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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

1000 replies

boys3 · 09/05/2021 19:21

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
AnyFucker · 21/05/2021 17:51

Noooo.

JanFebAnyMonth · 21/05/2021 18:18

^^ eloquent as ever, @AnyFucker.

Pivotthesofa · 21/05/2021 18:23

Thank you @Doomsdayisstillcoming
I guess the next few weeks will tell whether we are going to see a small increase that hopefully stays steady and doesn’t rise or whether its all out carnage again

MargaretThursday · 21/05/2021 18:23

5 letters more than AF's normal eloquence Grin

AnyFucker · 21/05/2021 18:26

I don’t like to waste words Smile

Doomsdayisstillcoming · 21/05/2021 18:50

It could just be some ropey reporting.

There was a ridiculously huge fall 17th into 18th. Maybe these are just the reality. I think you’d want to see some sort of modest fall for tomorrow. It’s still -5.4% for the week.

ajmouse · 21/05/2021 22:54

I really hope it's only a small increase and that this "Yorkshire variant" isn't much. I can't bear the thought of going back into the tunnel after finally feeling like we're emerging from it, I honestly keep thinking that if the past year and a bit is our way of life indefinitely (this being a very brief respite) I'm not sure I'd want to live it.

Frazzled2207 · 21/05/2021 23:35

@ajmouse

I really hope it's only a small increase and that this "Yorkshire variant" isn't much. I can't bear the thought of going back into the tunnel after finally feeling like we're emerging from it, I honestly keep thinking that if the past year and a bit is our way of life indefinitely (this being a very brief respite) I'm not sure I'd want to live it.
I spoke to my cousin in Chicago earlier. She was really surprised about all the talk about variants- she’s pretty clued up on the covid situation in the US and it really isn’t talked about there like it is here. I’m fairly sure it’s only in the UK where we do genomic sequencing that we’re that bothered. Covid is covid. Variants are inevitable. I’m not sure all the talk about variants is really that helpful (I’m blaming the media mostly not any of you !). Pfizer have no plans to tweak their vaccine yet to accommodate variants. The less covid there is around the less chances it will have to mutate. That’s what we have to concentrate on I think.
lonelyplanet · 22/05/2021 08:21

Frazzled - I think watching variants is really important as it helps to spot patterns and predict future problems. If we only look at England's current cases everything looks fine. However if you look at the spread of variants, it is clear that the Kent one is quickly on the decrease (most of the country) and the India one is increasingly rapidly (in pockets). This means everything could change very quickly. We need to be aware of this.

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/05/2021 08:34

However if you look at the spread of variants, it is clear that the Kent one is quickly on the decrease (most of the country) and the India one is increasingly rapidly (in pockets)

But this is almost certainy not becauase of some magic of the variant, it's because the existing strain was restricted in its transmission such that few people had the chance to catch out no matter how relaxed the new rules were. The virus was then seeded into new groups with lots of potential to spread, so it spreads quickly in those groups leading to a ratio of cases that is different, but it would've applied to any new seeding of the same variant, it simply wouldn't've been known.

You don't need to genomic sequencing to watch out for changes in patterns (not that it hurts of course, although it would be nice to spend the money of all of this on something more effective).

lonelyplanet · 22/05/2021 08:35

14/4 Kent 97% Indian 0%
28/4 Kent 95% Indian 2%
5/5 Kent 93% Indian 4%
12/5 Kent 90% Indian 8%
19/5 Kent 75% Indian 22%

The Indian variant percentage has been doubling week on week. This week it has tripled. Given that cases overall still remain stable, what we are currently seeing is the Indian variant replacing the decreasing Kent variant. However if the Indian one keeps increasing at this exponential rate there is likely to be a massive problem within a few weeks.

lonelyplanet · 22/05/2021 08:41

"But this is almost certainy not becauase of some magic of the variant, it's because the existing strain was restricted in its transmission such that few people had the chance to catch out no matter how relaxed the new rules were."

I'm not sure this is the case because we would be seeing a more even spread of rises across the country. Instead we are seeing small pockets where it is suddenly spreading very rapidly.

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/05/2021 08:43

lonelyplanet yes, but without the new seeding of the cases from India the cases would not have remained stable, they would have continued to decline, you're implying that the two variants are in competition - at the low levels we have they are not.

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/05/2021 08:53

lonelyplanet no a general rise everywhere is exactly not what you'd see, with a virus in decline due to restrictions, you end up with only a few people having it, and restrictions means they only mix with the same other people - you still go to work, but you work with the same folk, you still break the rules, but you break the rules with the same people, the main contact points the restrictions work to reduce the spread. so there's very little spread.

Occasionally you'll get a break out into a new community, and you'll get a spike in cases, that might happen when someone gets a new job in the factory bringing it with them, or a care home resident goes home from hospital with it undetected, or a new person enters a prison. That can lead to a big spike in that community because it spreads quickly in the whole community and not slowly.

What people returning from overseas did was create lots of these new community introductions, and the normal expectation would be for rapid spread within the pockets, particularly with the relative lack of restrictions. So pockets is exactly what you'd get from re-seeding of the virus, and because it was re-seeded from India, it's the Indian variant.

A general rise everywhere would be more worrying than introduction from outside.

lonelyplanet · 22/05/2021 09:09

"you're implying that the two variants are in competition - at the low levels we have they are not."

I'm not implying this at all. I'm saying that the Kent variant has run it's course and is on the decline. At the same time the Indian variant is increasing in some isolated areas. I am predicting that in a few weeks the spread will have increased enormously, like the Kent variant did in November.

"What people returning from overseas did was create lots of these new community introductions, and the normal expectation would be for rapid spread within the pockets, particularly with the relative lack of restrictions. So pockets is exactly what you'd get from re-seeding of the virus, and because it was re-seeded from India, it's the Indian variant".

But the cases are not at zero in most areas. The seeds are already everywhere. What we are seeing is a new variant that is spreading faster. I lifting if restrictions will have had some impact on the speed of spread but recent restrictions would not have controlled it. Schools have been open for a while now.

lonelyplanet · 22/05/2021 09:12

Sorry about the typos! It's/ its especially!!

lonelyplanet · 22/05/2021 09:20

Sirfred I think we're agreeing about the seeding

"A general rise everywhere would be more worrying than introduction from outside."

However the community transmission is now a much more important factor. The initial seeds have already reseeded multiple times and are spreading out from their pockets.

Firefliess · 22/05/2021 09:23

The Indian variant started out in communities the we know have always been quite prone to outbreaks, so it's possible that at first its faster growth in the UK was related to where it had seeded. But as time goes on and it goes on increasing, it starts to look as if it is more contagious, biologically. We can also look to India where they already had the Kent strain but then saw the Indian one grow much faster.

A more contagious strain means the proportion of people who need to be immune to avoid rapid growth in infections is bigger, so it might be sensible to hold back opening up for a few weeks until everyone has had one dose and as many as possible have had both. And to try to vaccinate more people, eg kids.

MRex · 22/05/2021 09:59

Sewage testing - the government article has a bit more detail than the papers so posting that: www.gov.uk/government/news/testing-and-sequencing-of-sewage-ramped-up-to-help-tackle-covid-19-outbreaks. Nice new EMHP lab in Exeter Science Park will even track for flu long term.

Firefliess · 22/05/2021 10:32

Data here on the effectiveness of vaccines against the Indian strain. Quite a significant reduction in effectiveness with just one dose, but only a slight fall with two doses. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1396015144233222144?s=19.

Firefliess · 22/05/2021 10:32

They link again, hopefully clickable this time twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1396015144233222144?s=19

ceeveebee · 22/05/2021 10:41

Given the age profile of cases in Bolton, it does seem that the vaccine must be having a massive effect. Only 1 case in the over 60s in Bolton on the latest complete specimen date of 16 May, vs 169 in the under 60s. Although appreciate this could equally be down to less social mixing etc

lonelyplanet · 22/05/2021 10:59

@ceeveebee

Given the age profile of cases in Bolton, it does seem that the vaccine must be having a massive effect. Only 1 case in the over 60s in Bolton on the latest complete specimen date of 16 May, vs 169 in the under 60s. Although appreciate this could equally be down to less social mixing etc
That's really good news,
Overthebow · 22/05/2021 11:05

That’s brilliant news. 40% of the adult population have had two doses now so just behaving some effect.

Frazzled2207 · 22/05/2021 11:18

@ceeveebee

Given the age profile of cases in Bolton, it does seem that the vaccine must be having a massive effect. Only 1 case in the over 60s in Bolton on the latest complete specimen date of 16 May, vs 169 in the under 60s. Although appreciate this could equally be down to less social mixing etc
it is, especially given the latest news about vaccines not being that effective against indian variant unless you've had two shots, it would appear to completely contradict it in fact.
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