Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

Yes, went in town on Saturday and it was really busy, at least pre-covid busy with browsing shoppers and people were not even trying to social distance/use hand gel etc. And up to this weekend it's been quiet and, on the whole, people have been pretty good.

The latest vaccination numbers (as of May 8) are: 52.1% (partially vaccinated) and 26% (fully vaccinated):

ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Good news (I think), hope EU/UK will follow within a few weeks.

"FDA authorises Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for emergency use in adolescents
US regulators authorised the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine for use in children as young as 12"

Canada approved last week.

@everythingthelighttouches
Fab infographic!!

Is anyone else struck by how the areas ringing alarm bells about the Indian variant are largely exactly the same places that were hotspots earlier on in the pandemic. Leicester and Blackburn in Darwen were both particularly badly hit and under prolonged local lockdown, Bolton was under local lockdown too. Interestingly, in Nottingham we've just had our first cases of the Indian variant, which are student linked. It was student outbreaks that led to us having the highest covid rate in the country at one point. Is it inevitable that the same areas will see problems again and again?

Regarding Bolton, GM leaders have been pushing for quicker vaccination, I believe in Scotland they are now doing this in Moray which has easily the highest rates. But government is not allowing.

In Bolton they are however going door to door to make sure people who should be vaccinated are. According to the MEN there is a lot of work going on on the ground to try and sort this. But Bolton has suffered with high rates for most of the pandemic and had extra restrictions for virtually all of last summer.

Article about Bolton
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ministers-urged-vaccinate-over-16s-20567883
Crazy that the info is not out there regarding age and ethnicity though once again “multi generational households” seem to be being blamed.

Perhaps the argument against doing anything (more local restrictions) from government is that the vulnerable are all vaccinated now. Outbreaks just have to be ridden out? Seems worrying.

It's an interesting point about some of the worse affected areas being those that where cases were highest last summer/early autumn. The ONS survey report published ethnic breakdowns at the time which were quite striking - at times the rates in Asian people was up to four or five times as high as the (very low at the time) rate in white people. They didn't shout loudly about this for obvious reasons - not helpful to fuel racism. The introduction of the Indian strain has obviously been into Asian communities as they're the ones most likely to have been visiting India. But it is possible i guess that the reason for growing case rates in some of these populations is related to the same factors that caused rates to grow in these areas back last year (eg crowded households, keyworker jobs, non-compliance with distancing) rather than anything inherent about the spreadability of the Indian strain. Plus of course we now have lower rates of vaccination in Asian communities, so more vulnerable people around for it to spread to. Plus within Asian communities, those who travel to India may be the people who are least cautious in other ways about limiting their social contacts.

One of the issues that the government will have over doing localised lockdowns is that again the growth areas at the moment are up north.

I know that relatives up north they felt that they were penalised by when "London was high and they were low, everywhere was locked down. When they were high and London was low, they did localised lockdowns."

Now actually I can see the logic each time, and I think they do too. There is an aspect that it spreads better from London outwards. However there is resentment there which will increase if that happens again, and I can see why.

But there was also resentment within the areas. One of my relatives their LA was low compared to the rest of the county, but were locked down with the rest of the county.
But they found that the higher areas were coming into theirs, the perception being, because it was lower. So when they started going up, they said that local people were blaming the out of area visitors (rightly or wrongly). Add into that, that there was an element of ethnicity due to the areas that were effected, so that gave some racial tensions too.

I don't think it would be an easy decision to make unless the local government is urging for it... and if the local government is Tory, then locals will blame the government anyway, and if they're not, will BJ listen to them?
Politics should play no role in this, but I'll be it would.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/10/britain-not-facing-third-covid-wave/

Scientists revise their February predictions in the light of the real world data on vaccines’ effect on serious illness and death.

I'm keeping a close eye on the dashboard at the moment. My ZOE app suggests cases in my area (NW London) have doubled in the last week however I'm not seeing this reflected in the official govt daily maps.

Not too concerned about the increase in cases on the dashboard from yesterday, as last week we had 3 days of lower reporting due to the bank holiday, so I was always expecting to see a slight 7-day rate rise this week. But given the information from ZOE I'm a bit more worried than I was previously!

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/10/britain-not-facing-third-covid-wave/

Scientists revise their February predictions in the light of the real world data on vaccines’ effect on serious illness and death.

Don't suppose anyone has a share token? 😬

@Firefliess

It's an interesting point about some of the worse affected areas being those that where cases were highest last summer/early autumn. The ONS survey report published ethnic breakdowns at the time which were quite striking - at times the rates in Asian people was up to four or five times as high as the (very low at the time) rate in white people. They didn't shout loudly about this for obvious reasons - not helpful to fuel racism. The introduction of the Indian strain has obviously been into Asian communities as they're the ones most likely to have been visiting India. But it is possible i guess that the reason for growing case rates in some of these populations is related to the same factors that caused rates to grow in these areas back last year (eg crowded households, keyworker jobs, non-compliance with distancing) rather than anything inherent about the spreadability of the Indian strain. Plus of course we now have lower rates of vaccination in Asian communities, so more vulnerable people around for it to spread to. Plus within Asian communities, those who travel to India may be the people who are least cautious in other ways about limiting their social contacts.

Absolutely. A perfect storm - you can't pinpoint a single reason. Across GM (and probably elsewhere) another issue has been the lack of real financial help available to those isolating who won't get paid. According to the MEN there might finally be plans now to address that but is a bit late now isn't it (but still welcome).

Being positive however, obviously the best thing is for the council public health teams to be able to get it quickly under control and not subject people locally to extra restrictions. Crossing all fingers.

@Lockheart

I'm keeping a close eye on the dashboard at the moment. My ZOE app suggests cases in my area (NW London) have doubled in the last week however I'm not seeing this reflected in the official govt daily maps.

Not too concerned about the increase in cases on the dashboard from yesterday, as last week we had 3 days of lower reporting due to the bank holiday, so I was always expecting to see a slight 7-day rate rise this week. But given the information from ZOE I'm a bit more worried than I was previously!

I think Phil Spector has previously suggested that once cases in certain areas get very low and/or there just aren't very many logging in from a particular area, the zoe predictions are far more likely to be 'off'. It's very reliable when there's literally loads of people ill, but far less so when hardly anyone. IMO.

Don't suppose anyone has a share token?

Unfortunately, I do not but here is the actual SAGE document discussed in the article:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984501/S1235_Eighty-eighth_SAGE_meeting.pdf

In summary:

• Most scientists believe some sort of "exit wave" is unavoidable;
• It should be lower than it was anticipated previously.

In most scenarios modelled, any peak in numbers of hospitalisations and deaths is smaller than any previous wave seen in England. The peaks are also smaller than modelled ahead of step 2 because new evidence suggests that vaccination may have a greater impact on transmission than previously assumed, including by reducing the extent to which vaccinated people who become infected then infect others. There has also been continued high uptake of vaccination which has contributed to the improved situation.

Thanks 😊

I suppose it stands to reason that cases will increase once people start mixing more but the data looks more positive that this won't translate into the same proportion of hospitalisation and deaths we were seeing previously

Thanks @Frazzled2207. I know when we're dealing with small numbers there's likely to be a lot of jumpy noise from day to day, but the numbers for Camden on ZOE have been consistently increasing for the last 5-7 days. I suppose we need to wait a bit longer to see the real trends!

Don't suppose anyone has a share token?

Stopping the page from loading before the paywall comes up is enough to get round the DT paywall. It should then load the whole article.

Anyone done a postal test recently? I did one for Zoe, posted Saturday morning and haven't had a result yet.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Don't suppose anyone has a share token?

Stopping the page from loading before the paywall comes up is enough to get round the DT paywall. It should then load the whole article.

It did, thanks for the tip 👍

Although there is a five day lag for cases at MSOA level this is the breakdown in Bolton by MSOA; highest to lowest cases in the most recent 7 day period.

Bolton has 35 MSOA so makes for a nice quintile split. Over 60% of cases from 20% of MSOAs. Far right shows the vaccine take up at MSOA level from the most recent published data (released last Thursday but taking its cut off on 2nd May) for 1st Doses - aged 45 upwards, and all ages; 2nd Doses - all ages.

Unlike Hyndburn (where cases have fallen back substantially) and Erewash; the age profile of the cases upsurge in Bolton looks to span a wider age range, although relatively few in the older age groups.

@MargaretThursday

Anyone done a postal test recently? I did one for Zoe, posted Saturday morning and haven't had a result yet.

Just got it (negative as expected).

That looks a good sign for vaccines @boys3

some proper Bolton data here. Near doubling in a week is very much driven by the under 40s but a significant rise in cases for 40-59 too,

twitter.com/julesmchamish/status/1392104046643793928