Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

key info is below, though overall it would appear to be correct?

Newly-reported cases at regional and local authority level within England are calculated as the daily change in the total number of cases. This means that for 18 May 2021, these show significantly lower numbers or zero, and do not reflect the actual number of new cases reported on that date.

@wintertravel1980

But SAGE modelling (and any modelling) is highly subjective and depends entirely on model inputs. Maths is actually easy - agreeing assumptions is hard.

Numbers can indeed add up very quickly just because vaccines are not 100% effective. Let us assume that whole of 52.66 million of the UK adult population gets vaccinated. Taking AZ efficacy (80%) - 10.5 million of people might still get Covid. If - say - 3% of them end up getting hospitalised, it is 315,000 people. A very large number. Once we account for the fact that 30% of the UK adults are still unvaccinated, 315k hospitalisations might quickly turn into 500k+.

The big question is how many hospitalisations we may see in the real world and this is exactly where the modelling assumptions come in. Small tweaks can lead to very different outcomes.

I thought with the vaccine tho it was around 99% efficient at reducing death or hospitalizations? So only 570k would have the possibility of being hospitalised and for that to happen every single adult in the uk would have to catch this variant?

Wouldn't it also mean that everyone would have to catch it simultaneously at exactly the same time? Seems unlikely, near impossible for everyone to get infected all at once.

520k even

@ILookAtTheFloor

Wouldn't it also mean that everyone would have to catch it simultaneously at exactly the same time? Seems unlikely, near impossible for everyone to get infected all at once.

Exactly, the worst case scenarios are always nearly impossible to actually happen... yet these are the ones that are reported.

I think we're going the right way about it... be cautious but until we see a ripening hospitalizations and deaths it needs to be business as usual (to what the current restrictions allow).

Rise in hospitalisations* sorry for typos!

@Needanewhat

Lewisham is definitely rising. Cases up by 39 yesterday. 60 today (that's on the zoe app).

Zoe is just an estimate and is not very reliable at a local level.

Currently the covid dashboard shows 4 cases reported in lewisham yesterday (although this is subject to change over the next few days)

LFD case removals by 7 day periods from 1st April

1st April. 105

8th April 672

15th April 949

22nd April 924

29th April 871

6th May 965

The biggest beneficiary accounting for population was Canterbury with 37 per 100,000 (61 actual cases); close to double the next highest Vale of White Horse with 19.9 per 100,000.

Yesterday for England the seven day average to 14th May was 1794 cases, with the adjustments today, and again to 14th May it is 1688.

Using the revised figures at the first easing on 12th April the seven day average was 2280.

@chatterbox That assumes 100% are vaccinated though, which is never quite going to happen. I think the estimates on the proportion protected from hospitalisation are mostly a bit lower than 99% too. If you have only 95% protection from the vaccine, plus a further 5% of people who are unvaccinated, that's about 5.7m people at risk, and if 5% if them require hospital that's 285,000 (if they all catch it) which is enough to overwhelm the NHS again if over the space of a few weeks or months.

The wider group spreading it around in this scenario would be the 13m under 18s, the 6m unvaccinated and, maybe 10% of the vaccinated - another 6m, so total of 25m spreaders, minus a bit for those who've had it already, so maybe 17m spreaders - enough to keep a virus going if it has a natural R if more than about 4.

Lewisham looks to have had a bit of a blip

6th to 9th May. 18 cases

10th to 13th May 50 cases

14th May back down to 5, and 3 on 15th. 15th largely reported through then for the last two days so far 2 and 4 cases.

@Firefliess oh yes I understand that. But with the reduction in transmition due to vaccine it would still be incredibly unlikely for enough people to catch the virus "at the same time" to overwhelm the NHS

They don't need to need hospital all at the same time though - doesn't take all that many at once to overwhelm the NHS. The peak of daily admissions in January this year was about 4000 a day.

I agree @Chatterbox1987 and not everyone exposed goes on to catch it anyway.

I was very exposed to the Kent variant (close physical contact, no ventilation etc) and I didn't catch it. This was before I was vaccinated.

www.gov.uk/government/news/surge-testing-to-be-deployed-in-nuneaton?fbclid=IwAR3sCjFr5brPpDQ_8D2RoIrXvsrGPUb0Mc4LNgutDqBXBa0Wf2r0TkGyCQo

Nuneaton is now a concern, although this official local govt notice doesn’t give any stats of course. What does the bit about not hesitating to take other measures if necessary mean - surge vaccination?

Apologies if this is an obvious question that has already been answered.

How soon after the big rise in cases in the autumn did the hospitalisations/deaths start to significantly increase?
ie, when will we have an idea of the impact of the vaccines on the conversion of cases into serious illness?

My weekly notes are that cases started rising again in the summer the week beginning 27/7 (although there was a blip week a couple of weeks before with some extra cases added). Deaths at that point they changed how they measured deaths so it looked like the week 10/8 was likely to rise, however they changed it half way through, the week you can say deaths definitely rose then is two weeks later 24/8.

Big jump in the autumn, first big jump (from 68k to 100k) was the week beginning 5/10, and the jump in deaths (800 to 1200) was 2 weeks later.

The biggest jump week (up 120k) was the week beginning 28/12, (so probably at least part due to lower rates over Christmas) and the biggest jump in deaths (2k) was the next week, so beginning 4/1. Again probably slightly due to bank holidays.

@sirfredfredgeorge

looks like the dashboard has finally listened to you, 4476 false positive LFTs removed

Oh dear, that means I'll have to start trusting the data rather than just discounting it all.

Good news really!

How many tests roughly does that cover?

Can you work out a false positive rate?

Mega drop in people in hospital in England.

Now down to 749, and only 59 admitted on 16th.

I can almost taste 770 U.K. wide.

This is a really interesting thread about Bolton as it breaks down the cases by age and which age groups are rising the fastest.
mobile.twitter.com/julesmchamish/status/1394671498032472064

The 50 to 59 age group increase is worrying as they should be mostly vaccinated.

@Doomsdayisstillcoming

Mega drop in people in hospital in England.

Now down to 749, and only 59 admitted on 16th.

I can almost taste 770 U.K. wide.

I'll go for 26th May. Would have been 24th if not for Bolton.

lonely they’ll have been offered vaccines, yes, but may not have taken them....

I'm looking at the west London boroughs Hounslow, Ealing, Brent and Harrow. PCR positivity had a slight upturn, but cases are dropping this week again and positivity is still extremely low. It's looking much better than it "should". Am I missing something or does London look ok to others?

ooh local vaccination data is now on the dashboard

The 0-4 age group is up 540%! Any data on the severity for children? Or too soon to tell?