Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

It is because no vaccine protects 100% so a small percentage of vaccinated people are likely to become very ill or even die.
The chance of a vaccinated person dying doesn't only depend on how effective the vaccine is but also how likely they are to come across the virus.
While cases are very low the chance of them coming across the virus is very small. Putting these together there is a very low chance of a vaccinated person dying.

If the new variant spreads like wildfire across the younger unvaccinated population, the chance of the vaccinated person coming across the vaccine increases dramatically, especially if vaccinated people can still spread it too. Then there will be that small percentage, maybe 3-5 percent who get ill enough to need hospitalising or even to die.
This is a small percentage, but it is a small percentage of a huge number and so still enough people to overwhelm the NHS.

But SAGE modelling (and any modelling) is highly subjective and depends entirely on model inputs. Maths is actually easy - agreeing assumptions is hard.

Numbers can indeed add up very quickly just because vaccines are not 100% effective. Let us assume that whole of 52.66 million of the UK adult population gets vaccinated. Taking AZ efficacy (80%) - 10.5 million of people might still get Covid. If - say - 3% of them end up getting hospitalised, it is 315,000 people. A very large number. Once we account for the fact that 30% of the UK adults are still unvaccinated, 315k hospitalisations might quickly turn into 500k+.

The big question is how many hospitalisations we may see in the real world and this is exactly where the modelling assumptions come in. Small tweaks can lead to very different outcomes.

I seem to have missed a big part of this but how many do get severe illness or die after vaccine? Double dose that is

I know you can get it but I did think we had data that showed they prevented worse outcomes

When people say 80% efficacy is that against getting it or against hospitalisation/ death

I am really hoping that we don't get local lockdowns in Greater Manchester in the near future ( or at all).
I'm due to visit my elderly mum on the next bank holiday weekend. She lives too far away to go for the day and o haven't seen her since Christmas 2019. We have only had 3 weeks since the start of the first lockdown when we have been able to stay away from home and I didn't realise it would only be 3 weeks! I was going to visit her last August but we got locked down again at the end of July!
Sorry not very statistically relevant. Just on my mind.

@MarshaBradyo this is still being worked out.

As people have said, a very small % of a huge number would be quite a large number of people in hospital.

When people say 80% efficacy is that against getting it or against hospitalisation/ death.

It's against developing a symptomatic case.

I then assumed 3% of symptomatic cases might get hospitalised. We can pick a different number - 1%, 2%, 5%. It is just a back of the envelope calculation - to demonstrate that in theory the numbers might still add up, even in the post vaccination world.

Thanks, I’m assuming the trials weren’t large enough to give us a good enough RW indication

Would Israel have some data? Although this is Pfizer

Surely India should have clear data by now on whether the vaccines protect?

@Bordois

Is it likely that these passports will remove/reduce the testing and quarantine requirements for vaccinated people?

I suspect yes eventually but government won't want to do that while there are still people who aren't eligible to be vaccinated. As that could be seen as 'unfair'. I imagine there could be a change once everyone has been offered two vaccinations.

@Needanewhat

Surely India should have clear data by now on whether the vaccines protect?

There's a whole range of numbers here that are all basically low: www.outlookindia.com/website/amp/india-news-which-covid-strain-causes-post-vaccination-deaths/382819. It seems the data isn't being collated in an effective manner aligned with actual vaccination dates, or if it is then it isn't readily available for review by lots of researchers. It's not massively helpful to know there were breakthrough infections after vaccination if it's just a week later.

ICMR estimate reported here is 4.5% breakthrough infections but mostly mild: m.economictimes.com/news/india/may-be-many-breakthrough-cases-but-mild/amp_articleshow/82446687.cms

Is it reasonable to suppose that everyone in India who has been vaccinated will have had their version of AZ? Or are other vaccines also being used?

There might not be data on Pfizer until we see what happens here.

Wouldn’t Israel have Pfizer data?

@sirfredfredgeorge looks like the dashboard has finally listened to you, 4476 false positive LFTs removed.

2412 / 7 today
2474 / 20 last week

Numbers still holding steady and more yellow areas showing on the map. Small drop in cases compared to last week and a larger drop in deaths reported.

@UserEleventyNine

Is it reasonable to suppose that everyone in India who has been vaccinated will have had their version of AZ? Or are other vaccines also being used?

There might not be data on Pfizer until we see what happens here.

India are also using Covaxin developed by Bharat Biotech and Sputnik V. Some states are having discussions with Pfizer but I’m not sure if they have progressed to orders/receipt.

I would be surprised if a lot of vaccine supporting data comes out of Central Govt. whilst there’s still a severe vaccine shortage in India and a surge of cases.

@EducatingArti I'm hoping there aren't local lockdowns too, but only because last time some of the GM population didn't listen.
They travelled around out of area quite a lot.

Wouldn’t Israel have Pfizer data?

But how many cases of the India variant does Israel have - if any - to judge how effective Pfizer is against it?

(People in hospital and deaths still going in the right direction today, and those are the statistics that matter.)

@UserEleventyNine

Wouldn’t Israel have Pfizer data?

But how many cases of the India variant does Israel have - if any - to judge how effective Pfizer is against it?

(People in hospital and deaths still going in the right direction today, and those are the statistics that matter.)

Oh right true the Indian variant, I was thinking more of the idea that vaccines don’t always prevent hospitalisation or death

I suppose we really won’t know for a few weeks

I'm confused (doesn't take much these days!!)

Are today's numbers correct or have they been affected by the removal of LFT results?

I thought they'd adjust for these weeks ago & stopped counting them?

looks like the dashboard has finally listened to you, 4476 false positive LFTs removed

Oh dear, that means I'll have to start trusting the data rather than just discounting it all.

Good news really!

Israel have been detecting B.1.617 lineage cases since mid/end of April.

Lewisham is definitely rising. Cases up by 39 yesterday. 60 today (that's on the zoe app).

Papers are panicking about cases going up , but as far as I can see hospital admissions are not shooting up and neither are deaths ?

Testing will be up I would think as people aware of new variant and will start being more vigilant?

So unless hospital cases shoot up because this variant affects younger people more than the other variants we should be holding our nerve atm.

@LatteLoverLovesLattes

I'm confused (doesn't take much these days!!)

Are today's numbers correct or have they been affected by the removal of LFT results?

I thought they'd adjust for these weeks ago & stopped counting them?

they are definitely affected by the removal. So for example there were 177 new cases in Bolton worryingly but 39 removals hence a net gain of 138 (unless the removals are all of cases double counted within the same timeframe in which case I suppose that makes sense?)

@LatteLoverLovesLattes

I'm confused (doesn't take much these days!!)

Are today's numbers correct or have they been affected by the removal of LFT results?

I thought they'd adjust for these weeks ago & stopped counting them?

Cases reported today are correct. The warning says numbers not correct at local level, though there appears to be plausible looking data in there are regional and local level (no minus numbers, and they're not all zeros) Looking by specimen date probably safest.