Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

It's NIHR, but I can't find the paper.

Anyway, congrats on your antibodies! Exciting to know you have them.

I’d assume expiry date meant expiry date of the batch given. I think they’re being very careful about these vaccines.

I've had both jabs (second one on 16 March) and my 'passport' expires on 20 June too.

More pleased for DS3, who has also had both same time as me, and hopefully in the overwhelming majority.

Particularly anecdote alert given where a fair number of his peers and him headed after their exam yesterday morning. ”we were lucky to get a table Mum” it’s not even as if they have finished exams yet

@borntobequiet

I’d assume expiry date meant expiry date of the batch given. I think they’re being very careful about these vaccines.

It would be very coincidental for us all to have the same date for vaccines given miles and weeks apart though? I am convinced it’s about the time limit on the certificate, it has a QR code so probably expires after a certain time

Amazing how some people will lie using anything at all! We were supposed to have someone quote for some work. He couldn't make it on one date because he'd "just been invited for his second jab and told to go today", then he suddenly couldn't make it today "because the queue for my second jab is taking too long". I reminded him he'd told me he couldn't attend on X date due to getting his second jab and said not to worry about coming to quote.

On my app previously it just showed that I had been vaccinated, now its letting me download a certificate to use for travel.

@ceeveebee - free trials for QR code software expire after 14 days, so the government must have bought at least a few months' subscription. We'll see tomorrow if it says 21st or still 30th.

I might have the expiry date of the batch I was given at home. I’ll have a look after work.

I suppose it might be 20th of June because that’s the day before the next changes come in.

My covid certificate says 20th June too. I assume everyone's is? Had my 2nd jab in April.

Bemused that the vaccine name is Comirnaty, apparently that's the name of the Pfizer jab and I really had no idea it was called that until I downloaded my certificate.

Can anyone help me with this? Sorry if its a bit of a noddy question, but I have seen so many versions of this graph, I cant keep my thoughts straight anymore!

This is a RP131 graph plotting actual hospital admission data against the warwick calculations - what was never made clear when this graph was posted on here before that there were several different scenarios modelled based on different roadmap strategies. It was always implied that the big pink/purple line was the strategy we were following, but I've seen a comment saying that it we are actually following the green one?

Does anyone know what line we should be looking at?

@ILookAtTheFloor

My covid certificate says 20th June too. I assume everyone's is? Had my 2nd jab in April.

Bemused that the vaccine name is Comirnaty, apparently that's the name of the Pfizer jab and I really had no idea it was called that until I downloaded my certificate.

AZ looks to be "vaxzevria"

@ILookAtTheFloor

My covid certificate says 20th June too. I assume everyone's is? Had my 2nd jab in April.

Bemused that the vaccine name is Comirnaty, apparently that's the name of the Pfizer jab and I really had no idea it was called that until I downloaded my certificate.

Mine says 20th June and I've just had it done too!

Maybe its a coincidence that it expires before the next date on the roadmap...

Does anyone know what line we should be looking at?

None of them, as none of the scenarios are valid - the assumptions in them have already been proved not to be true - that's not to say the models weren't useful at the time, but unless you re-run the models with the assumptions replaced with actuals then there's no use comparing the data to the reality.

So we need the models re-run with the new data, the modellers never publish these, so we have no idea how accurate the models were.

So they were overly pessimistic as per another comment on the twitter thread? It was discussed on here that they had assumed a lower level of efficacy and uptake in vaccination than actually happened but there so much conflicting information it hurts my brain trying to untangle it 😫

@ILookAtTheFloor

My covid certificate says 20th June too. I assume everyone's is? Had my 2nd jab in April.

Bemused that the vaccine name is Comirnaty, apparently that's the name of the Pfizer jab and I really had no idea it was called that until I downloaded my certificate.

They're using the EU names as presumably expect people to travel to EU.

I prefer the Indian Covishield. Mine says Vaxzevria, but I was an Indian batch so I should have got Covishield if it was based on location of manufacturing, which means it's named that way just to help EU travel.

Is it likely that these passports will remove/reduce the testing and quarantine requirements for vaccinated people?

I don't know what to think either. Just read the Twitter thread by Tom Wenseleers twitter.com/TWenseleers which seems pretty bleak and says new variant might have a ~60% advantage over other variants.

Zoe's numbers have gone up again (sigh...). It is only one day though so let us wait and see the trend.

Interesting thread ColouringPencils and it has what I was going to ask a question about on here last night.

Decline of S gene dropout

This is only going to work for a limited time while b.1.117 declines but is a rough proxy for increasing other variants (largely b.1.617.2)

@wintertravel1980

Zoe's numbers have gone up again (sigh...). It is only one day though so let us wait and see the trend.

I feel like they might be a bit more bumpy from now on as things reopen and the vaccination programme progresses as long as the government continues to utilise other suppression methods where needed (mass testing, local restrictions etc.). Truth be told I’m hoping for longer term bumpy rather than straight rises.

I understand why the new variant being more transmissible is a big concern, but surely even if it is, any third wave still wouldn't be as bad as January as we have more people vaccinated?

Can someone explain if that genuinely isn't the case, because I can't seen to understand it.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/previous-waves-have-relatively-small-modellers-worried-indian/

" the answer comes down to simple, if counterintuitive, maths. Professor Adam Kucharski, one of the Sage modellers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine, explains it like this: “The issue is that many people have a mental image that we’ve [already] had the biggest possible epidemic waves, whereas we’ve actually had ones that are relatively small compared to what could have happened without control measures in place.

“Because of these controls, only a fraction of the people who could have got infected in the past year or so have been infected, so they’re still out there.

“Of course, for many of these people vaccines have now decreased their risk substantially. But a very large number of infections that come with a very small individual level of risk can produce a similar outcome to a smaller epidemic that carries a larger individual level of risk”.

And this is exactly what the Sage modelling shows"