Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

Phil spector has just tweeted a range of optimistic thoughts which is nice of him!

I don't understand why you are saying that the build up of vaccine immunity in the younger population should start making a difference in a week. Most under 35s will still be totally unvaccinated?

@herecomesthesun I'd interpret that as meaning that the vaccines are working just fine against all strains in widespread circulation. But the social distancing rules (which are pretty much all that's holding back cases in the younger age groups) are not sufficient in many areas against the new strain. We either 1) increase social distancing at least in areas with high rates (close pubs, schools, etc), 2) vaccinate very fast indeed in these areas, or 3) let it rip through schools and social groups of under 30s, with the unvaccinated and unlucky in the older age groups predominantly taking the hit. I'm not sure Option 3 here will be openly debated as a policy option - it'll just be what happens if we don't do either Options 1 or 2.

Most under 35s will still be totally unvaccinated?

Both Bolton and Blackburn seem to be de-facto offering vaccines to everyone over 18. It is not publicised at the national level since it goes against JCVI recommendations but, according to the twitter account of one of the Bolton's councillors, "if you live in Bolton and pop up for the vaccine, the vaccine team will find a reason to vaccinate you".

@Frazzled2207

Phil spector has just tweeted a range of optimistic thoughts which is nice of him!

Tim.

Tim Spector.

This was Phil Spector.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Spector

(Sorry, not picking on you, just seen a few people do it now ;-))

@wintertravel1980
That's assuming that the Indian variant can be contained in Bolton and Blackburn. If it is already out in the country wider than this it may not make much difference. I think the jury is out on whether it has already spread enough to cause problems across the country. I hope we have caught it in time but I fear not and Fireflies 3 options might be the choices that we have.

That is a brilliant idea and I shall start pedantically doing this from now on (not relevant to this thread....usually)

Kier is a construction company. Keir is a possibly rather too bland leader of the opposition...

@Doomsdayisstillcoming - I saw on Twitter that at midnight last night there were 32 covid inpatients in NI - down from 1051 in Jan and thought of you!

@wintertravel1980

I think we can pretty much assume the Indian variant has either already become or is very close to becoming dominant across the UK.

I guess the question is whether existing level of vaccinations and pre-existing immunity is sufficient to contain it. The few days from early May to around May 11-12th represented the period of rapid growth (with Zoe numbers going up by more than 10% per day). However, it is possible that the trend has now stabilised. Zoe is flat to down, London numbers do not seem to be going out of control (yet). Surge vaccinations in Bolton and Blackburn should help a lot. The build up of vaccine immunity in the younger population should start making a difference in a week (rather than 21 days).

I am actually slightly more optimistic today than I was a week ago. Of course, I could be wrong.

I’ll take this slight optimism!

[quote lurker101]@Doomsdayisstillcoming - I saw on Twitter that at midnight last night there were 32 covid inpatients in NI - down from 1051 in Jan and thought of you![/quote]

Solid fall right there.

I’ve been thinking, I think we will hit 770 U.K.-wide even if the Indian variant goes mental. Just need two more -10% weeks.

Oh they’ve updated England to 17th. 14.5% fall week (948 to 810) to the 15th. Two minor falls for 16th and 17th so down to 798 (1.5% fall so far).

So 810 x 0.9 = 729.
Then 729 x 0.9 = 656.

I think Wales, Scotland, NI + 656 =

After Bolton and Blackburn, the next biggest area of local concern is Bedford, he says. He says surge testing is being deployed there.

This is Hancock in Commons.

Unless I have missed something, there is no surge testing in Bedford.

A Bedford council spokesman said on Friday that the mobile units were requested to start soon, so presumably it's about to start.

From the Mirror's Dan Bloom at 17:01, reported in the Guardian

NEW: Covid Indian variant has gone from 1,313 UK cases at the last count on Thursday, to 2,323 today. That's another 1,000 cases in only three/four days, and the lag in genomic sequencing means there'll be a lot more

So I'd cautiously suggest that there seems to be some further rise there? Though on a positive note the numbers are still relatively low.

Did he definitely say that, I’ve just been listening to him too and didn’t get that part?

I felt angry when he was going in about how “everyone knows how to keep hugging safe” etc. What a load of rubbish! And even if they did, they can choose not to “hug safely” can’t they?

Sorry. Rant.

The Sanger figures are of course, only for those who have got a PCR test, which has been positive and has been sequenced.

Not all get PCR tests when they should.

Not all infections are picked up by PCR.

Not all positives are sequenced (I think this is still the case in most areas?).

@PatriciaHolm

The Guardian says he did Jan. Not necessarily conclusive proof!

Fair enough piggy.

(Anyone:) is it correct that 236,000 fewer tests were reported today than last Monday, even including the surge testing? Posted on Parents Utd Fb Page, by a source who is usually accurate though.

is it correct that 236,000 fewer tests were reported today than last Monday, even including the surge testing?

Yes, it's correct (based on the government dashboard). As a result, I wouldn't read too much into the 16% week on week drop in reported cases. The numbers still seem flat (although if Zoe is right, they should start falling over next couple of days - at least, until we see the results of today's re-opening).

Hancock announced 86 councils have the variant in the Commons and the media being shocked about that.

But the Sanger new data says about twice that number of councils.....

@JanFebAnyMonth

Fair enough piggy.

(Anyone:) is it correct that 236,000 fewer tests were reported today than last Monday, even including the surge testing? Posted on Parents Utd Fb Page, by a source who is usually accurate though.

Also I had a lot of difficulty reporting a lateral flow test at the weekend. I did manage one this morning, but couldn't get the second registered, so there may be more tests done.

That’s true I’ve seen a couple of people saying the website wasn’t working.

However, whether that explains 236,000 fewer tests reported.... at a time when one would have hoped to see more people testing prior to mixing indoors etc? OK some newly testing wouldn’t bother reporting but I’d guess also that some of those wouldn’t realise that there’s no check on whether you do report.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Hancock announced 86 councils have the variant in the Commons and the media being shocked about that.

But the Sanger new data says about twice that number of councils.....

Is it possible that lots of 1-4 cases are in hotel quarantine and therefore not counted by DHSC as problem-variant-in-LA set but Sanger have them logged with GP MSOA?

Handcock announced that 86 councils had 5 or more cases. I don't think it is really at odds with the Sanger data?

ah yes OK 5 or more cases!!! Apologies