Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

@Piggywaspushed

Do you have that map for Bedford frazzled? Again, its vaccine numbers look average to OK on the face of it. I know where numbers are worst in the borough and those are derived (but not necessarily hugely BAME ) areas.

sorry no it was on the bbc website on an article specifically relating to Bolton. @boys3 might be able to find the raw data though.

Zoe's numbers have dropped again. North West seems to be doing much better but cases in Yorkshire might be picking up (especially in Leeds and Kirklees).

No worries frazzled : thanks.

@NuttyinNotts

Is there a possibility of confounding effects on vaccine uptake by age of population. What I'm thinking is that areas with large ethnic minority populations and densely populated inner city areas skew younger than average. We know the older age groups have higher uptake in general. So you'd expect an area known for being a retirement haven to have a higher vaccine uptake among the over 45s than somewhere with a younger average age, even if both areas had the same percentage vaccinated in each of their age bands.

To some extent yes, as taking just the over 45s is a bit of a blunt tool. Although it would be the average age of those aged 45 and over in an area that would need to be considered to understand how large a skew there is.

Equally the NHS only provides the age breakdown numbers at the overall level for a council area; no breakdown between sexes at that level, and nothing by ethnicity, which as firefliess suggests would paint a much more nuanced picture.

The weekly file does give some ethnicity estimates down to health board area, although these are again just overall figures not split by age; There is also the small matter of the largest group after White British being Not Stated / Unknown (all 3.5 million in that category).

Do my ears deceive me or did I hear Matt Hancock day last night that something like 18 were in hospital in Bolton (?) with Indian variant and that 5 of these had had one dose of vaccine.

I know that is very little data to go on but doesn’t that seem rather a high proportion of those vaccinated to people??

Of course the age and health status would make a big difference. But still...

@Piggywaspushed This is Bedford.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57140919

More than 6000 vaccinated in Bolton over the weekend. Doesn’t say if all first doses although it’s implied when it mentions previous hesitancy.

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57140919

More than 6000 vaccinated in Bolton over the weekend. Doesn’t say if all first doses although it’s implied when it mentions previous hesitancy.

I'm involved in the vaccination rollout (volunteer) and I'm fairly sure it's a lot more than that. There were about 6000 walk ins I'm told (vast majority 1st doses) at the Essa academy. But they were also vaccinating flat out at the Wanderers football ground - that was open to anyone via the national booking site and so presumably could have included non Boltonians. Similarly some Boltonians could have gone elsewhere for theirs. Possibly other sites in Bolton over the weekend too. All good stuff.

Wow @Frazzled2207, that sounds brilliant! Well done

Interesting boys. Thanks. The worst area on there is not one of the MSOAs (so far) with a cause for concern. It does have a large Asian community. One of the 'best' areas on there for vaccines is experiencing a lot of cases. In some ways, I guess this may be the good way round as it is mainly in young people so we want it not to spread onwards in Multi generational households to unvaccinated older people.

Latest data on sequencing from the Sanger institute is out: covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?p_type=line&show=B.1.617.2%2CB.1.1.7&view=chart&lineage=B.1.617.2&colorBy=p&scale=quadratic&latitude=53.493941&longitude=-3.393679&zoom=6.49&date=2021-05-08&area=overview&lambda_type=area

Doesn't look good. Play around with the selections on the chart to see how the Kent strain is falling nicely, but the new Indian strain growing fast.

From the download section from the Sanger link above; surveillance numbers by council area for 1.617.2

and

and, areas with no cases through surveillance (as yet) for the most recent week, but with cases previously picked up.

To my untutored eye @boys3 that looks as if the new variant is starting to spread across the country. Is that what you think too?

This is really making me rethink my plans this week...

@boys3 - thank you. How many LAs have >5 cases this week, how many 1-4 this week, how many 0 but had previous cases and how many 0 ever please?

oh dear. So it's basically everywhere apart from the SW peninsular. Not good.

@EducatingArti

To my untutored eye *@boys3* that looks as if the new variant is starting to spread across the country. Is that what you think too?

162 councils now appear in that download for the 1.617.2 Indian variant, so just over half of Councils in England.

Although the numbers with cases picked up each week through surveillance are since w/e 3rd April.

3rd April 1

10th April 9

17th April 26

24th April 61

1st May 92

8th May 126

Likely that more surveillance cases still to be added to that most recent week.

So does seem to be spreading.

However

1 council, Bolton, accounts for half the cases overall that standard surveillance has picked up.

The next 5 councils then take us past 50%

40 councils account for 80% of cases picked up through surveillance so far.

[quote MRex]@boys3 - thank you. How many LAs have >5 cases this week, how many 1-4 this week, how many 0 but had previous cases and how many 0 ever please?[/quote]
@mrex good question.

In order asked

45 (interpreted as >=5, as your next grouping is 1 to 4; 9 councils within the 45 had 5 cases picked up)

81

36

150

Although I have not checked to see whether Sanger list City of London and / or Isles of Scilly separately, or whether like case reporting they are wrapped into Hackney and Cornwall. The NHS does report vaccinations for them separately.

So the final number above could be 152

And to be really pedantic although PHE report daily cases four the four old Buckinghamshire districts ( a good thing in my book), Sanger like the NHS do for vaccinations just report at the new single Buckinghamshire unitary council level.

Thanks for that analysis @boys3. Really helpful in understanding what's going on. Is that all just cases picked up through routine surveillance? Or does it include surge testing of travellers? The latest data is from the fortnight ending the 8 May. India was put on the red list on 23 April, so you'd expect to see cases in travellers who came back just before the 23rd being still common in the first of those two weeks (ie last week in April)

Just standard surveillance so excludes surge testing and cases from know travel

Thanks, so I'm interpreting that 5 or more cases in one week is definitely over one household and therefore a problem. 45 LAs with a definite problem.
117 maybe a problem watch and see takes us to half the country, so it's definitely going to be the dominant variant.

I'd love to know how many doses the NHS has in hand right now to jab our way out of this. We can ignore 5.4m adults as unable or unwilling to get jabbed to get to 90% adults and 70% population vaccinated where natural immunity should be enough percentage addition for very low transmission. We have 20m on two doses, 16.5m on one dose, 10.8m adults still to be vaccinated. That's a lot of jabs still to go.

I'm now considering moving Wednesday's restaurant table to outside, and getting my second jab next week.

From the Guardian live feed - I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Covid spikes in worst UK hotspots driven by rising cases amongst young, analysis shows
Covid-19 rates in the UK’s worst hotspots are being driven by a sharp rise in cases among younger age groups, new analysis by PA Media shows. PA says:

Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn with Darwen are currently recording the highest Covid-19 rates in the UK, with the spread of the Indian variant of coronavirus driving a steep increase in cases.

But in each of the three areas, case rates among younger people are running at a much higher level than those for older age groups, according to analysis of the latest data by PA.

Bolton in Greater Manchester recorded 733 new cases of Covid-19 in the seven days to May 11, the latest data shows.

This is the equivalent of 254.9 cases per 100,000 people - the highest anywhere in the UK and the highest for the area since February 12, up sharply from 99.8 per 100,000 one week earlier.

The rate of new cases among people in Bolton aged 60 and over is just 59.9, however.

This is up only slightly from 35.3 a week earlier.

By contrast, the rate for those aged 10-19 in Bolton currently stands at 486.2 per 100,000, up sharply from 200.7 one week earlier, while for those aged 20-29 the rate has jumped from 147.9 to 310.0.

It means the rate in Bolton among 10-19 year-olds is more than eight times the rate for people 60 and over.

PA says the figures for Bedford, and for Blackburn with Darwen in Lancashire, show a broadly similar pattern.

I think we can pretty much assume the Indian variant has either already become or is very close to becoming dominant across the UK.

I guess the question is whether existing level of vaccinations and pre-existing immunity is sufficient to contain it. The few days from early May to around May 11-12th represented the period of rapid growth (with Zoe numbers going up by more than 10% per day). However, it is possible that the trend has now stabilised. Zoe is flat to down, London numbers do not seem to be going out of control (yet). Surge vaccinations in Bolton and Blackburn should help a lot. The build up of vaccine immunity in the younger population should start making a difference in a week (rather than 21 days).

I am actually slightly more optimistic today than I was a week ago. Of course, I could be wrong.