Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

@everythingthelighttouches

MRex

You said
“ I would guess the Indian variant will end up being shown to be a bit more transmissible than Kent, though nowhere near as much as 50%.”

But everything I am reading, including the latest SPI-M-O report (12th May, posted on page 9 of this thread by lonelyplanet) estimates 50% more transmissible than Kent.

Do these estimates tend to come down significantly?

Just a hunch, I have no specific knowledge. They didn't have much probability on that 50% and it appears more to be a perceived maximum. We need to remember that the first case was found in UK on 29th March, red list announced 19th April for 23rd April. If it's even as transmissible as Kent then all those infected and returning in that month would have infected most of their households plus some extras (idiots who don't isolate, unfortunates getting infectious after the 10 day isolation is up etc). But it isn't yet spreading much outside specific areas and it is growing slower than Kent did last year (vaccine impact hard to measure): mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666071724765185.

Cases still fairly level overall with a slight drop in england

2027 / 7 compared to 2047 / 5 last Saturday

But @MRex, as mentioned upthread, we have had more restrictions in place than when the Kent variant was first identified. Difficult to know really.

Yes with all the panic yesterday I am pleasantly surprised to see the slight drop in cases today. Hoping it stays that way.

We have had more restrictions, but also worse weather and more people not abiding by them. Difficult to compare really.

Worse weather ? The Kent varient was identified in November ?

@Frazzled2207

Just thinking if they do manage to move forward some people expecting dose 2 at 12 weeks to 8 weeks without impacting my on first doses then presumably that will free up some more first dose appointment next month. Sounds like an admin nightmare.

By March most first doses were AZ. So bringing forward those second doses will mainly require AZ vaccine, which we have plenty of now that we're not using it for the under 40s. So I don't think it'll make a huge impact. That's what was said at the press conference yesterday too. But won't help much next month either as it'll just mean more spare AZ vaccine then (send it to India maybe?)

@traumatisednoodle

Worse weather ? The Kent varient was identified in November ?

It was identified in September. We had a really warm September and October in the South where it started spreading. It was better weather here in October than it has been for much of May.

In fact we were happily socialising outside way into October, and were even outside at the pub early November. We haven’t been able to be outside nearly as much recently as we were then.

@traumatisednoodle

Worse weather ? The Kent varient was identified in November ?

I was sitting on the beach in a tee shirt eating bacon sarnies in early November.

Today it's windy, raining intermittantly, and I'm wearing two jumpers. Been like this for days.

You are right I knew (as a member of the public) about the Kent varrient in late November. Of course SAGE knew about it earlier

The Kent variant started to really grow in November during lockdown, it expanded fast from there as the restrictions were reduced up to 19th December, which largely were about what we have now - open shops!

I think numbers in Bolton are down. 70 something today compared with about 130 yesterday. Vg news unless it’s a lag issue.

MRex

“The Kent variant started to really grow in November during lockdown, it expanded fast from there as the restrictions were reduced up to 19th December, which largely were about what we have now - open shops!”

Yes but then wasn’t everything effectively closed again by 26th? 7 days later?

{have to admit I’ve completely lost track}

We’re about to open and let it run...

@everythingthelighttouches

MRex

“The Kent variant started to really grow in November during lockdown, it expanded fast from there as the restrictions were reduced up to 19th December, which largely were about what we have now - open shops!”

Yes but then wasn’t everything effectively closed again by 26th? 7 days later?

{have to admit I’ve completely lost track}

We’re about to open and let it run...

About 14,000 less people in hospital though.

Silver linings.

Doom your posts are always so joyful

Yes, definitely got a lot more going for us in terms of general virus levels and hospitalisations.

And I take the point about the Kent variant having been around a while.

MRex The John burn-murdoch post is brilliant, I was praising it on our last thread. It’s good to look at it again.

He had this great graph to compare Kent vs Indian variant and I’d like to see an updated version.

Another point to consider I guess would be when did surge testing for Kent start.

There's a pretty significant difference in the "share of sequenced cases" stuff though, case levels are way lower, and B.1.1.7 wasn't seeded into multiple places at once. Starting from 1 case, and starting from dozens widely geographically distributed (many of course already isolating) and against a lower background, then of course the share of cases is going to be completely different, you'd expect the multiple case introductions to actually grow much faster, not the same.

That’s quite a scary graph!

It would be good to plot hospital admissions on that graph too, to see if you saw the same correlation. My feeling at the moment (thanks to vaccines, time of year, natural immunity, maybe slightly better identification and isolation) is that you won’t, but I guess it’ll become clearer in the next 2/3 weeks.

It’ll be a real shame if we don’t hit 770 in hospital. I’ll put the Prosecco on ice for now.

There's many, many differences between the situation with the Kent variant in the autumn and the Indian one now:

• the Kent one started out with just one case and spread (undetected at first) across the general UK population. The Indian one in contrast was seeded many times into the country exclusively via people with links to India and has taken hold in a largely Asian set of the population, who we know experienced high transmission rates back last summer compared with the rest of the population, even when dealing with exactly the same strain. So at least some of the higher growth rate may be related to the behaviour and circumstances of the communities where it's growing (including higher vaccine hesitancy)

• The weather is cold for May but not actually as cold as last November

• Christmas

• Lateral flow tests now widely available

• (Probably most important of all) We now have over half the population vaccinated, including 95% of the most vulnerable.

So I don't think we should look too closely for parallels or say that because the government acted too slowly in the autumn, they're necessary doing the same now

Wait and see is the antithesis to early intervention. By the time it is evident, it's too late.

Especially when you have exponential growth.

Everyone consistently forgets that quite a few people under 40 have already had covid - and they are not all in the vaccinated group. And some of the "partially vaccinated" have topped up their antibodies from natural infection so less likely to pass covid on.

The weather may have been rubbish recently but it should be warming up now, not getting colder, as it was for the Kent variant.

Ring vaccination finished off smallpox, we should be doing that for covid. I'm sure the NHS will put vaccines into arms as fast as Boris will let them.

Boris will run this as hot as he dares - the NHS was collapsing before the last lockdown with oxygen running out and patients being transported hundreds of miles to find a bed. He will keep to his roadmap unless that happens again - and stuff the millions waiting for treatment.

Firefliss yes good points

MRrex thanks for info

Good to read this calm thread, a nice change from rest.

But we should be saying the government acted too slowly. They did, yet again. They should have put India on the red list days earlier and not allowed a rush back to beat hotel quarantine. Bolton is suffering for that, London is suffering for that.