Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

@alreadytaken

But we should be saying the government acted too slowly. They did, yet again. They should have put India on the red list days earlier and not allowed a rush back to beat hotel quarantine. Bolton is suffering for that, London is suffering for that.

I'd agree with you there, certainly.

The Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi said on Saturday on the basis of an observational study that 97.38 per cent of those vaccinated were protected from the COVID-19 infection and the chances of hospitalisation after the vaccination are 0.06 per cent.

www.hindustantimes.com/lifestyle/health/hospitalisation-chances-after-covid-vaccination-are-0-06-apollo-hospital-study-101621089347535.html

Well if this is correct at least the vaccines should still work as expected. Apparently the same version of the variant we have was circulating at the time of infection

I'm just trying to think through the timescale of the second wave. Do we know when the Kent variant was first raised as an issue? From memory it was around late September when cases started to shoot up to about 10k, then a lull, then they started rising again and there was a mini lockdown for the whole of November then we went into tiers but cases really took off in January?

@Bordois

I'm just trying to think through the timescale of the second wave. Do we know when the Kent variant was first raised as an issue? From memory it was around late September when cases started to shoot up to about 10k, then a lull, then they started rising again and there was a mini lockdown for the whole of November then we went into tiers but cases really took off in January?

I don’t think we knew about it until November when they said they had first noticed it in September. During the November lockdown cases went down everywhere except parts of Kent and it later became clear that that was because of the Kent variant. During December it spread throughout London and then got everywhere else in Dec/January. I think.

I'm in Kent. We first noticed a spike in Swale. Can't remember exactly when, but some time in October or the very end of September. Everyone was saying 'what's going on, is it the prisons?' A local news outlet ran a story about it, and no-one they spoke to knew what the cause was.

Then it began to spread to neighbouring LAs. At first I thought it might be secondary schoolchildren spreading it as they travelled to and from school by train, as it seemed to be following the railway line.

When we went into tiers, Kent was in a higher tier than elsewhere - all of Kent, although the really high numbers were mostly in the north of the county - as I said, along the railway line.

I can't remember when it was announced that it was a new variant,

The first cases sequenced were from September, but it wasn't noticed until November when more were discovered and they started using absence of the S to quickly spot it on PCRs. By end of the first week of December this group were highly concerned.

Bit of a misunderstanding above on the timeframe I mentioned, London came out of lockdown on 2nd December and went into lockdown on 19th December, don't forget those of us with family living further away didn't get to swap any Christmas presents until March down here! Some people had 2 weeks of going to the shops, that's all it took.

How come no one ever talks about Hungary? Worst death per population in the world. Now over 0.3% of their population has died of/with (not sure how they classify) covid?

I found this a while back which records the various lockdowns:-

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/timeline-lockdown-web.pdf

The increase in numbers in Septembers was, if I remember correctly, linked to Students going to University and then passing it back to families as they decided to go back home. A bit of a red herring possibly that initially distracted from the Kent Variant.

During October Kent numbers grew (as mentioned earlier blamed on prisons) and crept into Essex and the East London Boroughs. Lack of social distancing and 'white-van-man travel corridors" were heavily blamed.

Lockdown in November saw numbers in many areas fall, but in Kent, Essex and East London numbers continued to rise. I remember commenting at the time that I couldn't understand how in lockdown the East London Boroughs were spiralling.

Some time in January, it was estimated that the boroughs of Newham, Barking, Havering and Redbridge possibly had infection rates as high as 1 in 3.

It will be interesting to see whether the arrival of the Indian variant results in an increase in vaccination uptake - it was certainly very busy when I had mine today and they turned away anyone without a booking.

@lurker101

On the point about masks in schools - what is the general situation with “exam years”? I don’t know many people with kids, but the ones that have “exam year” kids are all finishing school over the next couple of weeks (when study leave would traditionally start). Is this widespread and plays into the Govt thinking on masks? I.e. eldest years more likely to spread therefore if they’re not in school limited perceived value to 11 yos etc. Wearing masks. Or is this purely limited to the small number of people I know...

Of the people I know locally with dc in exam years (all GCSEs), 2 are finishing in about 2/3 weeks (different schools to each other) and my dd is the odd one out and not finishing till 21st June (a third different school). All are in same county. So could be mixed picture across different schools?

and crept into Essex and the East London Boroughs....

Wasn't Thurrock very high at one point? Other end of the Dartford River Crossing.

@MargaretThursday I’ve also found it’s not been possible to report a Lft result on line . I tried yesterday evening and again today.

[quote wintertravel1980]I think there was some (fairly weak) evidence that a 12 week gap worked better than a 3 week gap for AZ. But whether 8 weeks is better or worse isn't really known.

Here is the actual study comparing vaccine efficacy results with different gaps between the two doses. The summary table on page 5 seems to indicate that the 12 week interval works better than the 9-11 weeks gap:

www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2900432-3[/quote]
Is anyone with some experience of interpreting scientific papers able to draw any conclusions regarding the discussion in of single doses of AZ, in the above referenced paper. Also is anyone able to tell me if when they refer to a gap of greater than 12 weeks what conclusions they would draw from this paper regarding a slightly greater gap than 12 weeks between doses? Say 14 or 16 weeks? Many thanks

@boys3

As a slight aside I was a little surprised to see that first dose vaccine rates in Bedford and Bolton are really quite similar. Both bumbling around in the lower reaches of the third quartile for most age bands. Bolton better (in a relative sense than I expected, and Bedford worse. Similar for second dose take up too.

While this is true for Bolton as a whole if you look at the vaccine take up per msoa (these have been circulating on Twitter) the msoas with the highest number of cases now are also easily the ones with the lowest vaccine take up. The maps mirror each other strongly.

@wintertravel1980 - thanks for the Lancet article, I missed it somehow earlier. Funny how we can each read things differently, the slight reductions in the 90-120 day group made me consider that around 9-17 weeks is the sweet spot but no particular difference within that. (Also that we're trying to take too much info from fairly small data samples, especially after 12 weeks.)

@Rainbowsandstorms - I'm just an amateur like you. It looks to me as though there was a slight drop in efficacy in the group 90-120 days, but it's suggest tiny numbers that you can't conclude too much with great confidence. A lot will depend on your age, your health, whether you've had covid before. If you can then it might be best to try to stick at around 12 weeks, but it looks like anything after 60 days (8 weeks 4 days) is ok and definitely don't go over 120 (17 weeks) as that's untested. Canada's moved to 16 weeks and that looks like roughly the edge of sensible.

While this is true for Bolton as a whole if you look at the vaccine take up per msoa (these have been circulating on Twitter) the msoas with the highest number of cases now are also easily the ones with the lowest vaccine take up. The maps mirror each other strongly.

Indeed, as I posted that on this thread five days ago. I'll show it again - bearing in mind it is five days old now - in case you missed it.

Good to know Twitter has caught up though.

Just been reading that there are 5 people in hospital in Bolton with the Indian variant who have had one vaccine dose and one that has has both doses ( though they are apparently frail) . I'm not sure how this works out in terms of percentages of cases of the Indian variant but I'm guessing that it is quite small. Obviously early days yet for this kind of statistic though

@Doomsdayisstillcoming

How come no one ever talks about Hungary? Worst death per population in the world. Now over 0.3% of their population has died of/with (not sure how they classify) covid?

The picture is even worse. The hospital death in normal times are quite high, but masked. Everyone in the country knows that. The problem is that more of the hospitals are crumbling than not. There are no working toilets on full wards; you have to take your toilet paper if you want any. Nurse/patient ratio is appalling. If doctors don't get their envelopes then you're fucked.

And the general health of the pensioner population is very poor. I have seen pensioners all over EU and by far the rural Hungarian people are worse than any other. Apart from a few photo shoot option facilities, it's very much the Balkans as you see in Kusturica films :( 5-6 big cities are way better, but that's it.

The other aspect is that although their is a border lock, the holes are as big as they get. It is easy to find the small loopholes that are designed in the system to let the wealthy go as they please.
Also, they propagated summer holidays to stupid extents - cheaper to go to Adria than in-house - that they took back a lot of virus and then in SEpt everything opened as if there was nothing. They closed things very late. And the population is also a problem: it is still a prevalent myth that it's not airborne, masks cause breathing difficulties, kids never get it, only really old people die of it.

@EducatingArti

Just been reading that there are 5 people in hospital in Bolton with the Indian variant who have had one vaccine dose and one that has has both doses ( though they are apparently frail) . I'm not sure how this works out in terms of percentages of cases of the Indian variant but I'm guessing that it is quite small. Obviously early days yet for this kind of statistic though

The article I saw said that, and also said that the "vast majority" had not been vaccinated, including 18 who were eligible for the vaccine but hadn't had it. Vaccine take up in Bolton is a bit lower than average, but if we assume 70% of eligible people have been vaccinated and the vaccines had no effect at all, we'd expect to see 70% of hospitalised cases (in eligible age groups) being vaccinated. But instead we see 6 out of 24 which is 25%, and only 1 out of 24 (5%) double dosed. Those numbers are too small to precisely calculate how well the vaccine works (and there are confounding factors such as Asian people being more likely to have traveled to India and also more likely to be unvaccinated), but I'd say the figures are broadly encouraging that the vaccines do work pretty well, and have probably saved around 36 people being hospitalised (if the vaccinated people had been admitted at the same rate as the unvaccinated), in addition to indirect benefits from slowing transmission.

including 18 who were eligible for the vaccine but hadn't had it

I wonder whether those kind of figures will appear routinely in govt reporting from now on? Fair enough, IMO, although I know there’ll always be a few people appalled because “you don’t know” what reasons they had. Also difficult from a GDPR perspective, thinking about it.

Those numbers are very small but they do sound encouraging if uptake remains high in nearly all places.

I think it's a very useful thing to be aware of.

Actually, it does sound rather like they’re being blamed for their own deaths. Maybe not such a good idea.

including 18 who were eligible for the vaccine but hadn't had it

I wonder whether those kind of figures will appear routinely in govt reporting from now on?

I think it's useful in calming fears about whether the vaccines are still effective.

But it's got to feature in govt information gathering and thinking and planning, whether or not it's reported.

It's one thing to think about delaying easing lockdown because of people who haven't yet been vaccinated but will be in a month.

It's quite another thing to think about doing it because of people who could have been vaccinated but haven't been. How long do you delay? How many more businesses will go under/jobs be lost in that time? What if they're never vaccinated?

It's a tricky balance. Pro:

1. At this early stage it's important to know how many vaccinated people end up unwell with this variant to get some facts out there, some threads yesterday looked like outright panic with some concerned whether vaccines work or not. (Why data from India didn't count baffles me, but anyway).
2. It's essential to know as part of the 4 tests, vaccine escape is critical to whether society can open up more.
3. Encouraging vaccine hesitant people is important to get to herd immunity and reduce the resources and impact of this virus. It's important not to exaggerate vaccine merits, but the merits also shouldn't be hidden from view to protect the feelings of those who chose not to have them. Against:
4. Risk that it sounds like people are being blamed, especially due to the need to distinguish between those who are young enough to have not yet been invited and those who have been.

At this point, I think it's unavoidable. Over time as we get more cases it'll move to percentages, which is always psychologically easier to manage.