Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

@Watapalava

Erm we have vaccines in our systems now tho

Erm, majority still only partially vaccinated. And a significant minority still yet to have their first.

@PrincessNutNuts

B117 doesn't evade vaccines either, but it's the reason 80,000 British people died in the second wave and the reason we've been in restrictions for 7 months

When the vast majority of those deaths occurred, the vaccination programme hadn't been extended to as many people or had time to produce immunity in those who died.

Also, vaccination doesn't just protect those who are vaccinated. It cuts transmission to those who aren't. Something else which was not in play in the early part of this year.

Almost all protection from aeevare disease has been proven from the first dose

The data massively proves vaccines work - wthat surely isn’t even up for debate

Severe

And of course, more people have actual had covid now, so more people will have a degree of natural immunity.

[quote TheVampiresWife]@PrincessNutNuts

B117 doesn't evade vaccines either, but it's the reason 80,000 British people died in the second wave and the reason we've been in restrictions for 7 months

When the vast majority of those deaths occurred, the vaccination programme hadn't been extended to as many people or had time to produce immunity in those who died.

Also, vaccination doesn't just protect those who are vaccinated. It cuts transmission to those who aren't. Something else which was not in play in the early part of this year.[/quote]
Do you think you might be conferring the benefits that would accrue from a vaccination programme that had fully vaccinated 100% of the population onto one that has fully vaccinated 28.3% (and so far left 46.2% completely unvaccinated)?

And disregarding the difference that a more transmissible variant makes?

@Watapalava

You’re forgetting the most important stat- we have Vaccinated almost 100% of those who died/needed treatment tho

I think you're assuming that 52% of the population is not in danger from covid because 48% were in the JCVI 9 priority groups which leads to confusion over the possibility that large numbers of people could still be admitted to hospital and/or die with a more transmissible variant.

I think you're focused on things being different (better) because we have vaccines now, and not considering how a more transmissible variant can make things different (worse).

You might be assuming that vaccines work 100% effectively in 100% of people - which leads to the belief that vaccinated people are safe now - which leads to bafflement at the possibility that large numbers of people could still be admitted to hospital and/or die.

Whether it’s more transmissible is one thing yes

But lots of people having a mild infection really isn’t going to lock us down again

If we see an uptick in cases that causes a subsequent uptick in deaths, and this results in further tightening, then I think that is the point where the covenant between ordinary people and public health officials (that has held up well so far), begins to fracture.

Where I live, we have been under more or less level 3 lockdown or above since September last year.

If there is no significant vaccine dividend to be had (and if we don't see it at 70% adult coverage, when do we see it, and how do we get there?), I really think people's patience will run out and our restrictions will become increasingly "leaky" as people ignore them in greater and greater numbers.

@Dissimilitude

If we see an uptick in cases that causes a subsequent uptick in deaths, and this results in further tightening, then I think that is the point where the covenant between ordinary people and public health officials (that has held up well so far), begins to fracture.

Where I live, we have been under more or less level 3 lockdown or above since September last year.

If there is no significant vaccine dividend to be had (and if we don't see it at 70% adult coverage, when do we see it, and how do we get there?), I really think people's patience will run out and our restrictions will become increasingly "leaky" as people ignore them in greater and greater numbers.

As long as we don't allow a lot of cases which leads to a variant that is better at evading immunity, we will see the benefit of the vaccines better once we get over the herd immunity threshold.

Vaccines can't do the job people expect of them when 46.2% of the population hasn't had one yet.

I hope the herd immunity threshold will be crossed in October/November but allowing tens of thousands of cases every month jeopardises that by making the herd immunity threshold higher and further out of reach.

Someone’s a bundle of fun.

@Gymsmile21

Someone’s a bundle of fun.

What do you mean?

The South African variant is in purple.

The Indian variant is in orange.

@Gymsmile21

Someone’s a bundle of fun.

Past caring tbh

As long as they don’t shut down people’s means of earning money and schools again. No excuse for that if we can keep deaths at the level they have been with vaccines.

Well, I was feeling like a bundle of fun myself and relaxing planning stay cations etc and now I'm extremely worried about this bastard new strain and I can't understand why we noticed it too late and stopped flights too bloody late, again.

@RedcurrantPuff

Past caring tbh

As long as they don’t shut down people’s means of earning money and schools again. No excuse for that if we can keep deaths at the level they have been with vaccines.

Tricky to that with 46.2% of the U.K. population still unvaccinated.

@Puttingouthefirewithgasoline

Well, I was feeling like a bundle of fun myself and relaxing planning stay cations etc and now I'm extremely worried about this bastard new strain and I can't understand why we noticed it too late and stopped flights too bloody late, again.

It's what we do.

Pretend "no evidence" means no danger and learn the hard way all over again.

How too bloody late? As far as I know no one has invented a crystal ball.

I am so tired of people salivating at the thought that we can all stay locked up forever!

I really wish that I would learn the lesson and stop reading this shit!

Goodnight All!

@Temp023

How too bloody late? As far as I know no one has invented a crystal ball.

I am so tired of people salivating at the thought that we can all stay locked up forever!

Do you think that's why they are so desperate every time to ignore the warnings? You think they secretly want to prolong this? It's hard to understand for those of us desperate to get back to normal asap. Each time, it's like why didn't we just take steps to contain the bloody virus!

I guess it's one explanation anyway.

The people I feel sorry for (amongst others) are those who have had their ability to earn a living taken away from them - the long Covid sufferers. Touch wood the specialist clinic's can help them recover or at least manage their illness.

Let's hope the government can get surge vaccinations out asap to the areas of concern. Fingers crossed it's enough to stop things deteriorating again.

@Temp023

How too bloody late? As far as I know no one has invented a crystal ball.

I am so tired of people salivating at the thought that we can all stay locked up forever!

Have a look at the 21st April from three weeks ago and wonder why more hasn't been done before now.

You can't even get surge testing in an area with tripling cases until the variant is declared a variant of concern.

Which it wasn't until Friday 7th May.

No crystal ball needed. The story was in the numbers.

@PrincessNutNuts that chart is very sobering, fuckssake what’s it going to look like in another 3 weeks. 😳

Not really @PrincessNutNuts given most of the people likely to die are in the section of the population who have been vaccinated already.

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@PrincessNutNuts that chart is very sobering, fuckssake what’s it going to look like in another 3 weeks. 😳[/quote]
Yep. And it's looked like that for three weeks and what the fuck have they been doing about it?