Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

I'm hoping they are going to do more than last time. From the media this morning, it looks to me that they will be more cautious. If it will be cautious enough is another thing.

@RedcurrantPuff

Not really *@PrincessNutNuts* given most of the people likely to die are in the section of the population who have been vaccinated already.

You're making the false assumption that vaccines work 100% effectively in 100% of people - which leads to the belief that vaccinated people are safe now - which leads to bafflement at the possibility that large numbers of people could still be admitted to hospital and/or die.

And also,

New variant, new rules. And we don't know them yet.

@PrincessNutNuts

I'd be interested to know your thoughts on this, I know from your previous posts that you felt very strongly that delaying the second dose of the vaccine was the wrong choice.

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[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

I'd be interested to know your thoughts on this, I know from your previous posts that you felt very strongly that delaying the second dose of the vaccine was the wrong choice.

apple.news/ADs3UldIZSIKlJAgXpmQvPA[/quote]

There's not enough detail there to form a proper opinion.

But my first instinct is that that's one tiny study of 175 people.

Given the ages of the people who died in January and February and March thousands of them would have had their first jab - but not their second.

The whole thing was a giant experiment really wasn't it?

I agree that more people will be admitted to hospital and die. As long as the NHS isn’t overwhelmed there shouldn’t be another lockdown. Vaccines should do the job of lockdown. You seem to think lockdown should be the default position. I don’t. It’s a last resort. If we can keep the wave to the size of previous ones with no lockdown then that is what should be done. You can’t lock up 66 million people indefinitely to stop tens of thousands of deaths. It doesn’t make sense.

But it’s clear from your other posts you are quite happy for the pandemic to continue and don’t want lockdown to be over.

I have said it before of course this it’s experimental the whole point of a novel virus is that the world is learning as we go and unlike a new flu virus we have little data to go on.

This variant seems at the moment to not evade vaccines.

I get your frustration at the fact we don’t surge test/track or trace/isolate as much as we should but I think we have to accept we are nearing the point of taking another leap into managing this alongside normal life

@RedcurrantPuff

I agree that more people will be admitted to hospital and die. As long as the NHS isn’t overwhelmed there shouldn’t be another lockdown. Vaccines should do the job of lockdown. You seem to think lockdown should be the default position. I don’t. It’s a last resort. If we can keep the wave to the size of previous ones with no lockdown then that is what should be done. You can’t lock up 66 million people indefinitely to stop tens of thousands of deaths. It doesn’t make sense.

‘locking up 66 million people’ like we’re on some kind of prison island and no one else in the world is going through a similar situation.

If wearing a face mask or not being able to eat in a restaurant for a while longer means saving tens of thousands of lives then I’m in.

If wearing a face mask or not being able to eat in a restaurant for a while longer means saving tens of thousands of lives then I’m in.

I think they are two different things though. We need to learn how to manage it as much as we can and I dont think shutting the hospitiality section for any longer and the effects of that is something we should be happy to continue to do.

Wearing masks however is (for MOST of us) a fairly easy thing to do, socially distancing as much as we can and being more thoughtful in who we have contact with - I bought something yesterday and it felt odd not shaking hands but it easily went through without it. I can have coffee and lunches with friends without close contact - I do not want the same with my parents.

@PrincessNutNuts

"The whole thing was a giant experiment really wasn't it?"

Well, yes. How could it not be? With an entirely new virus and an entirely new vaccine there will obviously be some element of the unknown.

But those who recommended the strategy do have some knowledge and basis for the recommendation, in spite of those unknowns, it hasn't just been plucked out of thin air. It looks as though it may well have been a really good move which is great.

Tricky to that with 46.2% of the U.K. population still unvaccinated

A good proportion of whom will have antibodies from previous infection.

@TheVampiresWife

Tricky to that with 46.2% of the U.K. population still unvaccinated

A good proportion of whom will have antibodies from previous infection.

Have you only had a cold or flu once?

@SonnetForSpring

But we know that previous covid infection DOES provide a level of immunity. In any event there are about 200 different viruses that cause "cold" symptoms (which incidentally is why there is no vaccine against a "cold") so it's really not an appropriate comparison.

I actually have only had the flu once, been vaccinated ever since and have never had the flu again.

@RedcurrantPuff

But it’s clear from your other posts you are quite happy for the pandemic to continue and don’t want lockdown to be over.

I prefer the term "Scout Mindset".

It's not about what I want, or parroting the line of my tribe, or saying what people want to hear

What matters is the truth.

And the truth is allowing a third wave to engulf us again would cost far more and keep us in restrictions far longer than taking a little time to take stock now, work out what's happening and try to stop it.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

"The whole thing was a giant experiment really wasn't it?"

Well, yes. How could it not be? With an entirely new virus and an entirely new vaccine there will obviously be some element of the unknown.

But those who recommended the strategy do have some knowledge and basis for the recommendation, in spite of those unknowns, it hasn't just been plucked out of thin air. It looks as though it may well have been a really good move which is great. [/quote]
The jury is still very much out on that.

How many of the 3000 people who died in March, or the 20,000 who died in February would still be alive if they'd had both jabs?

I think with the spacing though I think when the vaccine was in trial the question would have been

1. What is the shortest time we can leave between the 2 dosages in order to get proper information from it and decent efficacy. Because they wanted to get it cleared asap. I suspect 3 weeks was picked because of that not because it was the optimium time but because it was the optimium time in order to achieve getting the vaccine out.

2. However once it comes to delivering it to the public having been seen as safe a different question comes into play which is how many can you get one jab as soon as possible.

Your end goal is slightly different - which is why there is a different approach. The trials had to recommend 1) because that is what they did - it doesnt mean it is the best option.

Have you only had a cold or flu once?

I've had plenty of colds but flu, twice only. Covid is not a cold, or the flu. Comparing it to either is pointless.

@Sunshinegirl82 We're moving away from the 12 weeks gap to second doses at 8 weeks according to the PM just now. Maybe he hasn't seen that study?

@PrincessNutNuts one suspects because now the best thing to do is to have that gap? As I have said the optimium time is surely the one that best benefits the situation you are in.

So the current indian variant situation means that it is prudent to make sure that your vulnerable and over 50s are completely protected.

Look if we had unlimited doses of the vaccines there would I am sure be a different way of handling it. But we dont so the 12 week gap made sense when we started and now having first dosed a lot of over 40s the priority goes back to the second doses

@PrincessNutNuts

Well now that the over 50's have had their first dose it makes sense to accelerate the second dose if we can. It makes no sense to me to accelerate a second dose whilst leaving huge numbers of people with no protection at all.

The increased benefit of the longer gap has to be balanced against the need to deal with the new variant.

In the nicest possible way you strike me as seeing things in a very black and white way, things are right or they are wrong. Everything here is shades of grey, with numerous judgment calls thrown in.

"People who have had a second vaccine have greater protection" Whitty just said.

Which is why we shouldn't have withheld that protection from the most vulnerable causing thousands of them to die during the 12 week gap that was imposed.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

Well now that the over 50's have had their first dose it makes sense to accelerate the second dose if we can. It makes no sense to me to accelerate a second dose whilst leaving huge numbers of people with no protection at all.

The increased benefit of the longer gap has to be balanced against the need to deal with the new variant.

In the nicest possible way you strike me as seeing things in a very black and white way, things are right or they are wrong. Everything here is shades of grey, with numerous judgment calls thrown in.[/quote]
It's not black k and white.

It's maths.

A larger number of people died through withholding the protection of the second dose for months from the groups most likely to die.

@PrincessNutNuts

Not according to the recent US modelling

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/delaying-second-covid-vaccine-doses-can-save-lives-study-finds

Princess that’s no true

Say majority of protection comes from 2st dose and the longer the delay the better

The reason it saved lives was because obviously some protection is better than nothing. Vaccine supply is limited. Global demand. But - fully vaccinated is always better, and if there had been enough supply to fully vaccinate sooner even more lives would've been saved.

Now we're facing the new Indian variant of concern, full vaccination becomes even more important.