How long before the UK become India

[Dandylioness1]

The scenes coming from India right now are petrifying.

Takes me back to the scenes from Italy last year.

My question, how long do you think we have until we are seeing similar scenes here.
Do we need to be prepared for this?

Minimise what situation?

This thread was started on the premise that the UK was going to end up in the same situation as India.

People are, for whatever reason, getting their jollies deliberately stirring up fear and misinformation about the vaccines and saying they won't work against variants.

The fact is that the vaccines do appear to work against variants so the scaremongers will need to move on to something else.

Not at all new. Tired of tedious, goady statements lie yours, though.
Oh well 🤷‍♀️

• like (great Freudian slip though)

@Cornettoninja

I would suggest you actually read some of those threads yourself *@bordois* since the overwhelming response is correcting those kinds of statements with facts. Sometimes they even manage to do it without being patronising.

I do, and have. But I've no more patience for people who deliberately ignore actual facts in order to continue to push anti vax bollocks

Time will tell anyway. It feels all to familiar back throughout the summer months when anyone with fears of another wave was accused of scaremongering.
Granted the elderly and vunerable are vaccinated, many are socializing.
Let us hope for the best I suppose.
I'll be happy to have my fears quashed if it's over without another wave.

There may well be another wave in autumn/winter. In fact id be surprised if there weren't an increase in cases, just as with most other respiratory illnesses.

But the vaccines are working and we won't become India.

@Bordois

Minimise what situation?

This thread was started on the premise that the UK was going to end up in the same situation as India.

People are, for whatever reason, getting their jollies deliberately stirring up fear and misinformation about the vaccines and saying they won't work against variants.

The fact is that the vaccines do appear to work against variants so the scaremongers will need to move on to something else.

Because it isn’t outside the realms of possibility. It’s extremely unlikely for many reasons not limited to the fact that the size of our population gives us the option of more strategies than they could consider using with 1 billion + people. But we can’t say that vaccines are 100% the end of the possibility of any restrictions/large outbreaks in the UK because data is still rolling in both about the vaccines efficacy and the mutation path of the virus itself.

You’re right in that currently we’re in a good place and dangers that might set us back are looking less and less likely but you’re wrong to imply that anyone still concerned is ‘enjoying’ it simply because they can still see weaknesses in our plan. Nobody is completely safe from disruption to their lives until this is under control globally.

I would recommend getting used to it to some extent. We are very close to having a decent amount of herd immunity within the adult population (as in fully double dosed) but this means the younger age groups aren’t going to have any protection and those very rare severe cases in younger age groups are going to become slightly more common simply because of the maths. This is going to frighten some people and a lot of that depends on the media and their management of this information.

Look, I’m not anti-vax (had both doses) or lifting of restrictions (taken full advantage of that so far) but I am cautious that although things are getting better, and I expect them to continue that way, there are a lot of factors we simply have no control over and have the potential to cause problems.

Yes, at the moment there is a reassuring answer to most fears but to dismiss anyone voicing those as fear-monger or enjoying it is absolutely minimising the reality of covid, the reality of how much control we actually have and what we’ve learnt through experience over the past year.

There are people deliberately spreading misinformation and will not accept fact based discussion. I will call out their nonsense and not waste my time on them any more than necessary.

I'm not talking about rational fact based debate, being cautious or thinking ahead to what may be. Not sure why you leapt to the assumption you did about my initial post.

I never said anyone was enjoying it. But now you mention it, yes I think they do enjoy winding people up - its just another way to troll.

Fair enough @bordois but if you use ambiguous language like ‘some people’ I don’t think you can claim surprise when it appears to capture a group you claim it didn’t intend to.

The OP’s posts read in isolation don’t suggest trolling or fear-mongering to me but a legitimate concern they wanted to discuss the likelihood of. Their question was interpreted that way by others shutting down any discussion despite the OP trying to make it clear what they were asking.

There is an atmosphere on here sometimes recently where anything that isn’t positive is immediately pounced on as fear-mongering or trolling. I can absolutely see threads where that is the case, but a zero tolerance just isn’t realistic. Nothing in life is always positive and legitimate concerns exist. Also, I see far more actual fear mongering on unrelated boards than I do on this one.

Yes, and I clarified who/what I meant before your posts about minimising the situation, rewriting history and being patronising.

Not really though @Bordois. I appreciate what you’re saying but that’s absolutely not what you conveyed.

You used vague examples of other threads to imply that anyone agreeing with the OP (who I maintain wasn’t trolling or fear mongering - I’ve read their posts again) was enjoying speculation about the strength of our vulnerabilities. The patronising part comes in with comments of ‘are you new here?’ aimed at people who picked you up on that.

I don’t really know why I’m getting into it tbh. You either see it or you don’t. 🤷‍♀️

@Cornettoninja

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@1dayatatime if you’re only looking at raw figures then yes, on the face of it India isn’t doing badly, however case/fatalities don’t convey the whole situation. If you have more cases than your health system can cope with we witness scenes like we currently are in India and Brazil. If you had an island of 1000 and 100 with covid and one doctor their relative stats would read fine but the actual scenes on the ground would give a very different perspective.

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If you have more cases than your health system can cope with then more people die but this is not borne out by the Indian Covid death data.

As for the scenes on the ground then indeed it does looks like a horrific situation but again this is simply how it is reported in the media and again this not borne out by the Indian Covid death data.

Of course you could argue that the Indian Covid data is wrong or has been manipulated but this is a little bit Western condescending of a strong and developed country.

@Baileysforchristmas

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@1dayatatime nobody knows the true number of deaths in India as they are not recorded, an Indian news reporter said it’s probably 30 times that number. There’s no way India has had only 200,000 deaths.

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The Covid deaths are reported in India otherwise they would be the only country with zero Covid cases / deaths. Just because an Indian reporter says it's 30 times higher doesn't make it true. I could find a UK reporter that claims the vaccines all have microchips in them but that doesn't make it true.

Of course whether that data is accurate or falsified is a separate question. But given that India is a modern sophisticated country with a democratically elected Government I see no reason to question the data. Indeed to do so smacks a little of colonial patronising.

[quote BunsyGirl]@1dayatatime The following is a link to a excess deaths v Covid deaths chart produced by the Economist. India isn’t on there but a quick look at countries like Russia and Mexico will show you why the “official” Covid stats on Worldometer do not represent the true number of deaths for many countries:

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker[/quote]
What I find strange is that India with a population of 1.36 billion reports 202k Covid deaths and poster here question the validity of that data. Yet China with a population of 1.39 billion reports Covid deaths of less than 5k and posters believe these figures and claim they are a result of strong Chinese Government lock down measures.

As for the excess deaths I don't doubt the Economist but the article does state that in poorer countries other medical cases suffer as the resources are focused on Covid raising excess deaths. Also with no social welfare in poorer countries Covid measures create increased poverty which also raises excess deaths.

Also puzzled as to why Bulgaria which is an EU country has one of the highest disparities on Covid deaths and exceed deaths.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/01/were-burning-pyres-all-day-india-accused-of-undercounting-deaths

With Covid-19 patients unable to get into hospitals, many have been dying at home, often without ever getting tested. Meanwhile, state governments and local authorities stand accused of rampant miscounting, covering up and obfuscating the true death toll in their states. Over the past month, in the Karnataka city of Bangalore – where case numbers are among the fastest rising in the country – the figure for Covid-related deaths registered in crematoriums was twice the official death toll.
The allegations of a cover-up have been particularly prevalent in Uttar Pradesh, where the state government is controlled by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the hardline chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, has insisted that the state has no shortage of oxygen and threatened to prosecute those who “spread panic”. Authorities have denied any cover-ups.

The longer India tries to hide the figures the worse this situation will be.

It was a statement that jarred with the devastating images and accounts that have flowed out of India in the past fortnight, of hospitals and morgues filled to capacity, people dying on pavements from scarcity of oxygen, and crematoriums and graveyards visibly overflowing with bodies.

I assume you've never been to India? There is a huge rural population who live miles from any healthcare beyond the basics. We will never be like India. The population in India is approx 1.2bn. we have 67k.

Why is it OK for the scaremongerers to compare the UK with india, but not with Sweden, Florida or Texas? I swear some people just love a lockdown.

Oh Gawd, who resurrected this one?
Some threads really should be left to just die!

@1dayatatime I don’t believe China’s numbers either.

What I find strange is that India with a population of 1.36 billion reports 202k Covid deaths and poster here question the validity of that data. Yet China with a population of 1.39 billion reports Covid deaths of less than 5k and posters believe these figures and claim they are a result of strong Chinese Government lock down measures.
Obviously it's not the same posters is it. Everyone i know is aware that China's figures are obviously false.

I don't think anyone believed China's figures since last February when Italy started getting infections.

Many countries have lost control of their case volumes at some point, and it's obvious that India does not have accurate reporting right now for cases because there simply aren't enough tests and a policy to only highlight deaths as covid if they had a positive test while alive. Comparing countries with each other is very difficult; there are wildly varying levels of testing, different standards of tracking deaths in general, willingness to put covid on a death certificate varies, different healthcare availability affects the proportion of cases that become overwhelming, even within countries there can be undercounting at some points (e.g. UK first wave) and not later etc. The Economist is helpful as far as it goes, but can only accurately reflect part of the picture and only for countries that actually report all their deaths eventually.

Highlighting internal corruption in actively hiding death numbers is important, as well as highlighting systemic failures in insufficient tests being available, but those local issues shouldn't affect understanding of whether or not there is a major disaster occurring, nor should they affect support provided when the healthcare system is so clearly failing. In famines it's also common for there to be some debates about causes, theft of goods etc; but people are still starving and deserving of help. Each covid case is just another human trying to live. If more medical help, oxygen or drugs are needed, then they're needed; whether the correct case number is 400,000 of 4,000,000 people need help.

@1dayatatime I don’t believe China’s numbers and a lot of posters have said the same over the past 12 months. Maybe not on this thread, but this thread is about India not China. You made a point about people not being to able to interpret data (which is a fair and valid point). However, you failed to recognise that the data itself can also be flawed.

@1dayatatime

If you have more cases than your health system can cope with then more people die but this is not borne out by the Indian Covid death data

Well death isn’t the only issue that will overwhelm a health system, a lot of covid cases will survive with medical support provided you have the medical support available.

As for the scenes on the ground then indeed it does looks like a horrific situation but again this is simply how it is reported in the media and again this not borne out by the Indian Covid death data

Whilst I agree information from media sources isn’t without bias I think it’s foolish to discount it entirely as an overview of the situation. Neither you or I are able to see the situation in its entirety across India to see for ourselves to confirm anything. There are a variety of sources available as a gauge for what’s actually happening, some more reliable than others of course, but overwhelming the message is that things are very bad. There are appeals on various social media platforms from individuals for oxygen or where they can go for medical attention along with many, many personal accounts.

If you’re determined to only go by the death data (which is also not flawless) then you’re denying a much bigger picture and dismissing piles of evidence without even considering it’s validity. It’s a very narrow and dismissive view. I can concede that not all sources will be accurate and in some cases false but I wonder if you’re able to concede the opposite and if not why not?

Of course you could argue that the Indian Covid data is wrong or has been manipulated but this is a little bit Western condescending of a strong and developed country

western condescending? Not really, people are asking for help and it’s being given the same way it was when patients were transported between countries in Europe, Turkey in particular taking patients, in the first European wave when systems were overwhelmed. The UK has a strong connection to India through immigration and the current situation is directly impacting families here right now. There is a demand for up to date news from India for many people personally.

Even if it was ‘western condescending’ I’m struggling to see what your actually implying here? Ignore it?

I don’t think the Indian data is manipulated but I don’t think it’s accurate. Thousands of births and deaths go unregistered in India every year and have done since long before the pandemic, it’s a well documented issue. Add it that the current chaos and yes, I believe that there will be many cases and fatalities that never make it to the official tally. India is not alone in this phenomenon during this pandemic and many countries have revised their numbers at various points due to the sheer influx of numbers at peak surge times. Globally speaking I expect it to be a number of years before the data is thoroughly collated and verified to give a generally reliable count for each country.

I’m curious about your motivation to push your POV tbh.

@1dayatatime

From the Guardian

Yes, it’s become obvious in recent weeks that on a state level the government isn’t being honest about the death rates. The official numbers in no way match up to the number of bodies that are piling up between hospital morgues and crematoriums – the true figure is believed in some instances to be as much as 10 times higher. Local journalists have been stationed outside crematoriums and been counting the bodies themselves. Data is what helps you understand and fight a crisis, so to lie or obfuscate is to hurt the people and to prevent the correct resources coming in.