How long before the UK become India

[Dandylioness1]

The scenes coming from India right now are petrifying.

Takes me back to the scenes from Italy last year.

My question, how long do you think we have until we are seeing similar scenes here.
Do we need to be prepared for this?

[quote JanuaryJonez]I know it's the Daily Mail, but this is their leading story right now...

India Covid: Second wave 'far more infectious and far more deadly'
mol.im/a/9514787[/quote]
Diabetes, rather than covid strain, will be a highly significant factor in India's outcome and is likely a reason that younger patients are being affected:

Diabetes correlated with severe covid:
www.diabetes.org/coronavirus-covid-19/how-coronavirus-impacts-people-with-diabetes

Extremely high prevalence of diabetes in India:
www.diabetes.co.uk/global-diabetes/diabetes-in-india.html

[quote Baileysforchristmas]@PrincessNutNuts it could’be got bad here but not like India, there was a video of a dead body falling out of an ambulance as it went round the corner, they left it there. A man left his mums dead body on the street, they’ve run out of stretchers and are carrying dead bodies in sheets ton the temporary morgue[/quote]
India is what happens when a government allows covid to outstrip the infrastructure in place.

Which can happen anywhere.

Our government had just in time lockdowns to prevent it - or as they put it to "protect the NHS"

Extra infrastructure was out in place - temporary morgues and refrigerated lorries to house bodies in hospital car parks etc. Retired NHS staff were brought back.

But you can't possibly do that enough to keep pace with exponential spread. You inevitably run out of trained staff, oxygen and drugs etc.

It's reassuring to believe that "India" or "Brazil" couldn't happen here, but if enough people are ill with covid at the same time we could run out of resources as much as anyone.

I posted last week about the impact of the UK strain in India (only in the UK is it known as the 'Kent' strain). It's a major driving factor in the awful situation they have going on.

It's shocking the UK government didn't include diabetes, particularly for those over 40, in the shielding group. I really hope they'll be added in so they're eligible for the 3rd booster shot in the autumn.

It's reassuring to believe that "India" or "Brazil" couldn't happen here, but if enough people are ill with covid at the same time we could run out of resources as much as anyone

Absolutely agree and with the rest of your post @PrincessNutNuts. In fact you can replace covid with anything requiring hospital attention and you’ve got a problem.

I’ve seen people criticising the NHS as being unprepared but the fact is no one will pay (through taxation or privately) for hospital resources to be standing idle 99% of the time for the rare occasion it’s needed on such a massive scale. That’s not to take away from the arguments that the NHS is under resources and needs investment but there’s simply no healthcare system set up for this. Some countries appear to have got the balance of organising treatment (I’m thinking Germany) but even that’s got limitations at some point.

Yes but the UK don’t have 800 million poor that will starve to death if you lockdown, so because we can afford to lockdown we won’t see what happening in India. I don’t know how they will get their numbers down 🤷‍♀️

@Baileysforchristmas that’s true enough but on the face of it there have been very obvious errors made in the suppression

@TheGuru87

I find it odd that so many people are dismissing the OPs ideas, as some sort of hysteria.

It's a valid point, we already know the vaccines are not as effective give against the Brazilian and SA variant.

The new variant in India has more mutations, these variants are becoming more prevalent in the UK.

As the vaccines are not as effective and not everyone has been vaccinated yet, it's highly likely we will face another wave.

Absolutely this!

I’m dismissing it as 800 million could starve to death if India fully lockdown for a substantial amount of time. In the UK we don’t have the same issues.

@Baileysforchristmas

I’m dismissing it as 800 million could starve to death if India fully lockdown for a substantial amount of time. In the UK we don’t have the same issues.

This is true but still don't fancy a third wave esp after BJ's comments on bodies piling up.

I’m not saying we are out of this Scott free, we’re not but we are not India, we don’t have the same issues to deal with. Do you really think the numbers are correct from India? It is a lot worse. I think it’s been spreading since the first wave but it’s only the middle and upper class that will be recorded, half of the population won’t even be counted whatever they died of or infection numbers are.

I think they are a LOT higher. I agree, they have a poor infrastructure esp in health care, a lot of poverty. Its so sad.

I just don't think we should be complacent. That is my worry! Cases are creeping up where I come from. Saying that, lets hope that cases don't mean hospital admissions.

@neveradullmoment99 I agree we shouldn’t become complacent but we will never be India, population and poverty are worlds away form each other.

Having been to India and seen the poverty and poor people living together on the street and in the slums, no I don't think we will have the same scenes here. I personally think the covid numbers are far higher than reported. I can't see how they wouldn't be when people are living with out basic facilities (to us) such as a toilet/sewage system and fresh water. India is an amazing country full of culture but how some people live is so so sad, I saw such horrible things and I think we are so lucky to live in the UK. I honestly don't think we will see the same scenes here. The two countries really aren't comparable.

@Baileysforchristmas

I’m dismissing it as 800 million could starve to death if India fully lockdown for a substantial amount of time. In the UK we don’t have the same issues.

Although I understand and agree with why India can’t lockdown like we did, that’s not necessarily going to prevent food shortages and hunger if they experience issues like Brazil. www.nytimes.com/2021/04/23/world/americas/covid-brazil-hunger.html

It’s certainly a privileged position to be able to be even able to consider it as an option.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9517605/Coronavirus-Kent-variant-surging-India-cases-spike-second-wave-crisis.html

New Daily Mail article.

There is also the hygiene issue of toilets in India, which won’t help with any diseases

www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/Politics/1GBhfKxOxJkxmRgMoyvhPL/More-than-732-million-Indians-dont-have-access-to-toilets.html%3ffacet=amp

Diabetes, rather than covid strain, will be a highly significant factor in India's outcome

Nope

India - 30 million diagnosed out of 1.37 billion.
UK - 4.8 million diagnosed out of 67 million.

India's rate is less than 1/3rd of that in the UK - younger population too.

The reason so many are dying is simply that their medical services have been overwhelmed.

Could have happened here in the first wave, but lockdown prevented that. Unlikely now so many are vaccinated no matter what variants emerge.

No, nothing like India here. I agree about living and hygiene issues.

NB - While it seems many scientists expect a third wave in the UK - (I'm a little more optimistic we can avoid it, but it's going to be touch and go), the models give numbers of deaths to covid of between 15k and 50k in the next 12 months.

There's so many unknown variables that modelling is difficult, but the relatively low number (50k) for the worst case scenario modelled should give some comfort when you bear in mind that in the last 12 months it's killed ~130k - or put another way. The worst is behind us.

It won't

The indian strain is covered by the vaccines.

@Workingfromhomeishell

It won't

The indian strain is covered by the vaccines.

Is it? Link to that research?

@Cornettoninja

It's reassuring to believe that "India" or "Brazil" couldn't happen here, but if enough people are ill with covid at the same time we could run out of resources as much as anyone

Absolutely agree and with the rest of your post @PrincessNutNuts. In fact you can replace covid with anything requiring hospital attention and you’ve got a problem.

I’ve seen people criticising the NHS as being unprepared but the fact is no one will pay (through taxation or privately) for hospital resources to be standing idle 99% of the time for the rare occasion it’s needed on such a massive scale. That’s not to take away from the arguments that the NHS is under resources and needs investment but there’s simply no healthcare system set up for this. Some countries appear to have got the balance of organising treatment (I’m thinking Germany) but even that’s got limitations at some point.

It was a bit like this at the beginning too wasn't it?

I remember people scoffing at the idea that the U.K. would let it get out of hand like China or Italy.

Yet here we are.

Our everyday lives absolutely dominated by it for more than a year now. Our economy knackered, and 150,000 of our loved ones dead.

@PrincessNutNuts but it was nothing like India even then. People are dying in the street while lining up to try to access one of many hospitals, these are the people who can manage to get to a hospital, Many people dropped down dead in the last lockdown as they tried to walk hundreds of miles home. There’s no furlough if the poor don’t work they will starve to death. They can’t lockdown again, it’s grim, I don’t know how they will get their numbers down.

[quote Baileysforchristmas]@PrincessNutNuts but it was nothing like India even then. People are dying in the street while lining up to try to access one of many hospitals, these are the people who can manage to get to a hospital, Many people dropped down dead in the last lockdown as they tried to walk hundreds of miles home. There’s no furlough if the poor don’t work they will starve to death. They can’t lockdown again, it’s grim, I don’t know how they will get their numbers down.[/quote]
We had people dying of covid at home for want of a hospital bed.

Doctors made some hard decisions about resources which decided who lived and who died.

Bodies piled up in refrigerated lorries, Our crematoriums ran 24 hours a day.

It was pretty much as bad as you would expect things to get in the 5th richest country in the world.

But yeah. It's going to be a long slog of TTI and vaccines on a local level to get this back under control. And possibly they won't and it will become another endemic disease of some of the poorest countries, like polio. .

Which is why none of us should have let it get out of control in the first place.