Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Is the map broken for everyone else - can’t get down to MSOA level - unless the entire country is now white which is doubtful!

Interesting that Enfield is 4th from bottom of the RP131 chart just above Wirral and Liverpool. There have been asymptomatic walk in LFD testing centres since January in Enfield with follow up PCR if positive.

Er this might explain it....

www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/government-scraps-coronavirus-figures-local-5283130?fbclid=IwAR3fcTPRkfe_zi_b5JTmo4f28IfqcYIkLUKVnt6h5w8-QgllKncwoo2LKsY

Oh dear that is not good but not totally true-
Still showing council areas but not the MSOAs! Disappointing. I can understand a temporary error but why would they shut down the msoa info?

Richard on Twitter has got the msoa info...my map still buggered

I don't think they have stopped, an MSOA near me turned green from white, as well as 2 others moving to white, and the date has updated to 5th April. I would have expected an announcement note for the change, the team have always been good about that so far.

Have seen people (totally unqualified, possibly biased people!) suggesting it’s because the government wants opening up to look like it’s going smoothly.... is that too conspiracist?!

(That’s me analysing the conspiracy theory!)

I wonder whether removing the MSOA data is related to the lateral flow positives that can vanish if overridden via PCRs? Might cause some oddities at small scales.
Data at that level does also become less useful when cases are low though as most areas become white.

Ah is it a (reasonably attentive but not informed enough) journalist getting confused over the updates etc this week? The article was published yesterday.

As you were!

@Firefliess

I wonder whether removing the MSOA data is related to the lateral flow positives that can vanish if overridden via PCRs? Might cause some oddities at small scales. Data at that level does also become less useful when cases are low though as most areas become white.

The msoa data has only ever been over 7 days up to 5 days previously though so time to iron out any (or most) false positives lfts

@JanFebAnyMonth

Ah is it a (reasonably attentive but not informed enough) journalist getting confused over the updates etc this week? The article was published yesterday.

As you were!

I think so!

My map was white for ages at an MSOA level, but then eventually popped up some coloured bits, but with a lot of white still.

Yeah checked map is working again now. Def lots of white but lots of various colours too.

😅

MSOA map looks to work fine at the moment.

With 6791 MSOAs and 7 day cases in England to 5th April at just under 17,000, with the less than three cases suppression we'd expect an awful lot to be white.

At the moment 4,495 are suppressed, with between them just around 4,000 cases over those seven days.

Leaving around 13,000 cases for the other 2296

2 day old article, but don't think it's been posted, from BBC about how link between case numbers and death numbers is becoming less relevant:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56663969

MSOA suppressed / not suppressed mix by region in terms of both MSOA count and percentage

@Bifflepants - I've a problem with that study, and it is 2-fold, firstly it's based on the testing before the false positives LFD's would have been removed, and we know that these are overwhelmingly in the under 65's (since almost all the tests are in this group) so the positive rates in the younger groups are overstated in the study by around 15-20% in early march (only 2-10% in early Feb)

Also the LFD testing also resulted in a different percentage genuine positive cases being picked up between the two time periods - again in the LFD groups as the testing rules for secondary school children and parents of school children was there in the second period and not the first, so more cases that would not have been found, but only in younger groups.

Although of course vaccination is showing similar effects in the US/Israel without the same lockdown changes, so the Pfizer vaccinated at least would expect to see the same thing.

I'm going to ask for opinions on speculation, so totally not data driven (I'm sorry).

As it's now 5 weeks since schools opened are people pleasantly surprised to see there has been no increase in cases or was this expected due to vaccine rollout.
Or maybe it's the warmer (haha not likely) weather because it's a seasonal illness

Thanks @boys3. Looking at the vaccination rates by region, Yorkshire versus South East have similar numbers of vaccination and population, yet a huge difference in the number of "white" MSOA and twice as many cases in Yorkshire.

Any ideas why, particularly from anyone living in Yorkshire? Are we still seeing the long tail of the Kent variant reaching the north of the country later? Or pockets of endemic infection? Or particular outbreaks?

Linking this with the decline in reported case numbers (just England) - so a shorter version of the dashboard heat map but with numbers.

This is the rolling 7 day case rate by week since 1st Feb for each age band.

Impact of full school re-opening evident as cases in the school age group dropping prior to that then picking up (quite markedly) before dipping as the Easter holiday comes into play.

Then the second the week on week change in percentage terms.

Finally the cumulative percentage change.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Ah, so that's unique to Liverpool LFD testing then? Which possibly explains the numbers, outside of Liverpool test-centre and school based ones were not PCR confirmed. So even a higher proportion of the tests there would be confirmed, hence more false positives.

I’ve just looked back at my email from my February lateral flow testing at a London Borough council run centre - it says positive LFTs should be followed up with a PCR test. Not sure how widespread this was, but it wasn’t happening only in Liverpool

@boys3

Linking this with the decline in reported case numbers (just England) - so a shorter version of the dashboard heat map but with numbers.

This is the rolling 7 day case rate by week since 1st Feb for each age band.

Impact of full school re-opening evident as cases in the school age group dropping prior to that then picking up (quite markedly) before dipping as the Easter holiday comes into play.

Then the second the week on week change in percentage terms.

Finally the cumulative percentage change.

Thanks for all the data you out together boys, it is really helpful.

I worry about schools this term, a lot return tomorrow and it is a long stretch now until May half term. Lots of staff and parents still aren't vaccinated. Primary school staff don't have much protection. If numbers continue to rise as indicated by boys charts we could be in for trouble.

I worry about schools this term, a lot return tomorrow and it is a long stretch now until May half term. Lots of staff and parents still aren't vaccinated. Primary school staff don't have much protection. If numbers continue to rise as indicated by boys charts we could be in for trouble.

I, too, have concerns about this, especially as the group 'of school parent age, and unvaccinated' will be mixing MUCH more post April 12th - and even more in the final part of this half term if the May re-opening step goes ahead - than was the case after the initial March school re-opening.

Hopefully, effects of seasonality, weather (more outdoor learning and less of a balance between ventilation and temperature) and ongoing vaccination rollout will mitigate this to some extent.

Round here schools aren't back until 19th.
It'll be into May before we can see whether schools will have a significant impact or a low rumble.