Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

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Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
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⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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I'd hope that by the time of the May opening up most of the parent age groups would be vaccinated.

@Firefliess

I'd hope that by the time of the May opening up most of the parent age groups would be vaccinated.

Parent age group in primary will be c. 25 - 45, IME. With the current focus on 2nd vaccinations, non-AZ for the youngest, and talk of only moving down the age groups at a population level in May, I can't see most in those age groups being done by May 17th?

Not a lot of parents of school aged children aged under 30. Most parents are aged 25-40 when they have their children (women maybe 25-35 or so, but men commonly a little older) so would be 30-45 when they start school and 43-58 by the time they leave secondary. So once they've vaccinated the 40+ age group they'll have done most parents of secondary age children, and about half of those with primary aged kids.

They should have done the over 50s by now, and are doing about 100,000 new doses a day currently. That ought to mean age 45+ done by end of April, and then hopefully increased supply seeing 35-45 age done in May.

Parent age group in primary will be c. 25 - 45

Shit, now you really make me feel old...

I'm 42 and my DCs are at college and University. DH is 41. We're probably outliers these days though.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Parent age group in primary will be c. 25 - 45

Shit, now you really make me feel old...

I am basing my estimate of ages on my everyday experience in a primary - I teach KS2, and the youngest parents are in their late 20s, so will have been 24/25 when their children started Reception.

To get more representative data: Average age of women having their first child in the UK is now around 30. So mothers of primary school children will, on average, be 34 - 41 while their first child passes through primary, and assuming a pretty typical 2 year gap between 2 or 3 children, 36/38 - 45/47 for their last child.

I guess I just look so young and youthful that the ks2 teachers don't realise just how old I am!

@sirfredfredgeorge

I guess I just look so young and youthful that the ks2 teachers don't realise just how old I am!

Possibly!

Yes, of course we have older parents too - but as it is the kind of area where both families & staff tend to be fairly static, we can make a pretty good stab at many ages based on a) older members of staff having taught parents of current pupils and b) younger members of staff having been to school with them!

I was just pointing out that the poster who thought that most of the parent age groups will have been vaccinated by mid-May was being rather optimistic. Here, there is almost no vaccination of the sub-50 group, due to lack of supply while older groups receive their 2nd vaccinations, and there is not anticipated to be much change in that situation during April.

My kids are younger primary and most of the parents I know are late 30s or early 40s.
Once the 40+ are done, plus the many many younger people (I know a lot of vaccinated young hcps) I would hope that would translate to many less cases at school.
Certainly when you get to the 35+.
Either way I would hope we could have “most schoolchildren’s parents” done by late May.

• 3 weeks to build immunity needs to be added to everyone's dates.

In my experience parent age is very area dependent; seaside towns on the coast is not unusual to see many mums who are late teens and early 20s, whereas SW London I have many early 40s friends with our children in nursery and actually the youngest mum I can think of at DS's nursery is 34.

I had my youngest at 40 and attended an outpatient's appt at the Rosie in Cambridge. Most of the other mum's gave their DOB in the 1970's and I admitted to the midwife that my 1960's DOB made me feel old. Trust me, she declared, you're not old for Cambridge

A big cause of disruption to schools is when staff are off sick - lots of staff in primary schools are under 30.

And this will be another factor in deprives areas continuing to fade worse - they will have more young parents (eg the coastal towns).

MRex, just saw an article that may help with your Yorkshire question. Not a lot of data in it.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/11/anxiety-in-barnsley-as-a-virus-hotspot-get-ready-to-open-its-doors

I am pretty sure it isn't delayed B117; I live in Kirklees and had a search through my old emails and back in January Kirklees Council said we were 60% "new variant" so I think we must have gone 95% by now.

Our heat map is interesting though as it looks like we had more cases in November than January but about the same deaths in Jan/Feb.

I never usually post on this thread so I'm taking the chance to say thanks to all the regulars. This is one of the main places I come for analysis. Much appreciated.

Thanks @PreachyGreen - the school opening tests in March look like an additional big outbreak in Barnsley.

below 2000 cases guys, 1730.
Death is 7 but unfortunatley running weekly tally is up slightly for the first time in a very long time. Fairly sure that's just a result of deaths being registered late due to the Easter weekend though.

Yeehaw.
475k second jabs and 111k first jabs also.

indeed it's a great vaccination figure.Lots of second jabs but quite a lot of first jabs still. I'm sorted but a bit anxious about DH (42) hopefully getting his soon.

on the deaths Hugo Gye says it's the lowest daily figure since mid September.

My borough is down to single digit infections and with a following wind could have a zero day yesterday, which we last had on 2nd August. DH and his brothers are all a little impatient for their jabs too, but with bad taste jokes alongside it.

Fairly sure that's just a result of deaths being registered late due to the Easter weekend though

By date of death, and noting that it only says the most recent 5 days are incomplete, there is the steady (if anything accelerating) fall in deaths still. We are roughly at the daily deaths that we had in July last year, which means the fall from the peak appears quicker, so perhaps another thing supporting vaccination working?

Today’s reported cases are slightly misleading - at least in England.

1338 cases added in total.

However

1888 added for spec dates between 8th and 10th April. 550 more than the total added at headline level.

Another 83 for the rest of April.

March - net reduction of 32

February - net reduction of 184

January - net reduction of 224

December - net reduction of 55

November - net reduction of 53

So although the cases numbers are still good, they need to be seen in a slightly wider context.

Is the reduction more LFD false positives, or something else do we know?

@PurpleWh1teGreen I had my youngest aged 37 at the Rosie. I was high risk so had a lot of appointments and pretty much every woman that I saw in the waiting room looked older than me!