Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

So I found a download of the LFD data I did on the 26th, at that point on the 21st of march it was showing

1281 confirmed with PCR LFD cases and
981 unconfirmed LFD cases.

However todays data for the 21st is
1044 confirmed with PCR LFD cases and
955 unconfirmed LFD cases

I do not understand that at all, more of the confirmed cases have disappeared rather the unconfirmed?

So, I've now looked in more details, I think that 21st march might be incomplete and confused in the set I downloaded, so I've gone back a bit further, the adjustments are all over the place with the 5th of march 37% of LFD confirmations were negative compared to 10th of Jan when 2% were negative.

My hypothesis that the number is very different certainly appears true with march (to the 20th) averaging 23%, Feb 17%, Jan 5% - reflecting cases of course but I also think reflects on decisions to retest.

Thank you @Firefliess, I could tell the article was biased but was nonplussed as to how everyone has a different answer. I'm a qualitative social scientist, all these mathematical models make my head spin!

@sirfred I think the data may be messy because what's reported each day is a net figure - new cases identified minus cases they've now realised were double counted/errors/etc.

Precise figures for false positives via LFTs difficult to calculate, and as you say may vary a bit between groups tested (remembering that the in school tests were not sent for PCR checks) But it does look to me that the "They're all false positives, we can't believe anything, nobody should do an LFT!" argument is pretty weak, with the vast majority of those checked in labs looking to be positive.

Interesting about taking off the false positives. I guess this is good but is this not going to cause havoc in the future because, for example, and area might have 20 cases on a specimen day then a couple of days later it would appear that 2 were false so it was actually 18.... will the data all the updated daily and surely that will make it hard to compare week to week as it will be changing all the time?
Or am I missing sthg?

with the vast majority of those checked in labs looking to be positive

Even with the prevalence 4 weeks ago, a quarter were false positive, and every day the prevalence falls further, that percentage goes up.

Also, when they were limited to healthcare etc. the false positive was very low, however when it's now all jumbled up with both including home tests now it's much higher. I don't think the evidence is quite solid to refute people who say the home testing isn't deliverying a lot of false positives, of those 8000, it looks like about half arrived since testing was opened up beyond care/health workers, despite the number of positives in that time being much smaller.

But there's not complete evidence because they're not broken down between each, but it certainly isn't at the highest end of estimates, and it is not "all of them are false +ves" as you say. But I don't think it's necessarily that far off the 50/50 in community that was implied by the original porton down validation. Unless we think the vaccine has been so impressive at stopping transmission in the non-community groups who should now be near fully vaccinated that they are no longer any of the positives.

So the lat couple of days death rates haven’t been dropping. Is this something to worry about?

In terms of the adjustments made for England and broadly when they were originally recorded. This of course is against total cases.

March 3191; 2.3% reduction

February 1571; 0.53% reduction

January 1742; 0.16% reduction

December 824; 0.1% reduction

November 75; 0.01% reduction

There is a file linked with the explanation which shows the total reduction by LA and region, but this does not set out the spec date when they were removed.

No huge regional imbalances relative to population.

London 13.7% cases; 15.9% pop

East 10.4%; 11.1%

East Mids 8.7%; 8.6%

North East 3.9%; 4.7%

North West 16.4%; 13.0%

South East 16.9%; 16.3%

South West 10.7%; 10%

West Mids 11.3%; 10.5%

Yorks Humber 8.0%; 9.8%

Frazzled, yes it will be slightly harder to tell, but not that much, cases are still overall low and a proportion disappearing will not be a big deal, and if/when cases go up again, then the proportion of false positives will fall again and again will not be a problem

I guess because we'll become accustomed to potentially seeing a rise on week to week (because 7 day previous ones would have the false positives removed but the current day not) that we might miss early warning of a rise in cases, but I think that would really show up in PCR alone so need to remember to compare those.

@Frazzled2207

Interesting about taking off the false positives. I guess this is good but is this not going to cause havoc in the future because, for example, and area might have 20 cases on a specimen day then a couple of days later it would appear that 2 were false so it was actually 18.... will the data all the updated daily and surely that will make it hard to compare week to week as it will be changing all the time? Or am I missing sthg?

As a reporting lag is always applied when calculating case rates this should not be too big of an issue. Certainly the five days used by the dashboard should be fine. Not sure if littleowl uses 3 or 4 days at the moment, but even then I cannot see given the percentages involved it being a huge issue.

I enjoy the stats thread thank you! Just to add our household experience of LFTs-my son had a positive one yet negative PCR. The household were all offered PCRs and my husband was positive (asymptomatic pretty much) yet had had a negative LFT. I really think my son had brought Covid back from school (this is just before Xmas,we used the LFTs before potential Xmas mixing thank goodness), he’d had a slight runny nose the previous week so I am sceptical of false positives. As much as I hate isolating (and I say this as a self employed worker, can’t work from home and get no pay if we have to isolate) I do feel it would be beneficial to test whole households for a positive LFT.

Certainly the five days used by the dashboard should be fine. Not sure if littleowl uses 3 or 4 days at the moment, but even then I cannot see given the percentages involved it being a huge issue

On the 26th still to be removed from the 22nd was 5% of cases, still to be removed from the 23rd was 10% of cases. So quite a proportion, the proportion will go up too if R remains below 1.

@hahaboink

So the lat couple of days death rates haven’t been dropping. Is this something to worry about?

I think it's just the lag from bank Holiday weekend

The "false" positive LFTs which are negative via PCR may well include some people who are in the process of getting better so are genuinely positive when they do their LFT but have cleared the infection by the time they take a PCR. Sounds like your son was probably one.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Certainly the five days used by the dashboard should be fine. Not sure if littleowl uses 3 or 4 days at the moment, but even then I cannot see given the percentages involved it being a huge issue

On the 26th still to be removed from the 22nd was 5% of cases, still to be removed from the 23rd was 10% of cases. So quite a proportion, the proportion will go up too if R remains below 1.

sorry @sirfredfredgeorge I've rather lost track on this. Can you elaborate on your 5% and 10%?

Alternatively you might want to advise on final Uni choices for my DS3 as that is certainly hampering my thought processes today.

sorry @sirfredfredgeorge I've rather lost track on this. Can you elaborate on your 5% and 10%?

I downloaded the data published on the 26th, had 224 confirmed PCRs that had not yet been added as confirmed, this makes me think that much of the 345 now false positives also would not have been removed by the same point in time, 345 was 12% of positives on the day, so with only some of them having been annulled at that point it would've been overstating by somewhere between 5 and 11%, So yes my 10% is perhaps high, but certainly at least a similar proportion to the positive confirmations?

www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/people/testing-taskforce-sent-to-corby-covid-hotspot-estate-for-weekend-case-rate-blitz-3194353?fbclid=IwAR29mde3aKzpnSi5vhf6f5zNW_zsEt-aEc9fMbCRlYbP-gyqfpIWL4hUcm8
Northants PH Director trying to tackle stubbornly high rates in Corby with door to door testing.

Table from RP131 showing the impact of the negative adjustments by LA
coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Table_20210409.html

Wirral and Liverpool have the biggest impact, there has been LFD testing there since October for anyone who wanted it, so not surprising

Interesting data driven Twitter thread here (not familiar with the source but I got it from Tim Harford’s feed) indicating that the French vaccination programme is finally getting up to speed. Excellent news from both a humanitarian and selfish POV that our neighbours may be turning the tide.
mobile.twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1380807805960130561

Wirral and Liverpool have the biggest impact, there has been LFD testing there since October for anyone who wanted it, so not surprising

But that was walk in test-centre testing wasn't it? So they shouldn't've been doing PCR's?

That’s not correct, even when you got a positive result from an LFD at the walk in centres you were asked to get a confirmatory PCR. I know several people who have done so and there was a separate PCR booking link set up specifically for this.

liverpool.gov.uk/communities-and-safety/emergency-planning/coronavirus/how-to-get-tested/symptom-free-testing/

What do I do if I test positive?
If you get a positive result to a symptom-free test, you must self-isolate and book a PCR test via liverpoolccg.nhs.uk/confirmatory-pcr-test to confirm you have the virus

Ah, so that's unique to Liverpool LFD testing then? Which possibly explains the numbers, outside of Liverpool test-centre and school based ones were not PCR confirmed. So even a higher proportion of the tests there would be confirmed, hence more false positives.

Just noticed the death rate is "no change" from last week. Is this likely due to an Easter weekend lag?

Just noticed the death rate is "no change" from last week. Is this likely due to an Easter weekend lag?

Probably, we need to see a few more days to come in to be sure, but by date of death it's not unchanged, only by reported, still dropping slowly on date of death - but obviously those aren't complete yet.