Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

We are doing a lot of AZ in the area of London I am. As the preliminary data for AZ against the India variant is good hopefully that may help if other areas of London are similar.

Does anyone know if there is data on Pfizer or Moderna against the India variant yet?

@TruelyWonder
twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1388339291529654278

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@TruelyWonder
twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1388339291529654278[/quote]
I can see he is using charts that have previously been torn apart by experts. Very political bloke too. So not thinking I will find a reliable source of information there. Thank you anyway xxx

I am looking more for preliminary information like this but for Pfizer or Moderna and the Indian variant

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.27.21256187v1

Only Twitter if a reliable source

Anyone?

Yeah, I follow a diverse group of epidemiologists on twitter to get the full spectrum of views but Eric Feigl Ding is one of very few contributors I cannot handle. I follow his parody account though (Eric MD-PhDing) - it can be quite amusing.

Here is an alternative view:

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1388450410713784320

Chise is a Moderna biologist and is part of the vaccine task force. She may be a bit overoptimistic when it comes to vaccines but she probably knows more about them than anyone else on twitter.

@wintertravel1980

Yeah, I follow a diverse group of epidemiologists on twitter to get the full spectrum of views but Eric Feigl Ding is one of very few contributors I cannot handle. I follow his parody account though (Eric MD-PhDing) - it can be quite amusing.

Here is an alternative view:

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1388450410713784320

Chise is a Moderna biologist and is part of the vaccine task force. She may be a bit overoptimistic when it comes to vaccines but she probably knows more about them than anyone else on twitter.

Yes I follow that one too. Had a look and could only see their shout out about AZ for the Indian (and Brazilian) variant. Will have another look see now.

I didn't know there was a Ding parody account. Wonderful will check that out for sure. Thanks❤

Have you possibly seen what I am try to find or is it that no data is out yet? I could be after something that doesn't exist yet of course.

Oh and what is wrong with being over optimistic 😂

Seriously she is very enthusiastic but right about everything so far. I love that 🥰 It pisses so many people off

@TruelyWonder - Pfizer sounded optimistic but no tests yet: www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/covid-vaccine-biontech-ceo-confident-shot-works-against-india-strain.html.

I would expect logically that when a few vaccines work, they all will. Antibodies to spike are antibodies to spike.. Yes, some differences with the mRNA but it's not that far apart.

Thank you MRex.

Yes that is what my favourite over optimistic scientist has suggested before. Fingers crossed that is definitely true.

How about:

twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1388422656907780096

The analysis covers Pfizer and the Indian variant and the results seem to indicate Pfizer will remain effective. I would expect Moderna to follow.

If the vaccines we're currently using do work against the Indian variant, is there another plausible explanation for why that variant is currently growing a lot faster than the other strains? (Far more contagious?) Quite concerning that it's as much as 11% in London, and rising fast. Vaccines and past infection not offering much protection do seem likely explanations to me.

If the vaccines we're currently using do work against the Indian variant, is there another plausible explanation for why that variant is currently growing a lot faster than the other strains?

There is a hypothesis that the Indian variant is more transmissible than B117 (I have seen a 15% number).

Absolute numbers of cases are still very low and there are large pockets of unvaccinated population (especially in London) so it is not unexpected to see community spread until we vaccinate the younger population (people in the 20-40 age group).

11% in London isn't that many cases yet though. The infection rates in London are very low at the moment.

Also from what I have read we are looking at some of the communities with low vaccine take up. Plus people that came back from India just before having to quarantine.

Sure some else here will have there own thoughts that are more scientific than me

Oh they already answered 👍😂

Thanks both. There's around 300 cases a day in London, so 11% of that is 33, or 230 odd a week. That's not a huge number, but it's more than one or two individual outbreaks. Fair point that there are fewer vaccinated people in London.

Data from India does seem to suggest that the AZ vaccine is working there. So maybe it's just more contagious? That's not great either, but I guess means we can add least protect ourselves with vaccines

Updated from Christina pagel. There was a bug in the data from The Sanger.

Looks pretty bad for East Midlands now.
Is this down to schools?

I live in Leicester where we have v high proportion of population from south East Asian backgrounds. Going to check with friends how many schools currently have bubbles burst (anecdotal of course).

Remember everyone who is quarantining and testing is included in the figures as a found case, there would have been British Citizens returning home from India and quarantining, given the situation in India it is not at all surprising that many of them had Covid, and not surprising that they found them.

East Midlands and London are the most likely home addresses I imagine in the geography of my head, so it's that seems sensible for the locations.

I'd say this is another time when dashboards are unhelpful, the context of those cases is essential to understanding, picking such small changes of numbers don't give a true picture.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Remember everyone who is quarantining and testing is included in the figures as a found case, there would have been British Citizens returning home from India and quarantining, given the situation in India it is not at all surprising that many of them had Covid, and not surprising that they found them.

East Midlands and London are the most likely home addresses I imagine in the geography of my head, so it's that seems sensible for the locations.

I'd say this is another time when dashboards are unhelpful, the context of those cases is essential to understanding, picking such small changes of numbers don't give a true picture.

The diagram posted says it excludes travellers and surge testing from the figures.

@Firefliess

If the vaccines we're currently using do work against the Indian variant, is there another plausible explanation for why that variant is currently growing a lot faster than the other strains? (Far more contagious?) Quite concerning that it's as much as 11% in London, and rising fast. Vaccines and past infection not offering much protection do seem likely explanations to me.

It would be interesting to know the age groups of those affected. If mostly under 40 then that would surely point to a trend of among the unvaccinated. But of course that doesn’t explain why it’s growing faster than other strains other than increased transmitability

The only other explanation I can think of for the faster growth of the Indian variant would be contacts of people who've traveled from India who've not been identified via contact tracing as such. Whether that could explain a noticeable increase depends on how many cases at present are imported from India (or other countries where the Indian strain is common). Non essential travel is currently banned, though this is clearly not enforced as the BBC managed to find plenty of people prepared to give interviews about being stranded there when the recent ban/quarantine requirements came in who had traveled to attend weddings or visit family. There was also a big rush of people traveling from India in advance of the quarantine requirements coming into effect, which could be coming through in the figures via contacts.

Are there any journalists out there who can tell me why you mix percentages, fractions, ratios etc so that comparison needs me to convert in my head.
Unfortunately there are probably a lot of people out there who cannot relate to those figures and the picture is lost. Do the journalists think it just sounds more interesting. It is simply confusing.

Hasn’t the BBC also reported that there’s lots of cases of forged test results? From all departure points I guess, not particular to India or anything.

I don't understand "excludes travellers" to means it excludes all cases found in quarantine, just those who choose to do it via a private party, otherwise the tests are still pillar 2 and aren't separated, but I cannot see the evidence for that. Do you have more than a graph from twitter to assert otherwise?

"private party" - private tests, 'cos the private tests aren't sequenced.

I'm not sure there is evidence of a big rush from india btw, people in quarantine (home) didn't get a big rise unless it was literally on the 22nd, as people entering quarantine was down on the rest of that week, we'll find in the next release I guess.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-15-april-to-21-april-2021

(20,000 quarantining at home that week, previous week 29,000, before that higher)

There we a piece on the news that there were only 2 flights from India due that week and the airlines decided not to put on more flights despite demand. There may have been more people transferring through other countries, but there's a limit to how much of a "rush" that can be. The surge testing was in the SA areas (Lambeth, Wandsworth, Southwark) not more typically Indian areas such as Hounslow and Brent, East Midlands etc. It isn't clear if traveller households were included or excluded to get an accurate idea of community spread.