Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@lazymum99

Are there any journalists out there who can tell me why you mix percentages, fractions, ratios etc so that comparison needs me to convert in my head. Unfortunately there are probably a lot of people out there who cannot relate to those figures and the picture is lost. Do the journalists think it just sounds more interesting. It is simply confusing.

I expect they do it either because they think it makes the piece more “interesting” (it’s interesting that you mention this, as many people seem to leave school with the idea that a piece of text should be “interesting” rather than factually true, accurate or easy to understand), or because the numbers are from different sources and they’re not capable of converting them, or because they don’t understand why it matters, or a combination of all these. Retired from secondary, I teach functional maths to adults and know very well how confusing many people find this. Lots of people have difficulty interpreting graphs and charts as well, and consider them designed to confuse rather than to illustrate and clarify. I have ideas as to why that is but no intention of going on boringly about them here.

covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about
This gives the methodology for the Sanger institute surge testing figures. Says it excludes travellers, whom I assume they identify because they ask people this when they do a PCR test. But does seem to include contacts of travellers, including household contacts. It would also include anyone who didn't admit to having traveled abroad (eg because it was for a non essential reason, they'd traveled via another country to avoid hotel quarantine, they were admitting to having contacts which meant they'd broken their home isolation, or simply that they didn't read/understand/complete the questions correctly). 20,000 isolating at home does sound like quite a large number - that's from all countries obviously, though India is one where many UK have family links. Wouldn't take that many infected travellers (and passing them on on the long plane ride) to cause a fair number of the cases.

So the ONS school data.

Herd immunity or seasonality. Discuss.

Lockdown.

reading the R4 study and few questions that pop into my mind whilst doing so.

1. R1 (nov) compared to R4... in Nov we had daily case numbers in the 20k region, and now around 5k. Is this really comparable?

1. "Test results are only available for those who had enrolled in the survey and present in the school building on the day of testing; under current guidance you would expect these participants to have no reported COVID-19 symptoms and not be under current self-isolation guidance."

So, in essence the figures they are reporting (0.3) are basically missed cases. It would be interesting to see if they added the already known cases in the schools - to get the whole picture.

and another thought: how is this supposed to represent anything apart from how effective lockdown is? If you look at school opening around the world and case numbers* there is a lag of 3-6 weeks to drive numbers up.
In the UK schools went back and then broke up for easter. Some schools only went back last week. I think it would be more meaningful to have this survey before may half term maybe? Don't know if they plan to do one then.

*if we take it as a fact that school children are carriers and spreaders, just like adults.

Cases are lower after lockdown, shock! Eh, just wait for #5, this one was not useful.

I still think it’s massively encouraging. Everyone was saying schools would drive infection rates, yet this clearly isn’t the case. It’s just representative of the wider community. I’m not convinced lockdown is the main driver of reduction of cases, but I can see your points about lower cases generally now than Nov.

@Doomsdayiscoming

I still think it’s massively encouraging. Everyone was saying schools would drive infection rates, yet this clearly isn’t the case. It’s just representative of the wider community. I’m not convinced lockdown is the main driver of reduction of cases, but I can see your points about lower cases generally now than Nov.

I agree with you that schools weren't a primary driver initially, but certainly with the Kent variant in November/ December there appeared some additional spread from secondary schools. With this report timing though, we can't see much of anything because there are lower community cases overall and it's too soon for any spread within schools.

No hospital data. It’s been sooo long.

Hospital stats on the NHS page now - England down to 1,093 on 4 May

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/05/COVID-19-daily-admissions-and-beds-20210504.xlsx

@Doomsdayiscoming

So the ONS school data.

Herd immunity or seasonality. Discuss.

Lockdown and Easter.

Also testing (even though LFTs aren't ideal) and masks,

[quote ceeveebee]Hospital stats on the NHS page now - England down to 1,093 on 4 May

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/05/COVID-19-daily-admissions-and-beds-20210504.xlsx[/quote]
Ah thanks!

1080 on Saturday followed by 3 (instead of the normal 2) minor ups and downs. Should have 4 days of big falls.

-23% for the week. Delightful.

Gosh, 52 patients admitted in England on 1st May.

There have only been 11 days ever with a lower number. The record being 25 on 22nd August last year.

Okay I’m pumped.

New prediction: many days of 0 covid admissions into hospitals by August.

@Doomsdayiscoming

Gosh, 52 patients admitted in England on 1st May.

There have only been 11 days ever with a lower number. The record being 25 on 22nd August last year.

Oh sorry. My tired brain was looking at the wrong row. It was 68*.

Still amazing

On schools if others are anything like our school then case numbers may be way lower.

We have had 5 cases. However two cases were kids, individual incidents. Tested on days that meant no contacts in school. The other 3 cases were teachers that are related to each other. They tested themselves at home day before returning from Easter.

All cases have to be reported to the school. Then our head has to report them to PHE. Not one of them were caught in school or have infected anyone else at school. If other schools have been ask to report in the same way. Which I believe must be guidance if our head is doing it. School cases may be even lower.

One of the things that (almost) excites me just now is that people are complaining about getting sore throats and colds again. Mostly with a link to schools.

So droplet infections are spreading as restrictions are eased (and ignored) but Covid isn’t. Which is really, really good news.

Right what I actually came on to ask is if you lot are aware of this.

There HAS not been one case thus far of a FULLY (2-weeks post second dose by definition) vaccinated individual transmitting the virus (in the case of a rare breakthrough infection).

Not sure if this is just in America or everywhere but if like this in America we should be the same surely.

Totally amazing and wonderful I think. Meaning if a person gets infected once vaccinated they are of no danger to anyone else. Marvellous for the general population,herd immunity and definitely for NHS staff that could need to care for them.

Do you have a source for that Truely?

Meanwhile:
english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus/2021/05/04/Coronavirus-It-s-not-just-India-new-COVID-19-waves-hit-developing-nations-worldwide?fbclid=IwAR1-3qTvJtNGA1kw0pri2N8MkTSv08F7IBQdaOOZNupP7M0iNX23jFju8P8

Sorry I should have added the source and typical can't find the right tweet and links now. Have found this one that is similar though. Also happens to be UK with Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Which is perplexing me slightly. Why wouldn't they have said this. Though we do tend to air on the side of caution with our data (Whitty). Maybe they ate still waiting to see if correct.

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1385564835363139585?s=20

Mac n’ Chise
@sailorrooscout
·
23 Apr
To clarify, this data is after a single dose of AstraZeneca and/or two doses of Pfizer. Data for two doses of AstraZeneca is not available just yet since it’s rollout began later than Pfizer.

ALSO those that got infected did NOT transmit the virus! That’s HUGE.

Thanks for the twitter link, that does indeed sound fantastic!

And have just read about Neil Ferguson saying he thinks another lockdown is unlikely.

The link to the study referred to in the Twitter thread is here. twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1385513092533178369?s=19
It's from the Coronavirus infection survey and shows that both vaccines used in the UK are working well with a reduction in symptomatic infection of around 70%. The bit about preventing transmission is not as solid as the tweet by Mac n Chise implies as all the article says is that those who caught it anyway post vaccination has lower viral loads that unvaccinated people. This gives potential for them to be less infectious, but doesn't prove it completely. I think she's overstating to say "those who got infected did not transmit the virus" We never really know who's transmitted to whom for certain.

The study we were discussing earlier on this thread supplied some evidence on this and shows that people living with vaccinated people who caught Covid were about 40-50% less likely to catch it than those living with unvaccinated people with Covid. Seems to me that might be an underestimate, because household members might also have caught it from a third party (eg another unvaccinated household member, or the same person as vaccinated person caught it from, just taking a bit longer to incubate) But unlikely that it's actually zero. May be less likely (which is great news!) but still possible.

Sirfredfredgeorge
I’d have to dig into the Sanger methodology more and not sure I’ll have time today (although I think firefliess posted a link). Christina Pagel summarised more granular data to regional data in that graph.

Just seen this
amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/04/no-surge-testing-for-india-variants-despite-hancock-pledge?__twitter_impression=true

Not data but related to the 1.617 and friends...

Great news in my opinion from Gupta’s lab because I doubt 4-6 fold lower neutralisation has any real impact on immunity in real life.