Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I don't get the debate around mandatory testing for those who went clubbing.

1. the study should be designed and funded to incorporate quarantine requirements if needed (that's only fair)
2. it should be mandatory to test afterwards, otherwise what's the point?

I really struggle to understand why it is so evil to make some things mandatory. It is mandatory to wear clothes when not at home, or to pay for things before leaving a shop or entering a venue. How is this different? They want to go clubbing then they have to test on day x and y. Don't want to test, don't go clubbing.
nobody is going on protests against shoe wearing....

@TheSunIsStillShining it is not ethically possible to do a test where you cannot withdraw from the test at any time, it's very well established ethics

"Informed consent should be understood as a process, and participants have a right to withdraw at any point in the study without retribution."
cioms.ch/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/WEB-CIOMS-EthicalGuidelines.pdf

Requiring a test afterwards means that you cannot withdraw, which means it is not ethical under the current norms (and indeed the norms for at least 70 years.)

If you want to make a LAW requiring testing after such an event, you could make a law, like laws against wearing clothes or leaving a shop or entering a venue (although in actual fact none of those things actually have a law against them, there are various civil offences, and offences related to them but none are specifically illegal, but laws could be made.)

However there is no need to make such a law, the only grounds such gross invasion of forced medical procedures is wider public health, and we have the public health law to protect people here - track and trace if any cases are found everyone at the venue can be forced to isolate under the existing law. No new powers are needed and very much not forced medical procedures.

And again, the people promoting unethical shit purely because it is in their own interest increases the opposition, compulsion is not a valid strategy to compliance in any situation really.

So basically you could only sign people up for the study who agree from the outset to do the test afterwards. But if they then change their mind you can't do anything. I'm hoping people signing up to the study did initially agree to the test afterwards in the first place!

I think it's very unlikely that many people would sign up for the clubbing experiment, do their first test as required, go clubbing, and then refuse to do the second one. But if a few do drop out, that doesn't really matter. They'll still be plenty people left in the study to see whether there was a Covid outbreak related to the clubbing.

Unless the people who develop covid symptoms decide not to test as it is in their best interests to prove covid doesn't spread at these types of events.

I was thinking they could have used at least one as a human trial event. Everyone one jab and blood test, go clubbing with covid in the airflow 22 days later, next blood test and covid test a few days later. Then we'd know how many antibodies give protection. Bit more interesting than having people sit around in a lab.

You would hope they could have at least collected data on whether the clubbers have had a vaccine or not

And so they couldn’t have made it a commercial thing, ie if you want this product (first night clubbing for over a year) you give us your CC details and if you don’t fulfill yr side of the contract we charge you £X000?

OK so I guess I know the answer to that already....

Obviously in ‘normal’ medical challenge-type trials people must be pretty invested in the medicine anyway (either it’s all about eg catching the common cold, or they’re prepared to help trial a cure for their stage 4 cancer. The difference here is it that it’s a ‘material’ benefit which will have attracted folk who normally wouldn’t ever consider being part of a medical trial.

Sorry I obviously am no expert on this and am conflating bits of hazy knowledge, but it is an interesting issue.....

I wonder how many will do the second test. Given that these are young people, some of whom will be more likely to not follow guidance generally anyway. And not always good at remembering appointments etc. Maybe I’m stereotyping too much though!

@sirfredfredgeorge
I get your point in general. And we do see that in medical studies the drop off rate is not high.
But in this case there is no incentive to actually "stick around" and follow up. Meaning that whatever the results might be it will potentially be totally invalidated because of poor "study/experiment" design.
Maybe this should have never been called a study in the first place?
I'm thinking that they are trying to wrap a cloak of scientific-ness around it so make it more convincing when they use it as an argument for opening everything up wildly.

There's no incentive to stick around in almost any trial, people do because they're nice and helpful and want to help other people out. The idea that these "young people" won't help out is just completely against the history of the last year and beyond, they've consistently harmed themselves to help others, doing a test is not going to be a big additional chore.

And it's as much in their interest for the study to be conclusive as to not show lack of transmission (and there won't be much transmission anyway 'cos of how little covid there is around.)

@JanFebAnyMonth I've done lots of medical studies, none of them have I had any interest in the thing that was being studied, I did it because I was asked, or because I knew individuals soliciting for volunteers. People volunteer for all sorts of reasons, there are millions of people who do things without demanding something in return.

I do not believe the commercial thing would not have been possible because the contract cannot force medical procedures, but you might have been able to do something, certainly if the test was less invasive it might've worked - perhaps stool samples could've been managed. However I'm pretty sure it won't remotely be necessary, people will not be dropping out in any relevant numbers.

I work with young people and the majority are delightful and would absolutely do what they'd committed to help others. I am in awe of how conscientious they have been about the restrictions given just how much they are giving up. The stereotype is unfair and does not marry with my experience.

Of course not all young people will be like that, nor all people of any age. But certainly plenty enough to make a study work - there will be a drop out rate accounted for in the planning. I'm so pleased that nightclubs are being included in this and it's not all just about theatres and concert halls.

Anyone know of a reason cases are rising in Moreton, Herefordshire?

@lonelyplanet

Anyone know of a reason cases are rising in Moreton, Herefordshire?

I can't even definitively find it on a map! Where is this place? Is it an area of Harpenden?

Ah sorry Hereford not Hertford!
Lugwardine, Withington & Moreton on Lugg - 16 cases is quite an increase.

Herefordshire not Hertfordshire

I may be misremembering but wasn't there a school research (Bristol?) about if/how covid spread in schools that was meant to come out in March?
I think it was talked about last September. Anyone seen hide or hair of that? Or am I misremembering?

Prison?? Or thinking back to last summer(ish) fruit farm outbreak?

Hyndburn a bigger concern than anything in Herefordshire, 109 cases in the last seven days.

Hyndburn I see with a large school outbreak, assuming Accrington is indeed within the Hyndburn council area. Mobile testing units deployed.

@boys3

Hyndburn I see with a large school outbreak, assuming Accrington is indeed within the Hyndburn council area. Mobile testing units deployed.

Ouch! That is a big school outbreak. I'd guess with parents typically in 45-49 age category and teachers in the 30-34.

I'm not sure you know Accrington! - secondary school parents more likely 30-35

Latest rates for each Council area showing the last five seven day periods, so the most recent up to 28th April. Sorted by rate per 100,000 rank high to low. Kent DPH in one of the links in the last few days suggested comfortable with rates up to 25 per 100,000 so any over 25 highlighted. Final column is the absolute case rate movement, not percentage movement, for the last 7 day period, as rates get much lower percentages are both increasingly meaningless and misleading.

Starting with the obviously most important - London

North West

North East