Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

However d parents who had az got second Jab 9 weeks after first.

ONS Covid infection survey looks positive, 1 in 1010: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30april2021.

54,200 is the estimated total number of infections in the country. (Realistically detection is possble up to a month; so it's a sizeable proportion of cases still being identified.)

11.8% less in hospital in England for the week, two days to go. To hit -20% would need -57 both days. Feels unlikely. Probably more likely to hit 17-18%.

Think things will pick up with the warmer weather from 9th. April weather could have been warmer, which would have pushed things along much better really.

Has anyone got any thoughts on the Salford figures? Our local CCG is tweeting about how numbers are rising and re-emphasising not meeting indoors etc.

www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-one-dose-of-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-still-leaves-patients-vulnerable/?fbclid=IwAR2dd_uppp00xc-FPKD3OG-wyq4sFVl7JKD8IUPwaZSkTP4dPw0Y5bfXAt8

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Salford

I would say they are not bad enough to alarm people in that way, it's counter-productive as if it actually changed then the crying wolf over such small variations will lessen the impact later.

Small study - 731 HCPs - showed huge difference in immunity between those who’d had COVID and then their first dose, and those who’d only had the first vaccination.

Too small a sample to matter?

Given they were only looking at a proxy for protection - the antibody level (when we don't actually know the level of antibody response required you just need enough), then I don't think it's particularly interesting given the other studies which have shown Pfizer be effective against all the variants in question.

Better report in the Canadian webpage than we typically get in the UK ones though.

Also remember that it's well known that covid+dose is more effective than a single dose, indeed Israel have gone with single dose if there was a recent case of covid confirmed rather than two dose.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Also remember that it's well known that covid+dose is more effective than a single dose, indeed Israel have gone with single dose if there was a recent case of covid confirmed rather than two dose.

Yup, this was the smart move.

Wish the U.K. had adopted that.

that was a slightly worrying article though, describing protection from one Pfizer dose as 'very, very weak'. I thought there was other data that showed it was really fairly protective even after one dose, though obviously two is better - or indeed, Covid plus one dose.
They mentioned the south africa variant briefly, but then went into more detail only about the others, rather than that one (which is B 351 or something I think?). Not sure Pfizer or AZ is that good against that one.

@Doomsdayiscoming but everyone in the UK is getting two doses. Is the second dose useless if you've had covid and therefore wasted or does it boost further still.

I think I'd still rather have both doses even if I'd had covid recently

Re the experimental rave yesterday in a warehouse in Liverpool: they’re monitoring CO2 levels,, studying airflow, testing to enter, testing 5 days later. Fine

BUT the testing 5 days later is not mandatory. So how is the data from this going to help?!

I don't think you CAN make a medical procedure mandatory in English law. We don't make other procedures mandatory like vaccination that would have far greater benefits (appreciate the risk is different, I can't think of other examples because it's early). I wouldn't expect more than one or two to refuse to comply.

How does mandating a test after going to a club differ from mandating tests for people who have recently come into the country and are in home isolation or hotel quarantine?

Yes I did wonder about that. Although we’ve made it mandatory for some international travellers currently, haven’t we?

@NuttyinNotts

How does mandating a test after going to a club differ from mandating tests for people who have recently come into the country and are in home isolation or hotel quarantine?

Home isolation tests aren't mandatory. International travellers go to hotels and are subject to a range of extra restrictions that don't apply to citizens. You're right with the new red list requirements, I don't actually know how it's legal to get them to test if they're British citizens or work visa holders; it might turn out to be more optional than it looks or could be a special extra bit of legislation.

I thought there was other data that showed it was really fairly protective even after one dose

There is, real world data of infected communities with the variants spreading. The study as described in the globe and mail was looking at a proxy for protection "antibody level", we don't know what level of antibodies is required to protect someone, we know there are other mechanisms protecting people than antibody levels etc.

I've not seen the original piece, but the actual data of if vaccinated people are infected with it is to me more persuasive.

[quote JamesAnderson]@Doomsdayiscoming but everyone in the UK is getting two doses. Is the second dose useless if you've had covid and therefore wasted or does it boost further still.

I think I'd still rather have both doses even if I'd had covid recently[/quote]
If you had recently had covid, then then have your first dose and then a second one once everyone had a their first. I’d probably still give two doses to the over 50s though.

It was the quickest, yet more complicated route to herd immunity.

@NuttyInNotts mandating tests by law is fine. mandating tests as part of a medical study will not get ethical approval, either you need the law written to enable it - and personally I see no grounds for a law mandating testing in the situation (the public health measure of enforced isolation of everyone via track & trace on the venue is sufficient to limit any breakout) - or you need to get ethical approval for the study.

Ethical approval for studies have to have the option to stop agreeing surely?

@JamesAnderson

Didn’t answer your first part. I cannot say if it is useless, but probably much better to give someone with no protection their 1st dose than give someone essentially their 3rd.

You could even argue at this point that the best use of vaccines in this country is actually to donate them to countries in the most dire situation. We have reached the summer with low residual cases, the R is not equal through the year as clearly demonstrated by last Summer. The best thing right now is ensure enough first doses for the 18-40, and start vaccinating other countries.

Actually in the very short term, the best use of our vaccine supply is to directly target the places in country with the current highest level of covid, either in the population or with the most strained hospitals (probably a direct overlap).

You vaccinate everyone in those areas over 18. You could also vaccinate everyone going into those areas in the next month (Students, people moving for jobs etc).

I was never sure why our vaccine rollout ignored the fact that covid was never spread equally across the U.K. Sure, vaccinate the over 50s, but after that it’s about reducing transmission, so you should target the places with the highest rates historically.

@Doomsdayiscoming

Ah, I see, so use the second dose more productively and boost in the autumn when the more at risk groups are given their third.
In theory there'll be more variety of vaccine available then too.

That makes sense. I was assuming just one dose and done.

to directly target the places in country with the current highest level of covid
There is a risk of that being perceived as a reward for non-compliance. As much as risks of work exposure are discussed, that's how it will be seen. We also then allowed travel, opening risk for everyone along with accusations of postcode lottery and unfairness: "my dad's now died because government sent all the doses to Luton and Manchester". Perception of fairness matters too.

That said, there could now on the lower age groups be an argument for stronger vaccination drives and higher quantities in areas of lower overall percentage take-up OR higher community infection rates. I like Brent's vaccine bus!

There would be an argument for trying to give students both jabs before they go back in September after last year.

However I see problems with that. First one being I don't think that could be justified when they didn't do teachers.
Also it would be very difficult to sort. You don't have "student" on your medical records, so doctors wouldn't be able just to figure out who they are. Some will be called in their home residence, some in their student town depending on where their GP is.
An alternative would be universities giving it on arrival (maybe the J&J as that's only one). But if immunity takes 3 weeks to get in, fresher's flue normally arrives about 2-3 weeks in, so really that would be too late.

to directly target the places in country with the current highest level of covid
There is a risk of that being perceived as a reward for non-compliance.
Another way to look at it would be to target the areas with the lowest overall cases of covid as they will have less natural immunity. Don't think that's a good idea either!
Problem if you go for different amounts for different areas is that people don't fit naturally into one section. If I'd booked my jab through the NHS rather than the GP I'd have had mine in a different county-I'm close to 3 borders here. I shop in a different county again (nearest supermarket), and dh works in a different county, and when dd1 was at school she was in a different county...

Or do you go down to LA level? I can just hear my family who live in an area of the country whose LA was low pretty much throughout, however because they were in a high county, were hit by the October lockdowns. They'd be pretty hacked off if they were denied the vaccines due to being too low, whereas they were shoved in with the rest of the county for lockdowns, then being given fewer vaccines.

I do think we might be at a point where targeted vaccines might work in some circumstances though.
Selby, for example. It looks like a workplace outbreak. What if they'd done the workplace-and the people they live with as soon as it looked like it was spreading there.
A school? Do the teachers that haven't been done already etc, maybe offer it to parents and adults who live with any of the pupils.
Isn't that what they did with Small Pox?

But the other thing is other countries. I think the UK has done well on vaccines, and it was a time to perhaps be inward looking and a bit selfish. But now we need to look outwards, and look to other countries. Now's the time to look to help others.
If we don't do this then we are at risk of more variants forming and they will get in. It would only take one person, as we've seen before, with a more infectious variant that evades the vaccine, to send numbers rushing up again.