Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

The PCR cases have never shown a true picture when you compare them to actual estimated prevalence on ONS surveys

The key figures now to focus on are surely vaccinations, hospitalisations and deaths?

If cases increase but hospitalisations and deaths don’t, does it matter? (other than the impact of having to self isolate, which is addressable by individuals actually doing as they are asked to and having a PCR)

Interesting citizen data collection from Canada (is that actually the correct term when it’s basically one citizen doing the collecting, not sure?!)

montreal.ctvnews.ca/mobile/quebec-schools-without-air-purifiers-have-3-to-4-times-more-covid-19-cases-says-dad-running-citizen-count-1.5400739?fbclid=IwAR1Y5caJ6bn-0IUOvVBcRORu0SiIAqLyD4CqKYlPpBkourH8pLoxlDt5-jQ

If cases increase but hospitalisations and deaths don’t, does it matter?

I don't think it does no, although because the measures haven't really changed yet in the high risk ways, an increase could indicate more virulent strain, vaccine breakthrough etc. that could be a serious problem, cases not increasing as much as restrictions easing led to previously would be more reassuring.

The numbers being very good despite what is almost certainly just missing false positives removed is there - as people say we can probably rely on the other numbers and probably make a reasonable guess of the number of false positives.

@JanFebAnyMonth - that's ripe for the causation being something different - such as richer areas have more money to spend on air-purifiers, or kids who attend French vs English schools having different risk profiles etc. Or schools where air quality is noticed simply opening more doors and windows.

Yes sirfred, obviously lots of variables. It would be interesting to have a Canadian scientist commenting.

Rates rising in some Kent areas, although they are still quite low:
www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/latest-kent-covid-infection-rates-5345309?fbclid=IwAR1hYpXOqDgYEy0FybkVsE_c0aUU77orvfqAlQpplmT2UtMV-g0OaIaqWXE

Apparently some London boroughs too.

But is this just inevitable effects of start of term plus step 2?

I'm not sure the "increases in rates" is actually true though, since this is the first 7 day period where the whole of the period is in the time where the LFD false negatives aren't being removed.

Even 10% LFD's being false positive changes the picture utterly, and given the March prevalence was more like 25%, and ONS viewed prevalence is lower still, I'd say things are still falling across the country on the evidence in the dashboard.

Transmission reduction study, reduction in household transmission by 38-49%: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993.

This seems clumsily written to me. If it's on top of the 60-65% reduction in catching covid then that means transmission is worst case 62% of the remaining 40% so 24.8%, so 75.2% don't transmit. Best case it's 51% of 35% so 17.85%, so 82.15% don't transmit.

@MRex

Transmission reduction study, reduction in household transmission by 38-49%: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993.

This seems clumsily written to me. If it's on top of the 60-65% reduction in catching covid then that means transmission is worst case 62% of the remaining 40% so 24.8%, so 75.2% don't transmit. Best case it's 51% of 35% so 17.85%, so 82.15% don't transmit.

Yes just saw that same article. I think that is what it's saying and i like your maths. Presumably after two doses we'd be up to all least 90% total reduction in transmission for AZ (80% no symptoms and a further 10%+ not transmitting) and around 97% for Pfizer?

I'm guessing the physiology behind this is that the people who catch Covid after vaccination have a lower viral load (which is why they're less likely to end up in hospital) and that this is what also makes them less infectious to those around them.

Yes, I was thinking the same. It means care homes and hospitawill will likely carry the majority of that risk too, though I'm presuming the study was on a full population basis and just realised I have no idea on the group used.

This article has a bit more detail.www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/28/single-dose-of-covid-vaccine-can-nearly-halve-transmission-of-virus-study-finds
Appears to be a PHE study but I can't find the original. Possibly due to be up on line later today?

It's such a shame though that now I envisage hundreds of posts to explain the maths to people who say there's no point being vaccinated because it only halves transmission. If only I could set up canned answers on my phone for these topics...

Does anyone know why LittleOwls Covid Messenger emails are stopping please? On the one today it said the service will cease and to cancel any direct debits. It’s been such a helpful service so I’m really sad.

Thank you littleowl xx hope you and yours are all well xx

Transmission reduction study

It's a shame they couldn't test the super-spreader situation, as that's possibly the most interesting, as super spreader events are going to be the hardest to track and trace, I imagine the likelihood is that super-spreading is even more reduced if it's viral load related, but would be great to confirm.

Good news though.

@SunshiningBetty

Does anyone know why LittleOwls Covid Messenger emails are stopping please? On the one today it said the service will cease and to cancel any direct debits. It’s been such a helpful service so I’m really sad.

Maybe she's anticipating that as the end of the pandemic! That would be nice.

@LittleOwl1
Thank you so much for the service you have provided. I'll miss it, and it's been really helpful in checking for my parents as well as our area.
Hope you're okay.

83 less in hospital in England. Making it 91 for the week with 4 days to go. So 6.5% so far.

Fingers crossed for another 20% week. Would need 47 per day for the next four days.

[quote MargaretThursday]@LittleOwl1
Thank you so much for the service you have provided. I'll miss it, and it's been really helpful in checking for my parents as well as our area.
Hope you're okay.[/quote]
I will miss it too. Thank you for the all work you have done LittleOwl.

Agreeing with other posters I have found @littleowl1 emails re numbers, in several areas important to me, very helpful. Thank you.

mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1387040833833107458?s=20&fbclid=IwAR1hg2wrdFMj4iEszTWyi9L3JmUgLlCwoftb9SH5PD8aaaCrKjpHP4c3ZuQ
MRHA has expressed some concerns over govt trials for LFT serial testing as a replacement for isolation.

twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1387755005571174401/photo/1

It looks as though the 10-19 group cases are rising. Those who follow data more closely - Is this a trend or a blip?
From a far away (not been looking at trends lately) it looks as we are starting to see the effects of schools back again.

I would say its highly likely 10-19s are testing more for school, etc. and so would statistically show as having higher cases.

is AZ doing ph3 clinical trials with u18s? I think they just did it with 18+, right?

A slight uptick on cases should be expected from all the testing and mingling, the virus hasn't gone away. The only area that looks particularly concerning to me is Yorkshire and Humber. They are higher for some older age groups too in fairness, but higher levels for that age group than feel safe.

@Doomsdayiscoming

83 less in hospital in England. Making it 91 for the week with 4 days to go. So 6.5% so far.

Fingers crossed for another 20% week. Would need 47 per day for the next four days.

Only -32 today for England.

8.8% for the week.

53 each day for 3 days to hit -20%.