Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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OK thanks for that Cam link MRex, great data (as I’d expect from them).

@JanFebAnyMonth

Or outbreaks at a couple of schools. Difficult to know though as of course Freshers are 18-19 too. When did (in person) Term start?

At this point in the year, around 3/4 of the 18yos should be still at school. So of 15-19yos, we can estimate 75% would be at school. (3.75/5) Of those 18/19yo that are university age, about half go to university, plus you also have to put in that first years are most likely to be in halls, so easier to control whether they are back, and some universities have said they don't have to pay hall fees if they're not in residence, which will discourage them from going back too.

So I think the chance of the 15-19yo age category being effected greatly by university students is fairly low-especially in areas where you can also see the 10-14yo age category going up. It might cause a rise in one or two areas, but they certainly shouldn't be being blamed for rises in that age category generally.

For my dd (who hasn't gone back, and is working online) term started this week.

My 19 year old fresher is "back" this week online, with online exams and the year ends on 14th May (helpfully just before students are officially allowed back on campus)
A lot of students are still at home from Christmas break, when they went home and got Locked Down away from campus.

A quick Google says Cambridge students start Easter Term today:

https://www.cam.ac.uk/about-the-university/term-dates-and-calendars

It was just that @FlattestWhite mentioned that students had returned, and they must make up a larger proportion of Cambridge’s 10-19 population than in many other areas.

Of course there is also Anglia Ruskin Uni in the city - although that will have a larger proportion of mature students than University of Cambridge.

Of course

Anecdotally, Cambridge seems pretty busy/normal to me.

I live centrally and it feels like a lot of students are back. The traffic is certainly getting back to pre-covid levels.

I suspect the increased rates aren't students, as the last time there was a rise in student levels, it showed in the central and north-west areas mainly, where as this increase is more in the east.

Increased rates from students might show up next week, if many returned this past weekend. Some of them might be having to isolate on return, but that could be down to individual colleges.

Selby has always been relatively high in terms of North Yorkshire. There are reports in the local press that there is an outbreak connected to a workplace.

There was an outbreak at a halls for the other Cambridge fairly recently - failey small numbers but possibly enough to make a difference?

11 cases w/e 25th April

If you look at the heat map for Cambridge, then the 15-19yo is the highest, however the next highest is 10-14yo. There are 6 age groupings higher than the 20-24yo.
This would imply that it's more likely that it's schools not students. However, on the basis that if there was an outbreak at halls for the other Cambridge (I assume you mean Anglia Ruskin?) then they would be disproportionally likely to be 18/19yos, so I wouldn't rule it out.

Cambridge uni offers a realitvely high proportion of places in hall to second and third years, so if it was rife there, I'd expect to see a distribution into the 20-24 age grouping.

The heat map only only goes up to 20th April so things may have changed since then, but also to note schools went back on 12th April according to the website.

Interesting about Cambridge with a school term starting April 12th. Taking Sunday with peak lateral flow as the new Monday Sunday 11th, the eve of new school term, had 12 cases in Cambridge, Sunday 18th 18 cases, followed by 12,12,11,9, 8.

Sunday just gone had just 2 cases reported yesterday, and whilst the first day of reporting, a high percentage of lateral flow cases do show on the first day of reporting, so we may well start to see an easing off this week. Perhaps.

As far as Selby goes presumably the only North Yorks council area of any real import is Richmondshire of course.

Nevertheless as observed above certainly since the start of March Selby’s rate has been well above the rest of North Yorks, based on weeks ending each Sunday it has never dropped below 40, and has mainly been in the low 50s per 100,000 before its recent doubling. 31 cases on 22nd April, preceded by a 14 and 21, won’t have helped.

That said although the latest age file from the dashboard only goes to 21st April for Selby in the seven days up to and including that:

73 cases.

Arguably the number in the 60s and over is the most critical. They totalled zero, some sort of vaccine programme doing its job it would appear.

8 in the 10-19 group.

52 in the 25-44 age bands, which would look to link with a workplace outbreak.

For complete the Cambridge age breakdown for most recent 7 days

0-9s 6 cases, more than the total (5) for all aged 45 and over

10-19s 23 cases

20-24s. 14 cases, so presumably picking up many of the AR outbreak.

25-44s. 19 cases

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]www.news-medical.net/news/20210426/Commonly-prescribed-drug-for-IBD-blunts-COVID-19-vaccine-response.aspx?fbclid=IwAR21XgUshD2jzZ56u2KITZD6gg3fIwjbAw2p8ohwy2a8RSNqg15-TtDLxl8[/quote]
What I don't understand is why haven't they advised that these ppl should get the higher efficiency (mRNA) vaccs?

Another good week for vaccine deliveries. Based on the Scotland's info published earlier today, we have received around 3.6 million vaccines this week.

From one of the twitter accounts I follow:

twitter.com/PaulMainwood

UK vaccine status: I think we've ~11m doses stockpiled, equally split AZ and Pfizer + tiny bit Moderna.

This makes projections harder.
Constrained supply = only one narrow path.
Plentiful supply = options (tiny, tiny violin, I know).

I think we're going to see a big week.

One final point about Cambridge it is just about the only council area in England whose rate is significantly higher now as compared with that at the end of lockdown 3. 22.4 then, 60.1 now. The only other is Selby, although up until it’s very recent spike was little changed to its 54.1 starting point.

The other 15 who have a higher current rate have relatively small increases in absolute terms. So the likes of North Devon, South Hams, West Devon for example were 8.2, 4.6, and 7.2 and are now, based on yesterday’s update, 16.5, 11.5 and 9.0 - the first two have two of the largest absolute increases of those remaining 15, but are still at pretty low rates.

Although ancientgran should be using the Torbay exit from her house just to be on the safe side.

Why is it the days I really want to see the data, the dashboard is late?

Oh it’s creaking into life.

19.25% reduction for people in hospital for England week on week (to 24th). For a 20% drop this week, we need 281 less patients in hospital. After the first two days (normally even each other out), it’s 273 to go. So 55 per day. Might be doable.

Nice to see all the other nations in double figures.

Onwards to 770.

@Doomsdayiscoming

Oh it’s creaking into life.

19.25% reduction for people in hospital for England week on week (to 24th). For a 20% drop this week, we need 281 less patients in hospital. After the first two days (normally even each other out), it’s 273 to go. So 55 per day. Might be doable.

Nice to see all the other nations in double figures.

Onwards to 770.

As we are getting close to the magical 770 (the lowest number of people in hospital on dashboard for the U.K. 11th Sept 2020),

The last 6 weeks have produced on average a 22% drop in people in hospital for the U.K.

If (big IF) that rate continues we will achieve 770 around 17th May.

We can't trust any of the figures though, the dashboard is now garbage, the lack of any false positives without comment since at least the 18th brings all of it into disrepute.

@sirfredfredgeorge

We can't trust any of the figures though, the dashboard is now garbage, the lack of any false positives without comment since at least the 18th brings all of it into disrepute.

You can track the PCR only cases if you want. They ought to be reasonably consistent. Rp131 on Twitter does a nice job of it for you. See twitter.com/RP131/status/1387080198345175043?s=19 for the latest chart. Still seems to be heading downwards.

Selby looks like a work place outbreak.

BBC News - Selby Covid infection rise due to workplace outbreak
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-56899444

You can track PCRs, LFDs, and LFDs followed up by a confirmed PCR as the dashboard does show that for England each day. Allowing, as long as you save the data file each day, the latest position to be compared with any previous day to show the case movements.

I’d agree that the proportion of LFDs followed up by a PCR looks to have taken a substantial fall.

Taking each element individually

Pure PCR confirmed cases continue on a downward trajectory. 7 day average of 1306 on 17th April compared with 1109 on 24th April.

In contrast LFDs with no follow up PCR have moved from 399 to 620; and those confirmed by a PCR have gone from 239 to 217. Go back a few more weeks though and it was pretty much a 50:50 split between LFDs not confirmed by a PCR and those that were. So those bothering has just about halved or / and reporting has some quality issues.

I don’t know if it’s showing in the figures yet, presume it is, but there’s outbreaks at two Northampton workplaces apparently. Think I heard the PHD saying 65 cases so far... although that could have been 65 isolating, not sure now I think about it!

You can track the PCR only cases if you want

You can, but the point is, when the dashboard is not showing the data that it purports to show without comment as to why, you can no longer trust any of the features of the dashboard, something has gone wrong with one part, and either not been noticed or not been commented on, either of those things mean you cannot trust any of the numbers, not just the ones that you can see are in error.

For example, the LFD false positives could not be being reported because large numbers of PCR test results being completely lost in the system and not appearing at all, ie both positive and negative results aren't making it to the correlation phase in the dashboard. It's unlikely obviously as why it would just impact some LFD's, but we cannot know, all we know is that the system is not working.

@boys3 - we know that no false positives have been removed, you can see that because the number of unconfirmed has never dropped other than moving to confirmed, previously lots disappeared. This is not people not bothering, it's a reporting error that is deliberately misleading and inflating the numbers.