Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MRex

Sorry, I meant to say, that is the only report I could find too. It does say they recommend redoing our monthly.

I don't understand the obsession in almost every study with stating effectiveness after 14 days when we've known since the trials that effectiveness peaks at 22 days. Why don't they just use 22 days, any ideas?

Impatience to get data maybe? Ought to use at least 21 days when looking at hospital admissions, preferably 4 weeks I would say, to allow for a week or so between symptoms and hospital

@MRex
exceptional british immune systems are react quicker. Especially when they see the flag on a daily basis.

minus "are"

@sirfredfredgeorge

The other slightly strange thing I've noticed, is that lots of the recent cases in south west london boroughs and neighbouring places like elmbridge seem to be in the over 80's, without any corresponding previous rise outside - is there anything reported on that, can't be a single care home outbreak if it's across multiple boroughs can it?

I think "lots" is a slight exaggeration.

Cases for the past 15 days; previous 15 to that (so 1 to 15th April and 17th to 31st March) and for some perspective 1st to 15th Jan. Covers the SW London boroughs and Elmbridge. For ease split under 59s; 60-69s and 70+, final column for each period is the aged 70+ percentage of cases for the period.

England overall numbers included for reference.

Richmond and Kingston have shown a recent increase in that 70+ group, albeit the absolute numbers remain relatively low.

@boys3 - thank you, the right hand side seems to be cut off, can you post the April figures please?

I found the LGA care homes report, but it only reports deaths; some care home deaths in Richmond and none in Kingston; everyone else died in hospital. So it doesn't really explain where the cases came from.

It had a better view of comparing vaccination rates across London than I've seen elsewhere though: lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/lga-research-report-covid-19-vaccinations-la-view?mod-area=E09000021&mod-group=AllBoroughInRegion_London&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup.

@MRex. Not sure what has happened there. I will re-post.

@MRex
Nice find!
It would be helpful if they had a column in the last table showing the overall 18+ (vax eligible) number of ppl. Because having vaccinated eg 4x% of the population could potentially mean having vaccinated 80% of 18+.... it's not so, but I don't think people know the age distribution within boroughs. I only know vaguely Richmond as I looked it up a few months ago.

Can any of you recall any papers/stats on the following:

• how many have gotten ill -not hospitalized- with covid after 14/22 days of receiving the first jab? Potentially broken down by jab type.

My H asked me and I had no idea...

Could the higher proportion of cases be due to diligent testing in care homes picking up positives in one or two homes? It doesn't indicate whether or not the cases were symptomatic or at all unwell.

Richmond and Kingston have mostly had lowish rates throughout so a few cases in the over 70s would be quite a high percentage despite being a low number.

Of course this doesn't explain why the same thing isn't happening elsewhere. Unless 'elsewhere' (wherever that may be) has more cases among the young which makes a few cases in older groups look proportionately smaller.

I have no idea. Just speculating.

trying again

@TheSunIsStillShining

Can any of you recall any papers/stats on the following:

• how many have gotten ill -not hospitalized- with covid after 14/22 days of receiving the first jab? Potentially broken down by jab type.

My H asked me and I had no idea...

This is a good question. The furore about 'AZ not working on SA variant' all came about because of asymptomatic/not-very-unwell cases among a small sample of vaccinated younger people in South Africa (they had a smaller gap between doses than we do: 21-35 days).

Which, to me suggests it could work well at preventing severe disease/hospitalisation/death. Except that the sample was unhelpfully small and young so it didn't tell us much about large numbers of older people.

You would expect it to be possible for people to still test positive after being successfully vaccinated while their immune system dealt with an encounter with the virus. The vaccines don't set up a force field round a person to prevent the virus reaching them, but they prime the immune system to recognise and deal with the virus before it makes the person ill. And some people's bodies will do that quicker and more thoroughly than others.

the background to the question is that he wanted to get an idea on how likely it is that he will not become infected. He was wondering about the likelihood of long-covid in vaccinated ppl. Potentially with these ppl never having any big symptoms.

All efficacy trials are about infections leading to moderate/severe + hospitalization, but no real data about infected/mild cases.
I guess to measure these the trials would have to be designed differently, so I get why -in a rush- everyone was focusing on death/hospitalization.

@Firefliess

Article here saying figures show only 32 people have been hospitalised with Covid 3+ weeks after having vaccination

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/20/exclusive-just-32-people-hospital-covid-vaccination/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AxBk4rLpZ5tx

That seems a very low figure to me. Around 17,000 admitted in total since the start of March - a time when most over 70s and ECV would have had 3+ weeks since their first. jab. Also says fuller data on this expected out this week and on the impact of second doses in due course.

Re outbreaks among over 80s in some areas - my guess would be people picking it up at vaccination centres, or doing more socialising once they feel confident having had a second jab, or possibly further care home outbreaks. But if they're not ending up in hospital then it's not much to worry about.

I just don't understand this when you look at the deaths of people in hospital. Who were presumably hospitalised.

Just looking at today's deaths. Out of 25, 13 were over 80 and another 10 were 60-79. Are we supposed to be believe that none of them were vaccinated?

thinking of what I said above, I suppose the 13 could be vaccinated but in hospital for reasons other than covid, and tested positive for covid, but perhaps weren't actually ill from it. I still think that 32 figure must be massively misleading though.

When we talk about the percentage that are protected by the vaccine that does leave a percentage, however small that don’t develop immunity. Then there is also a small percentage who don’t take it up. Deaths are now low enough for both these factors to be applicable.

I think some of the data here on worldwide vaccination and death rates is interesting:

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/apr/21/how-vaccines-are-affecting-covid-19-outbreaks-globally

@frazzled. Doesn't seem completely implausible to me that quite a few of the 20 odd deaths in a day of over 70s are unvaccinated people. 5% of people unvaccinated is still quite a lot of people, and polling also shows that those who refuse the vaccine are likely also to say that social interactions are already safe so may be at quite a high risk of catching it.

But the Telegraph's figures are clearly quite out of date as based on people who were 3+ weeks from vaccination when they caught Covid and admitted by 5 March, which is quite a small group.

I think some of the data here on worldwide vaccination and death rates is interesting

Yes, I agree it is a good summary but I wish people could describe the Chile's situation more accurately:

• Chile is lagging behind the UK in first dose vaccinations;
• Chile has been relying on a less effective vaccine (especially considering the first dose efficacy);
• The current level of cases in Chile reflects vaccination status from one month ago.

I do not think anyone can use Chile as an example of a "vaccinated country that opened up too early".

However, if we see a new wave in Israel this will be much more worrying.

but I don't think people know the age distribution within boroughs

I'd agree - I didn't! :)

A bit of a simple breakdown 0-19 yrs; 20-39; 40-64 (ignore the 40-65 on the graph legend, that's just me not paying attention); Aged 65+ to show percentage in each band this is:

• overall showing every English council; the red lines show the overall England position
• England overall and regional figures; and;
• All the London Boroughs

ONS 2019 mid year estimate as published last June (so the most recent available) provides the source population data. Isles of Scilly and City of London not shown as individual areas but included in regional and national totals.

Upper tier councils by region

• East, East Mids and North East
• North West and South East
• South West, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber

[quote Firefliess]@frazzled. Doesn't seem completely implausible to me that quite a few of the 20 odd deaths in a day of over 70s are unvaccinated people. 5% of people unvaccinated is still quite a lot of people, and polling also shows that those who refuse the vaccine are likely also to say that social interactions are already safe so may be at quite a high risk of catching it.

But the Telegraph's figures are clearly quite out of date as based on people who were 3+ weeks from vaccination when they caught Covid and admitted by 5 March, which is quite a small group. [/quote]
Agree with what you're saying. Not totally implausible but as you say a pretty small group to base your data on. Hopefully there will be more clarity as things progress.

Lower tier councils

• Cambridgeshire to East Sussex
• Essex to Hertfordshire
• Kent to Leicestershire

Lower tier councils

• Lincolnshire to Northamptonshire
• Nottinghamshire to Suffolk
• Surrey to Worcestershire

Numbers for the 45-49 age band who have received first dose now included at council and MSOA level in the weekly NHS (England) stats published this afternoon.