Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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ONS figures on antibodies are out. Bit disappointing at 54.9%. Noticeable drop offs in the older age cohorts. Hopefully these are the people now being boosted ( and that immunity doesn’t rely solely on antibodies but T-cell etc).

Still can’t help but feel a bit disappointed.

Link below (sorry it’s long I can’t get it to shorten!

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/14april2021

Sorry should have said 54.9% is the English figure

@ceeveebee and everyone - apologies. I just checked again and it does say 13.7%, not 23%. I'm sure it did say that, but I strongly suspect it was the actual number of deaths I got mixed up in my head, as it was 23.

Back to just lurking and not posting 😑

Aaaaaaargh. I just lost a long and thoughtful post I wrote about B.1.617, the India variant. Here's the short version with fewer links but I can relink other bits of people are interested in specifics.

India: allowed political and religious rallies with big crowds of unvaccinated people, surprised by new infections. What's odd though is zero B.1.1.7 reported recently when we know Kent variant was spreading there: www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/.

Canada: torontosun.com/news/local-news/indias-variant-fuelled-second-wave-coincided-with-spike-in-infected-flights-landing-in-canada

Interested in thoughts from others on this variant.

Oh no need to apologise, easily done and please do keep posting!

Oh, I forgot two of the important links. This article days B.1.617 has been found in UK: www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2021/apr/11/covid-19-indian-doublemutant-strain-found-in-us-germany-uk-two-other-nations-2288429.amp.
UK Gov VOC dashboard doesn't seem to have it listed: www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data.

[quote Ilovecrumpets]ONS figures on antibodies are out. Bit disappointing at 54.9%. Noticeable drop offs in the older age cohorts. Hopefully these are the people now being boosted ( and that immunity doesn’t rely solely on antibodies but T-cell etc).

Still can’t help but feel a bit disappointed.

Link below (sorry it’s long I can’t get it to shorten!

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/14april2021[/quote]
They will have the memory cells primed. They will pump out the antibodies when needed.

I’d say 55% is mega.

doomsday

I agree they hopefully do have memory cells and disappointed may be a bit strong but I do think we could have hoped for a rise whereas in effect we are flat the last few weeks.

It also may play into vaccines effect on transmission of relaying on memory cells - but lets hope not and that evidence comes out on this soon!

I do think if a good % is achieved the surge testing in Wandsworth and Lambeth could provide some interesting data. What would be partic interesting would be if they could track asymptomatic infection/vaccinated link generally and of the SA variant.

I was also wondering if those counties in Europe who are switching to different vaccine for second dose re AZ are going to try and track those individuals ( obviously would need people to volunteer) as again would be a good real world test of using two different vaccines - although not sure how large the numbers would be in practice.

[quote Ilovecrumpets]ONS figures on antibodies are out. Bit disappointing at 54.9%. Noticeable drop offs in the older age cohorts. Hopefully these are the people now being boosted ( and that immunity doesn’t rely solely on antibodies but T-cell etc).

Still can’t help but feel a bit disappointed.

Link below (sorry it’s long I can’t get it to shorten!

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/14april2021[/quote]
I don't think the dates included in the report are massively helpful. It takes about 3 weeks to build up antibodies post vaccine, so including percentage vaccinated by various dates should be backdated accordingly. If the report is week ending 28th March then we should be looking at the total vaccinated 1st-7th March, let's assume even swab distribution through the week and take 4th March.

1. 21,358,815 vaccinated by 4th March, which is 32% of the 67m population.
2. Add seropositives from the 1st April surveillance report (or the one earlier but not much difference) is 14.5% in England.
3. We should have 46.5%. Target beaten, people are getting antibodies earlier than the 3 weeks.

Once the 10m already vaccinated since then get their immunity that's another 15% to add. To avoid duplication of the extras I'll add to 46%, we're on minimum 62% coverage with the under-50s only just starting their vaccination, many of whom will build immunity faster than the older cohort.

I think it's positive.

By the way, the "flat" bit is I think largely a mix of waning natural immunity and the random variation that can occur from extrapolating these surveys up.

Perhaps also the extra percentage is explained by the type of people who do ONS; if you're willing to be regularly tested you're almost certainly going to be in the vaccinated cohort.

I'm in the ONS study and had my first vaccine on 14/03, but won't show up as having antibodies (even if I had them by then) as the tube was faulty and all the liquid had leaked out before I did my sample last week. Result came back inconclusive, all my others have been negative.

If we assume herd immunity is 70% of the population; could argue either way that children are less infectious or that mixing by age threatens herd immunity, so I'll just leave it at 70% of the population which is 90% of adults. By that point we may as well ignore natural infection immunity, because most of them will have also been vaccinated; perhaps 5% could cover children and those who don't for a vaccine because they know they've had covid.
So 65% of the population must be jabbed, which is 84% of 52m adults or 43.7m, so 11.5m more need to be vaccinated or 58% of all other adults; we know ~8% are people from older or otherwise eligible groups who already declined (6% expanded to full population), so that requires 66% take-up from remaining adults.

Does that sound about right?

Data is on time for once
2471 cases
38 deaths

76,123 first doses, 312,685 second doses.

@MRex

76,123 first doses, 312,685 second doses.

Very good to see the total figures back up again.

Spec dates for the cases added to England today.

In reverse order.

2020 Spec dates, a net reduction of 19

1 January to 25 March 2021 net addition of 4

Then

300 knocked off between 26 and 31 March.

1 to 6 April 84 cases added

7th to 9th April 420 cases added

10th. 139 cases

11th 143 cases

12th 947 cases

13th 636 cases

So although 2054 cases added overall in England, the figure for the last seven days is 2285 additions. At the moment

Why are deaths up?

Thanks, boys3. The case numbers seem to be all over the place because of historic restatements. The specimen date analysis is therefore very useful.

@bathsh3ba

Why are deaths up?

Previous 7 day period covered the long Easter bank holidays weekend.

By date of death, and building in a lag for reporting, numbers continue to fall.

Deaths aren't actually up by date of death. They're just up by date reported. There was probably a backlog reporting over Easter so the rolling 7 day average of deaths reported is up. These charts of @RP131 on Twitter show it more clearly. twitter.com/RP131/status/1382353850531733506

The rolling average by date of death has reduced 33% week on week and is now at the lowest it's been since 17 September, according to Richard Lister who posts the graphs.

Thanks both. Had a bit of a minor panic when I saw it go up!

@MRex

Aaaaaaargh. I just lost a long and thoughtful post I wrote about B.1.617, the India variant. Here's the short version with fewer links but I can relink other bits of people are interested in specifics.

India: allowed political and religious rallies with big crowds of unvaccinated people, surprised by new infections. What's odd though is zero B.1.1.7 reported recently when we know Kent variant was spreading there: www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/.

Canada: torontosun.com/news/local-news/indias-variant-fuelled-second-wave-coincided-with-spike-in-infected-flights-landing-in-canada

Interested in thoughts from others on this variant.

I'm surprised that this variant isn't yet listed on the VOC dashboard. I don't know how reliable this article is, but it claims the UK has 23% of all the cases of it: weather.com/en-IN/india/coronavirus/news/2021-04-10-india-double-mutant-coronavirus-variant-named-b1617

This week's update on variants (should be out tomorrow) will be interesting given what's going on in London. It won't be until next week at the earliest that the surge testing data filters through.

picking up on Doom's posts around hospitalisations.

These three graphs plot the weekly number of cases; 7 day average for the number in hospital, 7 day average for hospital admissions. all figures relate to England only - given Health is devolved and we have four different roadmaps.

The left hand side shows the figures from start of August to end of September last year; then the right hand side, figures since the start of March through to w/e 11th April.

The red dotted line tracks back from where the current position is as compared with September; hence cases in the most recent week are roughly the same level as the first week of last September.

and to go with the three above the same for deaths within 28 days of a positive day by date of death; obviously the most recent week's figure could creep up a little bit further.

I am right in believing a long term patient for reason X, who acquired covid in hospital, but remains in hospital for the reason X, is removed from the hospitalisations after the covid is gone? Or only after 28 days.

I also assume that covid acquisition in hospital is no longer high, the high rates only happen when there are high cases in hospital due to the difficulty to separate them?