Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I would assume it's the asympomatic part that is reassuring - that most people they found with it don't have serious illness which is good in itself but also means they are less likely in general to transmit as much.

Asymptomatic.

@Firefliess

The main worry with a care home outbreak of the SA strain is that this would suggest it was spreading through a vaccinated population. In some ways I'd be less worried about a school outbreak, as most school pupils aren't vaccinated so we know it'll spread among them.

Interesting that they're saying the care home outbreak was detected via asymptomatic testing though. I think it's generally not so common for old people to be asymptomatic, which might suggest some protection from severe infection against the SA strain provided by the vaccine (or possibly just that they were testing very frequently and picked up people before they developed any symptoms)

Care home staff in Lambeth originally had quite low take-up, I don't know if that's still the case though. It's also not clear which areas the infections were in, I presume generally around Clapham Common and that's why the numbers are low but both boroughs.

There is a fairly big end of life hospice there, my friend was there for a while before he died. I hope they weren't affected.

Yes guess that’s true on. I think I saw it as meaning it’s probably got more community transmission. I always view this variant as more of a wider risk than individual risk of that makes sense.

Anyway let’s hope surge testing works!

Mrex - I don’t think the numbers in Wandsworth and Lambeth are clustered near each other ( I initially thought that). The March initial cases it mentions were nearer to Roehampton in Wandsworth. In case number atm it’s the west Putney/Barnes areas that are higher ( not that that means the higher numbers correlate to the variant).

Sorry if I'm annoying anyone, but I don't know who else to talk to.

This from the NHS says the second dose should be between 77 & 84 days fir best efficacy

here

I'm being offered it at 63 days

The advice to GPs about second doses sounds pretty clear, so I'm not sure why they're inviting early. ??

I don't know what to do

Second doses should be offered within 77-84 days. The clinical evidence for the COVID-19 AstraZeneca vaccine shows better efficacy following a 12-week gap, which is the basis of the JCVI recommendation

The document does say that it can be varied for operational convenience, which is what the GP is presumably doing, given your concern I would simply book at the standard timescale, however there is no evidence of any extra risk from vaccinating at 63 days rather than 77, and very little evidence of any extra benefit. Convenience to you is probably worth more.

As you're concerned though, I'd just make an appointment for the relevant time.

LatteLoverLovesLattes

I would personally push the second dose back but it is a question of personal choice.

The WHO recommendation for the AZ second dose is a 8 to 12 weeks gap:

www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know

The recommended dosage is two doses given intramuscularly (0.5ml each) with an interval of 8 to 12 weeks.

The efficacy of the vaccine keeps increasing if the second dose is delayed. However, delaying from 8 weeks to 12 weeks makes much less of a difference than a delay from 4 weeks to 8.

@sirfredfredgeorge
@wintertravel1980

Thank you for your replies.

I went onto the booking site & it had a few options, the furthest out is the 24th currently, so I've booked that. That's 77 days. I may rebook to the following week at 84 days when it becomes available.

I did see they could offer it early for operational convenience, and our GP has been extremely efficient (I do realise how incredibly fortunate I was to get the first one so early). I'm in the shielding group (or ex shielding group) so I just want to maximise the efficacy. I'll take whatever gain I can get waiting from 9 to 12 weeks 😊

I didn't expect it to give me the opportunity to book the 24th rather than the 17th or I would have just done that.

Thanks again for your replies.

I’ve been a regular reader of these threads for the last year and they’ve been incredibly informative. Has anyone got any insights as to why Mansfield is at the top of the chart as it were, with the highest case rate per 100,000? The rest of Nottinghamshire seems to have falling case rates, but Mansfield seems out of line. All I can find online is a press article from a few days ago mentioning school outbreaks.

@lostandfoundedges

I’ve been a regular reader of these threads for the last year and they’ve been incredibly informative. Has anyone got any insights as to why Mansfield is at the top of the chart as it were, with the highest case rate per 100,000? The rest of Nottinghamshire seems to have falling case rates, but Mansfield seems out of line. All I can find online is a press article from a few days ago mentioning school outbreaks.

Have a look at the heat map at the bottom of the government dashboard (after changing it from United Kingdom to Mansfield). It shows you the ages of people who've tested positive. It does look to me that there's been an outbreak in a secondary school, and also quite high cases in the 30-50 age group - quite possibly some of whom are parents of the kids who caught it.

@Ilovecrumpets

Mrex - I don’t think the numbers in Wandsworth and Lambeth are clustered near each other ( I initially thought that). The March initial cases it mentions were nearer to Roehampton in Wandsworth. In case number atm it’s the west Putney/Barnes areas that are higher ( not that that means the higher numbers correlate to the variant).

It's hard to tell isn't it, because we don't know how old the cases are. There are a few cases dotted around Clapham and Stockwell but very few. Also Earlsfield, funnily enough I used to know 3 South Africans all separately living in Earlsfield, though I expect the variant arrived from the EU instead as there's so little travel now. There are cases by Richmond Park just next to Roehampton, hopefully it hasn't spread that far to get out of the borough.

Is there any way to find out where the Moderna vaccs are going?

Looks like the AZ supply situation has massively improved.

Scotland's supply of allocated vaccines has gone up by 313,080 (4,127,540 reported today vs 3,814,460 reported a week ago).

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

If Scotland has received 300k this week, whole of the UK must have got nearly 4mm (Scotland's numbers multiplied by 8).

I guess we will never know what exactly has happened but the supply dynamic is definitely very interesting.

Here is some background why Scotland's vaccine numbers published each Tuesday are important:

twitter.com/PaulMainwood

@lostandfoundedges the case rate for the 10-14 age band is currently over 640 per 100,000 in Mansfield, for context the next highest for that age group is 250, and for the East Mids overall 74.

Whilst it’s not the worst for 15-19s, it’s still third highest at over 240.

From the age download file 53 out of 118 cases for the 7 days to 7th April are in the 10 to 14, and 15-19 bands, 40 and 13 cases respectively.

On a more positive note though 0 cases in each age band from 75 up, just 1 in 70 to 74s and 2 in 65-69s.

The MSOA file also shows a fairly consistent overall rate, a majority unfortunately all fairly high.

When did the school Easter Hols start in Notts? Are they back this week or another week to go?

Thank you for your replies about Mansfield. They broke up on 1st April and go back to school on the 19th boys

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/increase-coronavirus-cases-mansfield-down-5280389.amp

From the local paper.

Which, having re-read your post, you probably have already seen!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56733715

Johnson and Johnson paused in the US due to blood clots.

I meant to add - I only added that link/news article ^ because it may put further restrictions on supply of alternative vaccines (Pfizer)

Much more detail on the SA surge testing: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56729607.

• Person in February came from Africa and isolated but infected family members
• Twenty-three cases of the South African variant were detected in Lambeth care home - 13 staff and 10 residents. 6 of the residents had an AZ dose 2 weeks earlier and only 1 staff member had Pfizer 2 weeks earlier. (I thought it was 3 weeks for immunity anyway, but obviously 12 staff members and 4 residents not vaccinated and infected...)
• 2 primary schools in Wandsworth linked to the primary case.

And drumroll SEWAGE IS BEING USED:
An examination of wastewater in a small area of nearby Southwark also identified the presence of the South African variant, though that has not yet been linked to the outbreak in Lambeth and Wandsworth.

I am now curious how UK has got hold of 4mm vaccines over one week.

• 975k is Pfizer (constant flow, surprising consistency with the original delivery schedule briefly revealed by Scotland). Whoever has negotiated the UK Pfizer contract deserves a lot of respect.
• AZ domestic production was previously estimated at 2mm a week
• 125k (best case) is Moderna

What about the remaining 900k?

Have we managed to boost the domestic supply of AZ? Have we started importing AZ from the EU?

BTW, I made a typo in my previous post. Scotland is 8% of UK so to get to the UK wide numbers, we need to multiple Scotland's data by 12.5.

@PussyCatEatingEasterEggs

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56733715

Johnson and Johnson paused in the US due to blood clots.

It was inevitable really, whether the issue is the adenovirus vector or the covid antibodies there are a tiny minority who have it cause a platelet issue. I suspect the USA will get medical advice and patient leaflets out everywhere, then restart at pace again, they're a bit more pragmatic in general.

@wintertravel1980 - India? Some areas say they're running short, but it sounds more like a distribution challenge now.