Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There are corrections and movements to old cases every day, tests removed, tests added, I suspect some of it may even be fluctuations that happen every day. Most times this has little impact on the headline figures as it's added one day removed another.

In recent days there has been a lot of fluctuation on the unconfirmed LFD's, almost certainly due to the realisation that they need to remove false positives to be at all fair with the figures, and the adjustments here are considerably more significant.

Dashboards are never accurate, they can often be deliberately misleading, in general I think dashboards are overall harmful, because too many people use them superficially. However here data is generally pretty good, look at cases and deaths by specimen date though, that's the important thing, not the announced date.

So if it's the same across the UK then roughly half of today's cases are actually old backlog corrections?

Yes, and also remember that ~15-40% of the 717 LFD only reported today were likely false positives based on the march numbers.

Although the adjustments may not be UK wide, but could be England specific depending on what caused them.

And yesterday there was a negative correction of about 550 cases so the cases reported looked lower than actually was

I don’t think it’s helpful to look at a single snapshot of a day, nor to look at the “by reported date” figures. The most consistent measure is 7 day rolling rate by specimen date.

Although with the increase in LFD tests in March that is also quite lumpy at the moment....

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268

Here's a link to an article in the BMJ Re Dosing Intervals

It does seem to be saying that 12 weeks is optimal. Less than 6 weeks is sub optimal. But I can't see anything for 9 weeks.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I use the data superficially because despite a lifetime of numbers & complex calculations, I currently seem to be in a situation where my brain appears to have been replaced by fecking marshmallow. It's causing me no end of distress at a time where I want to be on top of data and numbers but currently can barely add 2+2

I need some superficial data. Somewhere I can see, fairly easily, what's really happening. Something trustworthy. It anyone can recommend something, very basic, I'd be very grateful.

It’s taking them a while to clear up this coffee spill on the dashboard.

Do people think RPhillips13 (is that correct?) is the best source? I might just have to join Twitter for hi, it’s always so clear when others post it on here (for which, thank you!)

[quote LatteLoverLovesLattes]@sirfredfredgeorge

I use the data superficially because despite a lifetime of numbers & complex calculations, I currently seem to be in a situation where my brain appears to have been replaced by fecking marshmallow. It's causing me no end of distress at a time where I want to be on top of data and numbers but currently can barely add 2+2

I need some superficial data. Somewhere I can see, fairly easily, what's really happening. Something trustworthy. It anyone can recommend something, very basic, I'd be very grateful.[/quote]
My advice is to look at the map. It runs 5 days behind to get correct cases by specimen date and takes about 20 minutes to load after the main figures update. What you can see though is a snapshot. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
Drill down if you want more local information, but give it a little time for colours to load as it can be slow.

1. White / yellow = fantastic, bang on where we need to be.
2. Light green / dark green = OK, but we don't want it to go higher.
3. Blue = bad, be careful because cases are high
4. Purple = terrible, be very careful, avoid any unnecessary interaction
5. Dark purple = pretend you're shielding if you can, reschedule low priority medical appointments, just stay home.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Do people think RPhillips13 (is that correct?) is the best source? I might just have to join Twitter for hi, it’s always so clear when others post it on here (for which, thank you!)

I think you mean RP131 on twitter? twitter.com/RP131?s=09

Yes I think he's very good. Very clear updates on cases, deaths, etc. I've started following quite a few very good scientists and modellers on Twitter. If you pick and choose carefully avoiding both the Covid-deniers and lockdown-forever brigades you can find some really enlightening analysis. Twitter is one way as well - in that you can follow whoever you like regardless of who you are or how little you post. It's not reciprocal like FB or LinkedIn.

Thanks firefliess, had a feeling there was something wrong with my rendition

[quote LatteLoverLovesLattes]@sirfredfredgeorge

I use the data superficially because despite a lifetime of numbers & complex calculations, I currently seem to be in a situation where my brain appears to have been replaced by fecking marshmallow. It's causing me no end of distress at a time where I want to be on top of data and numbers but currently can barely add 2+2

I need some superficial data. Somewhere I can see, fairly easily, what's really happening. Something trustworthy. It anyone can recommend something, very basic, I'd be very grateful.[/quote]
Not sure if this is going to work...
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

If you click on "Data" tab above the first graph, it will give you number of cases by the date tested rather than reported. Pick the most recent number and compare it with same day a week before.

All Wandsworth and Lambeth adults/teens called upon to be (surge) tested as possible 70+ cases of SA variant found:

And more details of the testing from Wandsworth
www.wandsworth.gov.uk/news/news-april-2021/extra-testing-to-be-deployed-after-cases-of-covid-19-variant-identified/?fbclid=IwAR0H00DjtVsr5M4G-NTsFUfB0vuFxSjWfTM3a-8N83rnrw-aWtdWeCH1k08

That's not good news about the SA strain outbreak in Wandsworth and Lambeth - 44 definite new cases and 30 more probable ones, just on the day people are heading out to pub gardens and schools are back. BBC News - Covid: Surge testing in Wandsworth and Lambeth after South African variant cluster found
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56726553
If it isn't held back by the vaccine it'll spread unless this surge testing really can work.

@mrex. Thanks, but unfortunately I can't Xoom in or use my post code on thst - not on my iPhone & not in my iPad. It just closes down 🤦🏻‍♀️

@CarrotPuff. Thank you. I have SEM that before, but I thought it was using the same data as the dashboard.

Re Wandsworth and Lambeth - they aren’t doing any door to door testing which is interesting. It looks like they never fully got on top of the smaller outbreak at the beginning of March when they only surge tested certain postcodes.

The Wandsworth booking was also a bit of a shambles and atm very limited slots. Am not sure how many people will bother tbh unless they make it easier ( still Easter holidays - who wants to go and stand and test with their kids. Infact who wants to go and queue when asymptomatic with a load of other people tbh...)

The Wandsworth and Lambeth pages look very different.
www.wandsworth.gov.uk/health-and-social-care/public-health/coronavirus/surge-testing/
beta.lambeth.gov.uk/enhanced-coronavirus-covid-19-testing-lambeth/how-get-test

To me the Lambeth page looks much clearer and punchier and a pure walk-in system is simpler (including takeaway test kits) but I don’t know what their admin will be like for all the walk-ins.

Anecdata alert. I actually took a PCR test in Lambeth a week ago because I was feeling a bit headachy and hot and about to visit an elderly relative. I had a full choice of 5 minute testing slots for the next day so I picked the first one in the morning and when I turned up I was the only testee there and outnumbered literally ten to one by the staff the whole time.

I may be wrong but I suspect Lambeth has a better resourced local public health team and approach still. Given Wandsworth’s general approach to services and council tax!

Having said that they have now updated the webpage to make it a little clearer than it was yesterday following lots of comments on Twitter!

SKY News reporting that many of the variant cases were picked up via asymptomatic testing in care homes and schools: presumably LFTs > confirmatory PCRs > genomic sequencing, which means several days’ delay?

Jan that’s what the lady from Lambeth said on radio 4. It wasn’t clear if that was just for Lambeth though.

She also said it as if it was a bit reassuring but I wasn’t clear why that would be.

As I said if they want people to actually test they need to use some wider comms and make it easier.

@Ilovecrumpets

I may be wrong but I suspect Lambeth has a better resourced local public health team and approach still. Given Wandsworth’s general approach to services and council tax!

Having said that they have now updated the webpage to make it a little clearer than it was yesterday following lots of comments on Twitter!

Having lived in both aread... Lambeth is abysmal at everything with staff who always seem to be overworked and struggling, whereas Wandsworth is very on the ball with good services. I've no idea how it works out like that. Public health might be different, but I suspect not.

Ilovecrumpets I guess possibly better because the car homes are at least relatively contained populations?? Although of course we know that that is also one of the reasons why Covid in care homes can be disastrous.

The main worry with a care home outbreak of the SA strain is that this would suggest it was spreading through a vaccinated population. In some ways I'd be less worried about a school outbreak, as most school pupils aren't vaccinated so we know it'll spread among them.

Interesting that they're saying the care home outbreak was detected via asymptomatic testing though. I think it's generally not so common for old people to be asymptomatic, which might suggest some protection from severe infection against the SA strain provided by the vaccine (or possibly just that they were testing very frequently and picked up people before they developed any symptoms)

Mrex sadly Wandsworth public health services ( in the broadest sense) are really not great. So sounds similar to Lambeth!

firefliess care home could also be staff as well of course. Wandsworth like a lot of London has lower vacc take up generally