EU threaten to cut off vaccine supply to the UK 3

[EasterIssland]

Thread 2 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4200959-EU-threaten-to-cut-off-vaccine-supply-to-the-UK-2?pg=1

I voted leave but i’m actually changing my mind, because I didn’t realise what a big influence we are, I thought we’re just a little island, they won’t even notice we have gone but I have now learnt we had more clout than I ever knew. We manage €45 trillion worth of contracts for the EU, 3 times bigger than their whole economy

Why would that make you want to stay though Baileys? How does it impact on the reasons that made you want to leave?

Our clout remains our clout in terms of our economy and markets. Selfishly I'm glad we've only got to pay for our own recovery after this, not also pay for other countries and be a party to forcing smaller countries to agree to even greater austerity and slashing of public services and quality of life.

I personally do feel the future of the EU is uncertain - the politics across the region are increasingly divergent and incompatible and the gap between economies likely to widen also (and obviously the two are linked). Europe has a lot of far right parties that never really go away and the far right loves financial crisis'. I can't see it holding together effectively long term.

@TheHoneyBadger I didn’t think we had any say on how the EU was run, I think we had more say than I thought. If the EU crumbles it will effect the UK. It seems to be falling apart without us. Russia on Ukraine border worries me as well.

@NewLevelsOfTiredness I think the reason that Macron is taken to be representative of the EU is because he's one of the keenest federalists and kept blocking any compromises in the Brexit negotiations.

I don't think the EU will crumble. The politics aren't as increasingly divergent as it might seem - they're madly divergent but always have been. There have been political swings to the left that don't make the news as much as the other way. Orban in Hungary is perhaps the most alarming populist extreme right winger right now, but most of the other 'right' parties in power are pragmatic enough to see more problems than benefits in leaving. Desire to leave the EU fell dramatically during the whole Brexit saga.

The financial bust in 2009 didn't break things up. Bailing out Greece didn't break things up. The UK's economy over the next couple of years will be interesting because the general feeling here at least is that based on Brexit, leaving the EU is more hassle than it's worth. The whole fog of the corona crisis makes it hard to see what the impact of Brexit is so far.

France will be interesting I guess - Macron's blunders has sadly opened the door for Le Pen and I imagine she'll rock the boat.

The EU is a marriage of convenience, and continues to be more convenient than the single life.

Baileys - I find it very weird (and disturbing) how the whole Russia/Ukraine thing seems to have been 'forgotten' - scary, I agree.

[quote DdraigGoch]@NewLevelsOfTiredness I think the reason that Macron is taken to be representative of the EU is because he's one of the keenest federalists and kept blocking any compromises in the Brexit negotiations.[/quote]
A fair point, but surely it's fair to look at it from the other angle that he was not representative of the EU, since he was a lone voice in that?

But I think it showed how obstructive a lone voice could be - and how the loudest voices can have a lot of air and can mess with nations' fate.

I think the UK is not representative of most EU nations in that it does have that strong global finance position and a strong currency which possibly makes it more viable to go it alone than many of the EU nations would find it - especially the net beneficiaries. So whilst the desire to leave might be present and loud sometimes in some countries the pragmatics would still be a huge deterrent.

Have to say I hate the term 'bail out' for what happened with Greece. It makes it sound like they were just charitably slung some cash which is not the reality.

No, fair enough, there were some very harsh terms and conditions along with it.

NLT

I don't think the EU will crumble. The politics aren't as increasingly divergent as it might seem - they're madly divergent but always have been. There have been political swings to the left that don't make the news as much as the other way.

Agreed, and the way the "news" is written has been part of the problem......

[quote Baileysforchristmas]@TheHoneyBadger I didn’t think we had any say on how the EU was run, I think we had more say than I thought. If the EU crumbles it will effect the UK. It seems to be falling apart without us. Russia on Ukraine border worries me as well.[/quote]
Yes the EU is weaker without the UK and the UK is weaker without the EU!

Its why Trump and Putin both wanted Brexit, they saw splitting europe and beneficial for their own aims.

UK refused to agree to cooperate on foreign policy during the talks last year, this is foolhardy.

Fair play to be open minded enough to consider other opinions.

I think the UK is not representative of most EU nations in that it does have that strong global finance position and a strong currency which possibly makes it more viable to go it alone than many of the EU nations would find it

Sterling has fallen in value against the euro since 1999, sterling is not what it was, previous to that, i recall a series of devaluations in the 60s and 70s (before EEC)

As far as i can see, per capita, we are around 23rd richest country in the world, not even top 10 in europe, in absolute terms, on par with France/Italy, way behind Germany.

But as i said earlier, together we are lot stronger than our individual parts... or rather we were.

www.politico.eu/article/johnson-and-johnson-delays-european-vaccine-rollout-blood-clot-concerns/

UK refused to agree to cooperate on foreign policy during the talks last year

Good! Cosying up to Russia and China is not a 'foreign policy' I want to be wedded to.

Sterling is still strong ffs - you're just being silly now. And comparing the currency of a small island nation and that of a 27 country block is a bit daft. Though even when you do that it comes out favourably.

You're so determined to hate the UK that you'd actually deny that Sterling is a strong currency?

[quote Baileysforchristmas]www.politico.eu/article/johnson-and-johnson-delays-european-vaccine-rollout-blood-clot-concerns/[/quote]
Are they still using it in the USA?

6 cases in 6.8million? Surely that's less than the number of bloody clot issues in 6.8million non vaccinated people of vulnerable age groups? Are they just 'proactively' preventing EU from smearing the name of their vaccine too?

@TheHoneyBadger usa has been recommended to stop using it , because of this it's been delayed in the EU as well

Thanks.

From BBC:
"The Johnson & Johnson vaccine works in a very similar way to the AstraZeneca one, so in some ways it's not surprising they may cause similar side effects. And they appear to be comparably rare.

The numbers we're talking about are so low that it's difficult to say confidently what the risk of fatal blood clots is, but for the AstraZeneca jab it has been estimated at one-in-a-million. There have been six cases out of 6.8 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson jab.

In contrast, Covid kills one in 1,000 infected in their 40s among those who develop symptoms (and this risk is much higher among older people)."

Seems like, to me, they should remain available to anyone who wants them but people under 40 might want to make their own risk evaluations given they're not at high risk from covid infection? I don't think a 1 in a million risk is justification for pausing vaccinating older and more vulnerable groups.

Ukraine and Russia issue is ramping up.

www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-foreign-minister-urges-nato-action-to-prevent-war-with-russia/

I don’t think the EU countries should be buying Russian vaccines and Germany shouldn’t be doing deals re Nord stream 2 oil line from Russia to Germany.

No, and I don't think not wanting to align our foreign policy with that was 'foolhardy'.

@TheHoneyBadger

6 cases in 6.8million? Surely that's less than the number of bloody clot issues in 6.8million non vaccinated people of vulnerable age groups? Are they just 'proactively' preventing EU from smearing the name of their vaccine too?

I was wondering similar TheHoneybadger I'm thinking they have seen what has happened with EU and AZ and said 'no thanks, we would rather not send it at all than have to deal with that type of shenanigans'.

I can't say I'd blame them.

I'm thinking they have seen what has happened with EU and AZ and said 'no thanks, we would rather not send it at all than have to deal with that type of shenanigans'.

That's one heck of a big shoe horn you are using there....Given that both the FDA and CDC have raised concerns and have recommended a pause if you believe this is all still about "the EU" I have a bridge I can sell you....

www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/04/13/986709618/u-s-recommends-pausing-use-of-johnson-johnson-vaccine-over-blood-clot-concerns?t=1618331182810

Oops missed Easterlssland post before mine, so a pause across the board rather than just not shipping outside of US.

If J&J put age restrictions/guidance in place following their investigation will this put additional strain on Pfizer and Moderna?