EU threaten to cut off vaccine supply to the UK 3

[EasterIssland]

Thread 2 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4200959-EU-threaten-to-cut-off-vaccine-supply-to-the-UK-2?pg=1

Tracing is incredibly hard.

Imagine the early people off planes on public transport.

Tracers got a very hard time but I bet if you listened to the stories of how hard it is to track people down many would find it tough.

Plus it’s very easy for people to avoid being traced.

All this stuff has gone down like lead balloons on here you couldn’t even discuss it.

I hope you’re not placing too much faith in LF tests as they only pick up about 50% of positives and that’s when administered by hcps. They are not for telling individuals they haven’t got Covid but for hopefully picking up some positives in large scale testing. It’s very clear in the instructions that negative doesn’t mean you aren’t infected.

I too hope we’ll be reimbursed our investment in eu labs and for vaccines seized in light of recent events. We’re being very dove like so far. Could do with some investigative journalists adding up the financial costs and looking into what is being done with ’seized’ vaccines and its legality

Dh and I having PCR tests on couriers. Don't ask! Kids having LF tests. We are now vaccinated with first dose. So looking better than we were last year when we were all ill and couldn't get a test for love nor money! :)

Yes first dose here too (group 6). My mum has had her second and my dad’s is coming up soon thankfully. We’ve had one student at school get a positive and isolated contacts about 10 days before the holidays and I’m crossing everything it was a one off and we can keep teaching without the Hokey Cokey starting up again.

I have to do 2 lft a week. Ds has elected not to do them. He’s 14 and it’s his body and they’re hugely ineffective anyway so I’m not forcing. If outbreaks start I will.

I have a lot invested in being able to fly this summer

The UK have found a link between AZ and blood clots but it is incredibly rare, out of 17 million, there were 30 people affected so far. I am still very grateful I have AZ vaccine and will have my 2nd one.

www.politico.eu/article/uk-regulator-flags-blood-clots-linked-to-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine/

[quote Baileysforchristmas]The UK have found a link between AZ and blood clots but it is incredibly rare, out of 17 million, there were 30 people affected so far. I am still very grateful I have AZ vaccine and will have my 2nd one.

www.politico.eu/article/uk-regulator-flags-blood-clots-linked-to-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine/[/quote]
Officials in the UK said there was insufficient evidence at the moment to make any changes to the vaccination policy. Even if a causal link were established, some UK-based experts said it would still make sense to continue with vaccinations as the blood clot incidents appeared to be extremely rare.

@sashagabadon

Agree re. Testing. That is great now. Schools, hospitals, the lorry drivers etc and that is Dido Harding’s team ( and Dominic Cummings with his “moonshot”) but some media are still determined to create the impression T and T has failed. Not in my opinion it hasn’t and I’m a testing expert now having used the system from its inception back in May. Tracing is the hard part but many country struggles with that when numbers are high. That’s the price to pay for a less obtrusive system and I’m happy with that.

That's the thing, isn't it? Test and trace can only be effective when numbers are low. Once you've lost control, that's it.

@MarshaBradyo

Tracing is incredibly hard.

Imagine the early people off planes on public transport.

Tracers got a very hard time but I bet if you listened to the stories of how hard it is to track people down many would find it tough.

Plus it’s very easy for people to avoid being traced.

All this stuff has gone down like lead balloons on here you couldn’t even discuss it.

Indeed. As always, those who comply, and give correct details, are the easy ones. I did see a breakdown of false information supplied, and it was a very disappointingly high number, can't find it now.... grrrr... but that's the system the west decided upon. The original track app was amazing, linked to your NHS record etc etc, but that proved unpopular, so the track app was effectively useless in the end. Don't hear anything about that any more do we?

The original app didn't work I thought?

It's getting a bit biased on here now. There were also tons of infected people never contacted, there were track and trace people saying they had no work to do for days at a time. The system did not work well to be fair. Yes there were problems on the user end too but it was a pretty abysmal effort early on.

@TheHoneyBadger

The original app didn't work I thought?

It's getting a bit biased on here now. There were also tons of infected people never contacted, there were track and trace people saying they had no work to do for days at a time. The system did not work well to be fair. Yes there were problems on the user end too but it was a pretty abysmal effort early on.

Where was the break down?

I can’t remember about the app

The original app did work but was not compatible with older iPhones and some other types of phones so I guess you could say it didn’t work as it should do.
I think there was then a realisation that the app was never going to be the answer as first hoped. I have the app and have it switched on a lot but turn it off a lot too and I am a generally law abiding citizen so if even I try and get round the system at times (and quickly worked out how to do so) then it’s not going to work in practice really. But it’s part of the solution I suppose and does contain useful info generally so I do look at it sometimes.
Tracing was never really going to work with large numbers. It’s a v difficult thing to do. I am happy with the balance of fairly ineffective tracing but good testing.

I remember stories about tracers sitting around but can’t remember what the actual issue was

I don’t think they were reliant on the app? Or maybe they were

I do recall hearing a radio piece from real tracers and it sounded so different to narrative at the time

So the EU will get 30 million doses from AZ by the end of March, I wonder how many are from the Halix depot? I reckon 20 million.

www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN2BN1LT

30 mil? about the same as what was in the fill and finish warehouse in italy then.

[quote Baileysforchristmas]So the EU will get 30 million doses from AZ by the end of March, I wonder how many are from the Halix depot? I reckon 20 million.

www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN2BN1LT[/quote]
You certainly reckon that wrong because you are (deliberately?) misreading/misquoting the article.

It doesn't say that AZ will deliver 30 additional million doses this week. It says that the total deliveries from AZ from the approval in January till the end of March add up to 30 million (29,8 million to be exact) - which is even below the 31 million projected before the discussions about export bans began in January, so the the EU can't have "stolen" that many vaccines.

While AZ stayed far below their commitments, they delivered more than 10 millions by last week (which is when the Halix plant was finally approved), so the proportion that actually comes from Halix can't be that high.

Test and Trace has got so much better though...... they did manage to track down the errant Brazilian variant candidate from incomplete data. Just think how much easier that would have been if we had gone with the original NHSX Track App, that was the one that was linked to your NHS data, so you could have been properly "tracked". In hindsight, that would also have allowed for covid status, and vaccination status, and done away with the need for vaccine passports, as it would all have been in one place. Privacy wins though, and perhaps that is right after all.

This article says whats in Belgium and Netherlands more or less covers what eu is owed and think that might be what was promised by az by end quarter1 was 30million doses.
So what's being said is the only way az can fulfil their commitments to eu is give them other countries vaccines.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/14522815/eu-chief-warns-britain-zero-astrazeneca-jabs/

We now start quarter 2

Just checked 30.1 million to eu by end of march.
An additional 20million by end of April

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-astrazeneca-idUSKBN2B402Y

All from 2 eu sites?
Nothing from uk? They got no chance.
Nothing from serum institute although eu only a few days ago asked serum institute for 10million.

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-eu-exclusive-idUSKBN2BO5H4

Ifs really confusing as think eu ordered initially 300million.
This article says they receiving less than 90million in quarter 2 ie by end of June.
But that would be mean the 2 eu factories would have to produce double what they been producing in quarter 1 or end if 2020.
We don't know how much Belgium produced or how much halix produced.
I'm sure a bulk for some reason 9million in my head of 1st quarter as vaccines to Europe came from the serum institute.

The numbers just don't add up they way off.
No idea how much 2 uk sites actually produce think 1 previous article said 2million not sure if that's per week.
We very secretive over vaccine numbers produced and back stocks in uk all we know is how many are vaccinated .

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-astrazeneca-exc/exclusive-astrazeneca-to-miss-second-quarter-eu-vaccine-supply-target-by-half-eu-official-idUKKBN2AN1ZY

Yes extra 9million and it was said they came from India.
But has the EMA even authorised the serum institute?
I thought they could only come from authorised factories

www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-eu-b1795558.html%3famp

But biggest worry is if india don't sent us 5million vaccines.
Eu blocks anything from halix
Won't the UK run out of az.
Or are we expecting enough moderna/ Johnson and Johnson and novavax ready in time so doesn't delay every adult over 18 being vaccinated by July 31st.

All of that seems to make Johnson's decision not to be transparent about the numbers we have, and to warn Sturgeon against her cheerful intention of telling the EU the details, make more sense!

[quote FourTeaFallOut]*Well, Gin is 40% alcohol! 68% needed to make an anti viral 'wash, so not difficult.

They didn't make medical grade ones*.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196716/sipsmith-help-imperial-supply-hand-sanitiser/[/quote]
Not the handsanitizer but the car makers making masks.

@jasjas1979 - of course they did e.g.
media.astonmartin.com/aston-martin-providing-ppe-to-frontline-nhs-workers/
www.independent.co.uk/sport/motor-racing/formula1/coronavirus-mclaren-f1-nhs-doctor-equipment-covid-19-formula-1-a9438526.html

We will never know, all I know is we are still vaccinating 500k people a day, so hopefully we are ok. Good news is my parents had their 2nd jab today of Pfizer, I am very relieved and extremely grateful.

Sorry correction eu ordered 400million az doses in total.
Uk ordered 100million.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/56483766

The BBC article says nearly all will come from uk except 10million which comes from India which im sure wasn't original plan.
India delivered 5 out of 10million.
Could that 10million figure be what was due from EU sites
UDVL claimed eu sent uk 21 million vaccines but 20 was pfizer so only 1 million az from Europe unsure if from Netherlands or Belgium.
So including the 5million India sent and 1 million EU sent we maybe short by 4million.
We assuming by July the 2 az uk sites would have produced a minimum of 90million doses I don't know when they first started manufacturing and the UK sites had problems with yeild within first 3months.

Uk has a penalty clause in AZ contract if we short.

Given that theAZ CEO is back I would have really liked to see some public statements from him given what's gone on the last week.

Its looking like pfizer are on course to deliver all 40million doses by end of quarter 2 but thats 20million people if 2doses.

Moderna we ordered 17million and we only meant be getting small delivery in April.

No idea true time line of Johnson and Johnson 1 jab or norovax some speculate could be may or June.

[quote MRex]@jasjas1979 - of course they did e.g.
media.astonmartin.com/aston-martin-providing-ppe-to-frontline-nhs-workers/
www.independent.co.uk/sport/motor-racing/formula1/coronavirus-mclaren-f1-nhs-doctor-equipment-covid-19-formula-1-a9438526.html[/quote]
Did any reach the front line in anything more than trials? was it in wide spread use or PR ?

My 2nd cousin is a IC consultant, she said they trialed some novel PPE and never heard anything more about it.

I kno there was a big fanfare about PPE and ventilators but the fact remains is it didn't work.

@Baileysforchristmas

We will never know, all I know is we are still vaccinating 500k people a day, so hopefully we are ok. Good news is my parents had their 2nd jab today of Pfizer, I am very relieved and extremely grateful.

Brilliant :) must be a huge relief for you all.

The UK are nearly up to 60% first doses and 9.4% second doses so still on track, we’ll see what happens in the next couple of weeks .