Canada pauses AZ vaccines for under 55s (and says women most at risk)

[Boringlynormal]

Please tell me this isn’t something to worry about: www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/30/canada-suspends-use-of-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-for-those-under-55

Speaking as a woman in her 30s who was immunised 4 days ago (article tells us the risk is for young women 4 - 20 days after vaccination), I’m panicking now. Yes I know it’s rare but so is dying of Covid in my age group so I’m wondering if I’ve made a huge mistake.

By the way I’m very pro vaccine and leapt on the chance to get one. I’m just feeling so anxious now.

Cambridge University tracking the Covid outbreak say the risk of dying of Covid for 25 to 44-year-olds is 0.04 per cent - 40 times higher than even Germany's incidence of CVST.

The Netherlands has paused AZ vaccination in the under 60s.
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-netherlands-europe-b1826127.html

[quote lonelyplanet]The Netherlands has paused AZ vaccination in the under 60s.
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-netherlands-europe-b1826127.html[/quote]
Another, and our agency just found a load of reactions after saying non for a week. People can trot out statistics all day, gov are pulling it for certain ages only, why. Historically countries on the whole cover up vaccine scandals/risks not expose them.

They put out a call for Drs to report reactions and then they did.
All the yellow card reports are published and easily accessible
There is no cover up.

They did not say there were none
Last week they knew of 5 cases
This week after much increased publicity they know of 30

In the context of 17million vaccinations.

Hasn't Covid also been linked to these clots?

Definitely more than 30 people under 55 have died from Covid and lots of others are suffering from long covid. I think there's more risk in not having the vaccine.

Why hasn't the contraceptive pill been stopped, if there's such concern about clots?

@Tealightsandd

Hasn't Covid also been linked to these clots?

Definitely more than 30 people under 55 have died from Covid and lots of others are suffering from long covid. I think there's more risk in not having the vaccine.

Why hasn't the contraceptive pill been stopped, if there's such concern about clots?

You are right that the risk from covid is much higher for most people.

The contraceptive pill is not the same thing. Anyone given it will have the risks explained and assessed by a medical practitioner before they are prescribed it. They also have regular health check ups and their blood pressure is monitored.

So: chance of dying of covid 1 in 1000 for younger people.

Chance of getting long covid 1 in 66 (and actually greater than that as that is based on 1 million in the UK and the UK population is around 66 million and not everyone has had covid).

Change of getting life-threatening blood clot after vaccine: 1 in 600,000.

Hmmmmmm.

And yes covid has been linked to these clots.

@lonelyplanet Exactly not everyone is prescribed the contraceptive pill. I was assessed by a doctor and they wouldn’t prescribe it due to the type of migraines I get.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Cambridge University tracking the Covid outbreak say the risk of dying of Covid for 25 to 44-year-olds is 0.04 per cent - 40 times higher than even Germany's incidence of CVST.

My personalised risk of dying from covid according to this: qcovid.org is 0.0009%. Probably as no risk factors and healthy BMI.

According to EMA figures, the risk for under 60s of a CVST following AZ vaccine is 1/100000 = 0.001%.

Therefore my risk of dying from the vaccine is 11% higher than of covid itself.

I am really stressed about this as I really want the vaccine. I know the risk of long covid is higher and I really, really don't want long covid but I'd take that over death!

@idril

1. That risk calculator includes the current low risk of catching covid, not the risk (certainty) of coming into contact with covid at some point when the world is open again, better to look at the death rates by age.
2. Those EMA figures are much higher than UK figures of 30 from 18 million.
3. Your calculations assume they all died, but only a few actually died, it's treatable and there is a treatment protocol at least in the UK (including that it's unwise to use heparin as there's evidence of significant numbers of affected people who are also susceptible to heparin-induced thrombocytopenia). In Germany 40% died, in the UK it looks like 13% died (though I'm only getting that from looking up the deaths in the MHRA yellow card report not news, and some of those cases might have been proven to have other causes making the death rate lower).

If you have known issues with heparin, then caution seems wise at the moment. Otherwise you might want to recalculate.

If you want to compare like with like, you might need to compare the risk of clotting with the vaccine with the risk of clogging from getting covid, not just your risk of dying from it. Not all of the people who are admitted to hospital with severe Covid will die from the clotting issues or the pneumonia. Similarly there are cases of clotting problems in people who wouldn’t otherwise have been admitted to hospital and in long coviders. I’m not completely convinced we’ve properly got to the bottom of all the clotting risks with Covid infections yet. There’s still a lot we don’t know about long term effects.

If the risk of Covid is so clearly higher than the risk of the jab why have so many countries banned it for my age group now?

That’s not a stroppy question - I really want to know. The perception is that it’s not safe enough for someone my age.

@Boringlynormal

If the risk of Covid is so clearly higher than the risk of the jab why have so many countries banned it for my age group now?

90% if it is about perception, because people can see someone who gets ill after a vaccine, but not the thousands the vaccine programme neglected to save by delaying jabs.

Another question (sorry). Are the 30 ‘new’ cases of this type of blood clot spanning the whole time since jabbing began or are they since the first five were announced so relatively recently? Which would seem to indicate it’s increasing as the age being jabbed decreases? And how do we find out how old and what sex they were?

@MRex thank you for the informative statistical post. As a female in my 30s who is 6 days post vaccination that’s exactly what I needed to read. Do you have a link to the recently announced U.K. cases and details of ages and fatalities? I already struggle with health anxiety and was extremely nervous about having the vaccination so I’m trying to calm my nerves with rational facts.

Also has anyone seen any information regarding the timeframe during which you are likely to have this side effect? I’d read 4 to 20 days earlier this week but more information seems to be coming out all the time. Trying to work out when I’ll be in the clear.

@Boringlynormal I haven’t seen anything myself re the new cases but I saw someone else say that they thought they’d been flagged as vaccination reactions as there has been more publicity regarding this. I guess without the publicity the two things may not have been linked and reported so not necessarily new cases. I’m in the same position as you so I’m also keen to see the data re the newly reported cases.

@Rainbowsandstorms I read 4 - 20 but then I’ve also read 14 days in a few places since then.

@Rainbowsandstorms Hope you’re doing ok. I have times where I feel ok and am able to put it in context of so many others having it and being fine and moments where I’m in a blind panic.

Just a theory.

A lot of those countries are still mostly vaccinating their 60+ or 70+ year olds and have limited and unreliable supplies of AZ anyway. They may be able to switch to using their Pfizer for the under 55s that they are vaccinating e.g, HCPs, teachers etc and just use the AZ they do have as part of the rollout for older groups without affecting their roll out at all. So the risk/benefit calculation is a bit different for them. Especially if people start avoiding the AZ vaccine because of publicity. By the time it might be an issue for them there will be more data.

In the U.K. our risk benefit is a bit different because we’ve given the over 50s who want it a jab already and are about to start on under 50s. And I think the majority of our stock is AZ. So changing course in the same way would have a big effect on our vaccine roll out, which would be riskier than people just having the vaccine because people that would be partially or fully vaccinated are now not.

@Boringlynormal that’s what I’d seen too. The data released on the first 9 German cases the latest onset of symptoms recorded was 16 days. Roll on being 20 days post vaccination.

[quote MRex]@idril

1. That risk calculator includes the current low risk of catching covid, not the risk (certainty) of coming into contact with covid at some point when the world is open again, better to look at the death rates by age.
2. Those EMA figures are much higher than UK figures of 30 from 18 million.
3. Your calculations assume they all died, but only a few actually died, it's treatable and there is a treatment protocol at least in the UK (including that it's unwise to use heparin as there's evidence of significant numbers of affected people who are also susceptible to heparin-induced thrombocytopenia). In Germany 40% died, in the UK it looks like 13% died (though I'm only getting that from looking up the deaths in the MHRA yellow card report not news, and some of those cases might have been proven to have other causes making the death rate lower).

If you have known issues with heparin, then caution seems wise at the moment. Otherwise you might want to recalculate.[/quote]
Thanks @MRex.

I didn't realise qcovid was from catching and dying so that is reassuring.

I still think my personal risk would be lower than average but you are right that it will be more accurate than risk of catching and dying.

I would still like to see a bit more data but I reckon I have at least a couple more weeks before I get called (age 44) so hopefully more info will be available.

CVSTs seem also to be connected with the contraceptive pill backed up by various research? I wonder if the risk increases with a vaccine?

A few documents showing this link
core.ac.uk/download/pdf/82873285.pdf

thrombosisuk.org/yourvoice/post.php?s=2020-09-01-after-an-initially-diagnosis-of-a-virus-when-cheryl-collapsed-and-was-rushed-to-hospital-she-was-shocked-to-discover-she-had-developed-a-blood-clot-on-the-brain-cvst