26.8 million people vaccinated thread started 20th March

[Bordois]

So with the release of figures as of Friday 19th March over half the adult population of the UK have had at least 1 vaccination.

The number of jabs given is March was phenomenal and its likely numbers will be lower for the next few weeks but even if its "only" 100-200k a day thats still more lives potentially being saved!

ENG 68.3%
NI 62.5%
WAL 61.0%
SCOT 57.8%

Thank you everyone who updates this thread, i love a nice positive thread.

I forgot to mention when I had my jab two weeks ago they gave me 3 stickers - 2 for my dc. Do I win the thread?

I forgot to mention when I had my jab two weeks ago they gave me 3 stickers - 2 for my dc. Do I win the thread?

I'm jealous.

(I'm not really. Maybe it will encourage your DC to have the jab if and when it's offered to them, if they see Mum being positive and smiley about it.)

50% 1st doses and 20% second. Two milestones hit in the same day.

The 7-day moving average continues to creep slowly up, now at 517,917 doses per day. Supply is very un-lumpy now, instead of start-stop driving cruise control has been engaged.

Any ideas how long in theory it would take to fully vaccinate every one at this rate? I'm well shit at maths 🤣

Mum we need you. It is a maths question ❤

There you go Bordois.

Oh or DdriagGoch of course❤

They are normally the maths brains of this thread

Well for 140 doses per 100 people (so all willing adults fully vaccinated), the covidvax.live tracker reckons that we'll manage it by the end of July.

Just in time to start the autumn booster program!

Thanks Ddraig!

Latest ONS survey estimates 70% of adults have antibodies.

Fantastic!!!

According to the blue blocky squares 25% of over 18s have had 2 doses....and my second dose is on Friday.
And 64% have had at least 1 dose.
These figures are staggering.

70% Marvellous

@yellowspanner

According to the blue blocky squares 25% of over 18s have had 2 doses....and my second dose is on Friday. And 64% have had at least 1 dose. These figures are staggering.

My husband is having his second on Friday too. So he will be joining you in the results ❤

@Bordois

Any ideas how long in theory it would take to fully vaccinate every one at this rate? I'm well shit at maths 🤣

Very crudely, we are doing about 1% of the adult population per day (split over first and second doses).

74% of the adult population still need their second dose.
35% of the adult population also need their first dose.

So 110 days total to go, assuming vaccine supply stays as is. Approx three and a half months?

It will be quicker than that because not everyone will chose to have the vaccine, and because supply should increase.

Approx three and a half months?

That will allow all the lovely vaccinating people to have a few weeks off before they start on the Autumn boosters, then

Motorina, my maths is rubbish I'm the first to admit. But if it will take approx 3½ months to fully vaccinate everyone, then everyone should get their first dose in the next 2 - 3 weeks. And that seems highly unlikely.

Have I gone wrong somewhere?

Assuming 1% vaccinated per day.
74% of the adult population still need their second dose - 74 days
35% of the adult population also need their first dose and second doses - total 70 days

So for all adults to be fully vaccinated will take approximately 144 days, nearly 5 months.

But still ahead of target, which was first doses for all by 31 July.

@Imfedupwithallofthis - no, that’s already factored in. 74% of the adult population need their second dose. 35% need their first dose, too.

But, yes, I’m assuming we roll out second doses as fast as capacity allows. The reason we increased the gap from 3 weeks to 12 weeks was to prioritise first jabs. Once everyone’s had a first jab, the last few age cohorts (who won’t be having AZ) could have their second at 3 weeks? That would speed completion significantly.

@Motorina

I'm with you now. As I said, my maths isn't brilliant! Used to be fairly good, this past year appears to have turned my brain into mush.

And if they introduce J&J, those people won't need a 2nd dose. Although I'm not sure where we stand on that one.

Thanks for the number crunching, looks like most think July. 😊

Once everyone’s had a first jab, the last few age cohorts (who won’t be having AZ) could have their second at 3 weeks? That would speed completion significantly.

You see, I’m suspicious on the Pfizer 3 week interval. I think the reason it is 3 weeks is because they wanted to get it out ASAP (a good thing in the midst of the pandemic), but they knew from past experience that there was no point giving the booster before the immune system had had a chance to respond to the first dose, and 3 weeks was about enough time.

In fact, 3 weeks was the minimum time, and is the only time that Pfizer tested. That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be even better with a longer gap, as we now know the AZ is.

Drums please.... nearly 600k!!
597,025 new vaccinations registered in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 103,352 1st doses / 394,152 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 6,832 / 41,682
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 16,023 / 17,218
NI 7,933 / 9,833

this thread has got good graphs
twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1387761829963833352/photo/2