3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

[Laytwir024]

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

European countries are suffering from the Kent variant which started in the uk

Correction: which was first detected in the UK. We don’t know for certain where it started - and considering Kent is a major port it could very well have come from the continent.

Don’t forget, the uk has vaccinated lots but 1st dose only. Most Eu countries have vaccinated less people but those have had both doses already.

Also, schools went back here in January so rates might be up, but schools have been in for at least 2 months full time, so the numbers will be higher

@QuentinInQuarantino

From what I can work out, most EU countries have given a first dose to around 10% of the population. People pick on France but it's progress is pretty average.

The UK is on 26million first doses / population 67million so around 35%?

It's not terrible! Comparatively slower of course but i had assumed it would be in the low single figures based on the way people have been talking. I'm listening to LBC live and he's talking in hyperbole about how France is killing its people with the slow rollout, and I've been told on MN that (as a resident of Spain) I am felt sorry for.

I'm having my AZ next week and am optimistic for the (at least late) summer!

The issue with French vaccinations isn't so much how many they've done so far, is how few say they want the vaccine, up from 25% but still only just over 40%. My friend's MIL is French and in early 70s, none of her friends want any vaccine. Criticism of AZ hasn't helped, but they didn't want it before and they don't want it now; so how can this end for France? Contrast that to Spain, who've gone up to about 80% wanting the vaccine now (from 60% or 70%, I'll link it). www.imperial.ac.uk/news/216493/covid-19-vaccine-confidence-growing-global-survey/ Bottom of this page is a more recent poll on who wants vaccination (give the page a little loading time) and France only got to 42%: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations. You can look up the Imperial dataset of questions for per country charts on vaccination, but it isn't very user friendly.

Most Eu countries have vaccinated less people but those have had both doses already.

@Caspianberg Most? Surely you mean “all”? Also, the AZ vaccine is more effective with a longer gap between doses. Far better to give as many people as possible the first dose than a much smaller number of people both doses.

@Caspianberg oh, and according to El Pais, 1.7 million people in Spain have had two doses of vaccine as of three days ago. In the UK it’s 2 million.

As of March 17th, 3.6% of the EU population had received both doses. The figure for the UK is 2.8%, and closing rapidly on the EU - if the current trends continue it is realistic that the UK will draw level on second doses administered at or shortly after Easter.

In the UK 37.9% of the population have received at least one dose and so have good protection; the figure in the EU is 8.6%.

There are significant variations across different EU member states, of course. But clearly the vulnerable populations in the EU are very much less protected than they would be in the UK.

@Caspianberg

Don’t forget, the uk has vaccinated lots but 1st dose only. Most Eu countries have vaccinated less people but those have had both doses already.

Also, schools went back here in January so rates might be up, but schools have been in for at least 2 months full time, so the numbers will be higher

Ursula, is that you? EU countries have currently given a very slightly larger percentage of population 2 doses, but in 2 weeks the UK will overtake most of them as the UK's January vaccinated start to get second doses. UK is only 2m, but France 2.3m and Germany 3.1m; those numbers are very close together. The total number of doses given in the EU is very low for its size and resources, and it's a shame people want to let the EC off the hook for its mistakes.

(Sorry - all figures in my post above our from ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)

@Motorina - ha! Cross-post. We are actually vaccinating at 11 weeks rather than 12, so it will be before Easter.

@Mrex - I suspect you're right. I was calculating it on the gap continuing to close at the same pace as in the past few days. Whereas the reality is our second-dose rate is escalating fast, so the gap will close even sooner.

(I have dose two booked for Monday night. Wish me luck!)

We are about to hit a period of second dose aren’t we.

That it’s lowish is due to the gap. It’ll get a lot higher after next month.

covidvax.live/

@Motorina - yeay! It makes me happy to hear each one still as they come. My parents, PIL and my aunt are all due second doses soon too, they were in the big mid-January batch.

@mrex that's worrying, but opinions fluctuate and I wouldn't be surprised if, down the line when it's clearer that the vaccines work, confidence in them grows. On mumsnet too there have been plenty of people worried about it. I'm very pro vaccine but will admit to being a bit concerned after a young Spanish teacher died last week post-AZ jab, and I expect a lot of people would have expressed doubt after that. Yesterday they autopsy revealed she was biologically prone to clots, and I feel much happier about my jab next week as do my colleagues.

I don't know much at all about France and French culture so can't comment much, but don't we only need a certain percentage to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity? Maybe that's the endgame in France. Many countries border France, not just the UK, so they may face political pressure too. Who knows.

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]covidvax.live/[/quote]
The rate of progress table is new, very interesting, saying when each country will reach 70% with 2 doses based on the current trajectory. Of course so many things change around vaccine yields and supply daily, but it seems to me that that's the date leaders should be focused on.

Yeah, we are at 2.8% of the population with a double dose and that will ramp up significantly as the 12 week marks rolls around with increasing numbers. France is something like 3.4%, Germany and Sweden 3.7, Spain is at 4% for comparison.

So much optimism, pubs and clubs haven't opened yet, of course it will come crashing down again.
Look at how many ppl who are,
'sensibly rule breaking' because they are bored and fed up with it all.

of course it will come crashing down again.

Yup, we’re all doooooomed.

Sadly.

@QuentinInQuarantino - 70% vaccinated with the 85% expected vaccine efficacy is a decent target. We don't really know the ultimate real life efficacy and transmission stats once vaccines reach more younger people (both should improve), we don't know the effects of new variants, nor do we know if or when children can be vaccinated to help increase the vaccinated percentage... So the models have as many assumptions as Swiss cheese has holes. Clearly below 50% vaccinated is going to be incredibly unlikely to give much transmission or hospitalisation impact.

@Caspianberg

Don’t forget, the uk has vaccinated lots but 1st dose only. Most Eu countries have vaccinated less people but those have had both doses already.

Also, schools went back here in January so rates might be up, but schools have been in for at least 2 months full time, so the numbers will be higher

How can we forget it when so many keep using the term 'partially vaccinated' and ignore the logic/ science behind the different tactics?

I have a feeling our third wave will be a gradual swell that will soon grow. We should start seeing a reversal or plateau of the current downward trend in the next two weeks or so now schools are back in business.

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that the numbers will start increasing rapidly now our schools are filled again. April 12th for retail is going to be a headache because the numbers will be on their way up and we’ll be back to mixing in stores more widely.

Summer holidays abroad for us may be difficult because we will be at the stage Europe is at within 8-9 weeks, no country is going to want to take the risk of allowing us in when our numbers will be so high once again.

Depending how quickly the variants cause an uptick in numbers will certainly affect our roadmap out of lockdown so it’s all a waiting game. Yes our vaccine efforts are great but we are yet to see how the vaccinated will hold out in the midst of another wave and what impact they will have on the spread of the virus.

Cases are down almost ten percent this week while the kids are back at school.

Summer holidays abroad for us may be difficult because we will be at the stage Europe is at within 8-9 weeks, no country is going to want to take the risk of allowing us in when our numbers will be so high once again.

Really? Commentary now is that travel is unlikely due to variants. Not this.

Thanks @QuentinInQuarantino - let’s hope she doesn’t have to wait too much longer!