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3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

333 replies

Laytwir024 · 19/03/2021 19:56

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

OP posts:
MmeLaraque · 21/03/2021 10:45

[quote donewithitalltodayandxmas]@MmeLaraque your dr can't say all of that with 100% confidence as some of its not fully known
Its not 100% anything but even one dose is considered to give some protection and there is some evidence that it helps with transmission possibly , but this is all still being reviewed .also low uptake ? Maybe in certain areas but all in all pretty sure the uptake isn't low so where is your dr getting this all from as a lot of what they have stated isn't fully known yet [/quote]
Well, he did say that. The fact is that some people seem to think that all the vulnerable have been vaccinated, and that simply isn't true.

FWIW, I had my first jab yesterday, and feel like I've been steamrollered. Aching, and shattered.

The low uptake is apparently amongst the middle-aged. We're the ones asking the questions, apparently, and some are just not taking the vaccine.

I have no idea where he's getting his information from, but he's the one who the medical degree, not me, so...

MmeLaraque · 21/03/2021 13:52

@MrsFezziwig

Spain letting them in from a hotspot, is another matter.

That is what I was referring to, in response to the poster who said no-one would want to let us in.

I was chatting with some Breton friends yesterday, and they're furious that so many Parisians have de-camped out to second homes in Brittany just as Paris locks down again.

I'd agree that those who don't want fellow country people travelling around from hotspots aren't going to want peeps from a hotspot like the UK is.

FourTeaFallOut · 21/03/2021 14:47

aren't going to want peeps from a hotspot like the UK is

www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Here is the covid rate per country across europe.

MarshaBradyo · 21/03/2021 14:55

aren't going to want peeps from a hotspot like the UK is.

This comment is out of date and incorrect, even better that table in next post shows lower than I thought

Thewiseoneincognito · 21/03/2021 14:58

@XingMing

Do none of you lot read the serious papers, or do you rely on Facebook? The vaccines we are using in the UK are working big time. The main variant across Europe is the Kent version we identified in late Nov/December. The AZ vaccine appears to be effective against the Brazilian variant. Look at the UK statistics. Since December when DM86 had her first jab and mid-Jan when she had the second, the UK has vaccinated almost everyone over 55 who has accepted immunisation, and infection rates and death rates have plummeted. Now call up the same set of stats for France, Germany and Italy... and compare the two side by side. It should tell you what you need to know, factually and numerically, and it's pretty conclusive evidence.

I'm no immunologist, and know FA about virus mutation, but a population that is almost 50% (and rising) vaccinated is much better placed to fight off the fourth/fifth and further waves. Just take the vaccine when you are called for it. Herd immunity works and protects the people who are too weak as well by limiting the transmission vectors.

So the death rates and infections have dropped just like they did in the first lockdown- because of lockdown and school closures and vaccine efficacy against the strains we know it can defend against.

The AZ vaccine is not effective against the B1351 South Africa variant and has low success against the P1 Brazilian variant. I’d say We are still a long way from claiming the vaccines are working big time.

Also you should look into the issues with a partially vaccinated population and a mutating virus and see what you figure out. You’re on the right path you just haven’t reached the conclusion yet.

MRex · 21/03/2021 15:13

you should look into the issues with a partially vaccinated population and a mutating virus
Ah, you've read Paul Bieniasz and nobody else. Oxford AZ gives 75% immunity between 22 and 90 days. That's a decent response for any vaccine and doesn't put it into that territory.

MRex · 21/03/2021 15:13

Sorry, typo, should say 76%.

MmeLaraque · 21/03/2021 17:31

@TableFlowerss

**My jab is due today. The big hoo-ha is this:

Just over 26 million people have had their first vaccination dose. Only 2 million have had their second dose. 67.8 million people in the UK.

The vaccine doesn't prevent people from contracting or spreading covid, it just means that if one does contract it, hopefully, one won't die from it.

That's not my opinion, that's exactly what my GP told me yesterday, after they expressed concerns that there's not enough uptake of the vaccine. So there you have it. The big hoo-ha is because only a small fraction of the population is fully vaccinated, and the vaccine doesn't prevent anyone from contracting or spreading it anyway**

@MmeLaraque

They may not be fully protected but they are still significantly more protected than without the vaccine. And I’m not suggesting we open up tomorrow, but once the vulnerable have had their second jab then that’s it.

We know it’s not 100% effective but it’s much much much better than having no vaccine at all. It might not prevent it from spreading but it’s likely to prevent many many deaths and hospitalisations, which was always the whole point.

Like anything, people will still die despite the vaccines, but not in the numbers we’ve seen previously. The most vulnerable are vaccinated so that’s the priority.

Regarding the slow up take, well tough. If people are choosing not to take if for whatever reason A- it’s their choice but B- and more importantly, it shouldn’t impact on the rest of society, the young healthy people that it won’t affect, in getting back to normal. Yes we know there will be some that will, in the same way some did of the flu each year unexpectedly

So

The most vulnerable are vaccinated so that’s the priority. Not yet, they're not. It'll be at least June before *all of the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated.

Like anything, people will still die despite the vaccines, but not in the numbers we’ve seen previously. Please clarify that "anything". Apart from the 1919 flu pandemic that killed millions. This isn't "like anything". You also seem to have a very cavalier attitude towards other people's lives. Provided it's not *you, eh?

Azuretwist · 21/03/2021 18:22

However, as the NHS aware in the first group to be vaccinated, hopefully if there is another wave the NHS will not be overwhelmed as staff had 2 doses at least.

Azuretwist · 21/03/2021 18:23

*were

bumbleymummy · 21/03/2021 18:31

@Azuretwist very true. Part of the problem with the nhs being overwhelmed was staff shortages due to isolating/illness.

Azuretwist · 21/03/2021 18:35

Schools may still close, as many staff under 40 will not get their first dose until May, some nearer July, some not get second until autumn, so that may mean some nhs staff off due to childcare - or some schools close due to staff shortages. However, I would hope nhs staff can still be in hospitals so patients can be treated.

EileenGC · 21/03/2021 18:57

@FourTeaFallOut

aren't going to want peeps from a hotspot like the UK is

www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Here is the covid rate per country across europe.

Spain is definitely accepting tourists. That doesn’t help Sarah from Bristol who wants to go to Malaga with her family, because (at the moment) they would all need countless tests and to self isolate when coming back to the UK. Going on holiday will mostly depend on one’s home country’s rules. No point going to Spain, which is completely allowed, if for a family of four you end up spending £1.5k on tests coming back.

When the UK reaches a 50/100k capita incidence - which should be soon! - many more countries will open their borders to them. The issue is coming back, and that depends on the UK government, regardless of where other countries are placing on the table. Spikes and variants will cause the numbers to fluctuate a lot over the next few months.

MarshaBradyo · 21/03/2021 19:03

Spain is definitely accepting tourists. That doesn’t help Sarah from Bristol who wants to go to Malaga with her family, because (at the moment) they would all need countless tests and to self isolate when coming back to the UK.

It’s not just cost it’s illegal atm if non essential

QuentinInQuarantino · 21/03/2021 20:14

No arrivals from Britain allowed into Spain (unless Spanish nationals or residents) until at least March 30th anyway.

However it is true that the Germans can visit Spain at Easter while the Spanish can't leave their areas.Angry

EileenGC · 21/03/2021 20:21

@QuentinInQuarantino

No arrivals from Britain allowed into Spain (unless Spanish nationals or residents) until at least March 30th anyway.

However it is true that the Germans can visit Spain at Easter while the Spanish can't leave their areas.Angry

It’s madness isn’t it. Same situation here in Germany - we can’t even travel within our area to second residences or holiday lets (they’re all closed anyway) for Easter, but somehow it’s ok to go to Mallorca! The Germans who've stayed at home aren’t happy either. They’re meeting tomorrow to decide whether they should bring quarantine and tests back for returning travellers from Balearics. Maybe that’ll stop people going on a jolly unnecessarily...
MrsFezziwig · 21/03/2021 22:19

@MmeLaraque
I'd agree that those who don't want fellow country people travelling around from hotspots aren't going to want peeps from a hotspot like the UK is.

The UK currently has 100 cases per 100k population, as opposed to France with 285 (thanks to whoever posted the table). Obviously it’s academic at the moment as non-essential foreign travel is not permitted from the UK, and we don’t know what the situation will be in a few months’ time, but it would currently be safer statistically speaking to allow English people to visit than Parisians. And more of us have been vaccinated.

CloudPop · 21/03/2021 22:23

@PinkDaffodil2

The problem is the South African variant seems pretty resistant to natural immunity, and immunity from the vaccines we’re using. If it takes root here we’ll be pushed back so far and locked down until new vaccines are available. I don’t see how this summer can go well if we relax international travel given it’s 5-10% of the cases in Europe.
@PinkDaffodil2 where do you get your information from? South Africa is almost entirely unscathed by "the South African variant". It hasn't spread at all in the UK. The 3rd wave in EU ha come from the Kent variant that poleaxed UK in November / December. I can't find any information that suggests the SA variant is having any impact at all, anywhere
BoomBoomsCousin · 21/03/2021 22:26

Like anything, people will still die despite the vaccines, but not in the numbers we’ve seen previously. Please clarify that "anything". Apart from the 1919 flu pandemic that killed millions. This isn't "like anything". You also seem to have a very cavalier attitude towards other people's lives. Provided it's not *you, eh?

I’m not TableFlowerss so this may not be her response, but the point of the vaccines is that they stop covid impacting us the way it has or the way the 1919 flu epidemic. I understand that with the vaccine, deaths are expected to be on a hundredth of the rate without. Which will put it firmly in the realm of many risks we all face and which human activity significantly contributes to.

TableFlowerss · 22/03/2021 00:00

*The most vulnerable are vaccinated so that’s the priority. Not yet, they're not. It'll be at least June before *all of the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated.

Like anything, people will still die despite the vaccines, but not in the numbers we’ve seen previously. Please clarify that "anything". Apart from the 1919 flu pandemic that killed millions. This isn't "like anything". You also seem to have a very cavalier attitude towards other people's lives. Provided it's not you, eh?*

@MmeLaraque

Take a look at what @BoomBoomsCousin said, that’s exactly right!!

People die every single day, whether it be cancer diagnoses, car crashes, heart attacks, and everything else in between. People of all ages die, tragically. They never get to see the average age of 80! Families are devastated every hour by the death of loved ones that have nothing to do with covid.

You’ve no clue what circumstances are so your beyond ridiculous ‘caviller attitude’ comment is a load a load of bollocks!!

nordica · 22/03/2021 14:38

Why is Boris Johnson now saying the 3rd wave is coming to the UK from mainland Europe? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56486067

I'm probably generally on the pessimistic side about covid news but had really thought the success of the vaccination programme and the travel restrictions would help this time? And much of the European 3rd wave seems to be the "Kent variant" we already had. Confused

kittensarecute · 22/03/2021 14:41

@nordica

Why is Boris Johnson now saying the 3rd wave is coming to the UK from mainland Europe? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56486067

I'm probably generally on the pessimistic side about covid news but had really thought the success of the vaccination programme and the travel restrictions would help this time? And much of the European 3rd wave seems to be the "Kent variant" we already had. Confused

This has really scared me, I'm so worried that he'll find a reason to extend lockdown 😢
bumbleymummy · 22/03/2021 14:43

More goalpost moving no doubt.

Beebityboo · 22/03/2021 14:44

Fucking hell I've just seen that on twitter, really worried now Sad

nordica · 22/03/2021 14:45

It's really strange because he's usually super optimistic about everything being absolutely fine (even when it's really not) so feels very uncharacteristic.

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