3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

[Laytwir024]

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

I think we will have done enough to reduce hospitalisations and deaths. The vaccination programme has been a great success, and the only aspect of the pandemic where the medical recommendations have been acted upon 100%, which may be connected I think.

What I think is uncertain is when we can travel abroad without quarantine, and I am beginning to think it may not be this summer.

@MRex

“Natural infection produces variable antibody longevity and may induce robust memory B-cell responses despite low plasma neutralizing activity.”

Do you know what that actually means?

Again you quote, and seem to rely, on 'could' when it suits you whilst strongly refuting other studies using similar language.

Yes, do you?

@bumbleymummy

Although I’m very interested to see studies that show that vaccine immunity lasts longer. The preprint I posted the other day showed that, so far, immunity after two doses of the vaccine is as good as immunity after natural infection. The fact that immunity has persisted for so long after infection has actually given scientists confidence that the vaccine should provide similar long lasting immunity. (See first link above)

I thought I'd destroyed this argument on another thread, yet here you are again pasting up the same patent nonsense.

You continue to reverse the conclusions of scientists and pretend that's justified. Studies on immunity derived from covid infections have shown that in the UK against existing strains present in the UK, the protection appears to be similar to that from a dose of a vaccine. (I have no idea where this two dose nonsense comes from.)

There is not a single epidemiologist in the world who expects immunity from covid infection to last as long as immunity from a vaccine. Nor is there anyone who expects the immunity to be as broad - something clearly seen in Manaus, where the previous immunity is almost worthless against the P1 strain.

Thanks notrub I am on my phone, it would have taken me ages to catch up with that!

And mummy I understand enough of it to know you have misunderstood something somewhere!

@notrub "I thought I'd destroyed this argument on another thread"

Did you really think that? How strange. No, as I explained to you on the other thread, you were the one who was trying to reverse their conclusions.

The 'two dose nonsense' came from the paper itself.

"Natural infection resulting in detectable anti-spike antibodies and two vaccine doses both provide robust protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, including against the B.1.1.7 variant."

oxfordbrc.nihr.ac.uk/two-doses-of-vaccine-offer-same-protection-from-covid-as-prior-infection-study-finds/

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.09.21253218v1.full-text

I'm sure there are several scientists that hope that immunity after vaccination provides longer term immunity. Very few scientists would state it as a fact though until they have the evidence to support it. Some MNers clearly don't have the same qualms.

@CuriousaboutSamphire I understand enough to know that I haven't :)

Can anyone explain why natural immunity would be better than vaccine immunity? I am no scientist but I would have thought that immunity that can be brought about by not being sick would be better?

It’s not that it’s necessarily ‘better’ - we don’t yet know if it lasts longer etc. It’s just that it is also possible to be immune without having had the vaccine, something which some people don’t seem to be aware of. For people in the higher risk groups it makes sense to gain immunity via vaccination rather than risk contracting the disease but for the vast majority of people, it’s a mild/asymptomatic illness and confers immunity after recovery.

And that is a perfect example of what I said... Rely on 'could' when it suits your purposes.

Everyone is well aware of what immunity is @bumbleymummy. What we've been trying to explain to you is transmission, how those who are infected go on to infect the most vulnerable. How do you still not understand after a year that when you catch a virus it's likely that you'll pass it on?

I've had covid twice. I have long lasting antibodies (antibody test to prove it). I'm still desperate to get the vaccine as my job involves working with many other people and the constant fear of passing it on to others is worse than having it myself.

@TableFlowerss

I don’t understand the big who harrr about a 3rd wave here, given about a third of the population have already been vaccinated. Yes they’ve not all had their second fuse but it’s still supposed to be very effective without that.

All the vulnerable have been vaccinated including the elderly, so the ones that haven’t been vaccinated, yet are never likely to die or suffer badly. So even if it was here, the ones that would catch it mainly would be the strongest in society, ie the younger, healthier people.

I’m quite perplexed as to the fuss to be honest given our circumstances.

My jab is due today. The big hoo-ha is this:

Just over 26 million people have had their first vaccination dose. Only 2 million have had their second dose. 67.8 million people in the UK.

The vaccine doesn't prevent people from contracting or spreading covid, it just means that if one does contract it, hopefully, one won't die from it.

That's not my opinion, that's exactly what my GP told me yesterday, after they expressed concerns that there's not enough uptake of the vaccine. So there you have it. The big hoo-ha is because only a small fraction of the population is fully vaccinated, and the vaccine doesn't prevent anyone from contracting or spreading it anyway.

@bumbleymummy

It’s not that it’s necessarily ‘better’ - we don’t yet know if it lasts longer etc. It’s just that it is also possible to be immune without having had the vaccine, something which some people don’t seem to be aware of. For people in the higher risk groups it makes sense to gain immunity via vaccination rather than risk contracting the disease but for the vast majority of people, it’s a mild/asymptomatic illness and confers immunity after recovery.

This vaccine doesn't confer immunity. It doesn't prevent a person from contracting or spreading CV, it just means that *hopefully, if the person does contract CV, it won't kill them. (I asked my GP about this yesterday, because I wanted to be clear about the vaccine. That's what GP said).

There are still only 2 million people "fully" vaccinated (second dose administered), for whatever *that's worth. Out of a population of 67.8 million. :(

I have had the vaccination and was told it can lessen transmission by 30%.

I think that poster misheard, didn't hear their GP say the word total or 100%.

Which we all know anyway!

"Marc Lipsitch and Rebecca Kahn, both of whom are epidemiologists at the Harvard School of Public Health, in a preprint study estimated from the same data that "one dose of vaccine reduces the potential for transmission by at least 61%, possibly considerably more.""

Lifted from www.advisory.com/en/daily-briefing/2021/03/04/vaccine-transmission

@bumbleymummy

It’s not that it’s necessarily ‘better’ - we don’t yet know if it lasts longer etc. It’s just that it is also possible to be immune without having had the vaccine, something which some people don’t seem to be aware of. For people in the higher risk groups it makes sense to gain immunity via vaccination rather than risk contracting the disease but for the vast majority of people, it’s a mild/asymptomatic illness and confers immunity after recovery.

Yeah but to be immune from the virus you are likely to have been ill and/or spread it. Doesn’t sound amazing to me compared with vaccines

The vaccine doesn't prevent people from contracting or spreading covid, it just means that if one does contract it, hopefully, one won't die from it.

I thought the evidence was showing it did reduce transmission?

Oh Redcurrant don't go all facty!! 😊

However, the household members if the CEV - who were priority 6 on the original draft JCVI/MHRA document were removed from it, pending more evidence on effect of transmission.

They have not been re-instated, so presumably government scientists don't think the evidence is yet good enough. It can't be reluctance to follow the condition that they themselves set - not least because other groups who were not on either November draft or December final form have been added, so it's not unwillingness to alter the list when evidence exists

A study of all healthcare workers employed by the NHS in Scotland and their households (which has not yet been peer-reviewed), shows that the rate of infection with Covid-19 for people that live with healthcare workers is at least 30% lower when the worker has been vaccinated mostly with a single dose. Since household members of healthcare workers can also be infected via other people (not just via the healthcare worker they live with), this 30% relative risk reduction is an underestimate of the ‘true’ effect of vaccination on transmission.

www.publichealthscotland.scot/news/2021/march/covid-19-vaccine-linked-to-a-reduction-in-transmission/

@MmeLaraque your dr can't say all of that with 100% confidence as some of its not fully known
Its not 100% anything but even one dose is considered to give some protection and there is some evidence that it helps with transmission possibly , but this is all still being reviewed .also low uptake ? Maybe in certain areas but all in all pretty sure the uptake isn't low so where is your dr getting this all from as a lot of what they have stated isn't fully known yet

@MRex

Everyone is well aware of what immunity is *@bumbleymummy*. What we've been trying to explain to you is transmission, how those who are infected go on to infect the most vulnerable. How do you still not understand after a year that when you catch a virus it's likely that you'll pass it on?

I really don’t need you to ‘explain’ that to me.

The point we disagreed on was the idea that the small number of people who choose not to have the vaccine (because vaccine uptake has been incredibly high - much higher than expected - in most groups so far) are somehow more of a risk that the millions of unvaccinated children and young people and the people who aren’t immune despite having been vaccinated. You can argue all you like that it’s ‘unavoidable’ but it doesn’t make them less of a risk.

@sherrystrull

If you already have proven antibodies, what do you think the vaccine is going to add?

But Unvaccinated children and young people don't have a choice as yet.

Those that have the vaccination and still transmit will have done all they could.