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3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

333 replies

Laytwir024 · 19/03/2021 19:56

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

OP posts:
bumbleymummy · 20/03/2021 15:14

It still doesn’t make them less of a risk to those who can’t be vaccinated though does it? It’s therefore up to the at-risk person to decide if they are happy to take the risk of coming across any of the groups of non-immune people who might infect them.

luckylavender · 20/03/2021 15:27

@Weepingwillow22 - we've had 2 waves not 3.

Notonthestairs · 20/03/2021 15:30

I thought your argument was that having the vaccine wouldnt lessen transmission and therefore there was no value (to you) in having it.

All indications are that is does lessen transmission.

There will always be some that can not have the vaccination and we protect them as well as ourselves.

luckylavender · 20/03/2021 15:31

@Waxonwaxoff0 - as I understand it, the 'South African' mutation was found in South Africa, where they have good sequencing like we do. This doesn't mean it originated in SA, like the Kent mutation did not necessarily originate in Kent. Spanish Flu originated in the US but was first found in Spain.

MrsFezziwig · 20/03/2021 15:36

no country is going to want to take the risk of allowing us in when our numbers will be so high once again.

German tourists are currently being welcomed to Mallorca while Angela Merkel is warning of exponential growth in Germany.

bumbleymummy · 20/03/2021 15:38

@Notonthestairs

I thought your argument was that having the vaccine wouldnt lessen transmission and therefore there was no value (to you) in having it.

All indications are that is does lessen transmission.

There will always be some that can not have the vaccination and we protect them as well as ourselves.

No, I don’t think I’ve said anything about transmission. Are you confusing me with another poster?

Why don’t you explain how I can protect a pregnant woman from her unvaccinated children who are in school every day?

EileenGC · 20/03/2021 15:39

German tourists are currently being welcomed to Mallorca while Angela Merkel is warning of exponential growth in Germany.

German tourists have been welcomed to Mallorca throughout the winter. There was never a rule banning international travel, it was just discouraged. What’s changed is that some parts of Spain are no longer considered a risk area at EU level, so tourists can now travel without the need for testing and quarantine on the way back, as the risk of bringing back the virus is extremely low.

Spain letting them in from a hotspot, is another matter.

EileenGC · 20/03/2021 15:42

no country is going to want to take the risk of allowing us in when our numbers will be so high once again.

Spain will allow you in if you can produce a negative test and/or a vaccine passport. Their borders have been open since June 2020 and I myself have travelled there multiple times, from different countries with different levels of infection.

The issue is coming back. Currently you need a million tests and to self-isolate for 10 days. That’s not feasible for many people. That’s what needs to change for people to be allowed to travel, it’s the requirements on the way back.

Itsalonghaul · 20/03/2021 15:44

It is 11c in Mallorca currently so I am not sure how many Germans are lying on the beaches at the moment! At least they don't need to fight over the sunbeds with anyone else Grin

EileenGC · 20/03/2021 15:49

@Itsalonghaul

It is 11c in Mallorca currently so I am not sure how many Germans are lying on the beaches at the moment! At least they don't need to fight over the sunbeds with anyone else Grin
Oh trust me, there’s lots of them 🙈 Where I live in Germany it was -6º last night. What I would give for 11! Grin
CuriousaboutSamphire · 20/03/2021 15:53

@bumblemummy!!! Of course you have mentioned transmission, on almost every thread!

bumbleymummy · 20/03/2021 15:56

@CuriousaboutSamphire Her comment was that I’ve argued the vaccine wouldn’t lessen transmission. I have not said anything about that - other posters have been discussing it though so she may have confused me with one of them.

Notonthestairs · 20/03/2021 16:09

My apologises @bumbleymummy. I see you are quite right, I did confuse you with another poster. You have not mentioned tranmission and only refer to your own risk.

To answer your question of course you alone can not prevent a pregnant woman from getting Covid from her school children.

However if as suggested the vaccination lowers transmission then you will reduce the chances of you transmitting it to anyone else which I consider to be a very big bonus to getting the jab.

bumbleymummy · 20/03/2021 16:14

@Notonthestairs That’s quite alright. It’s a fast moving conversation -easily done!

The paper I posted upthread also shows a reduced risk of transmission after someone has recovered from natural infection too. So the many people who have had covid already and recovered are contributing to the herd immunity that will protect those who can’t be vaccinated.

CuriousaboutSamphire · 20/03/2021 16:37

But that relies on nobody getting severely ill or dying from covid!

You say you are low risk, that's your assessment based on the 'coulds' and 'maybes' you have posted.

But, and this is why we have lockdowns across the world, some people do get severe illness, many die, all of which threatens health care. And that's not mentioning long covid and other co morbidities.

Like many I don't want covid and it's concomitant risks as those associated with the vaccines are far less in occurrence and severity.

bumbleymummy · 20/03/2021 16:50

@CuriousaboutSamphire yes, that’s why we’ve had lockdowns and then vaccinated the people most likely to end up in hospital/die rather than just open up and pursue a ‘natural immunity’ strategy for all.

My risk assessment is based on the studies that have been published that show risk breakdown by age/comoribdities etc. It’s statistics. There are no guarantees of course but I’ve taken far bigger risks in my life.

Beebityboo · 20/03/2021 17:25

With regards to transmission I actually think they are being a conservative with the truth. The CDC are letting fully vaccinated people from different households meet with each other / mix indoors. I think this could be because they already know vaccination radically reduces transmission. Obviously telling the population this before the vast majority are vaccinated wouldn't be a good idea.

CuriousaboutSamphire · 20/03/2021 17:45

Unbelievable! None so blind, and all that!

sherrystrull · 20/03/2021 17:45

@bumbleymummy

What do I think the vaccine will add to my antibodies?

My antibodies protect ME. I've seen no research that shows having antibodies stops transmission.
Therefore I want the vaccine to protect OTHERS. I've seen research that it stops transmission by a significant amount. I am in close contact with many others each day.

Surely you can see that vaccines are not only about protecting an individual?

TableFlowerss · 20/03/2021 18:08

**My jab is due today. The big hoo-ha is this:

Just over 26 million people have had their first vaccination dose. Only 2 million have had their second dose. 67.8 million people in the UK.

The vaccine doesn't prevent people from contracting or spreading covid, it just means that if one does contract it, hopefully, one won't die from it.

That's not my opinion, that's exactly what my GP told me yesterday, after they expressed concerns that there's not enough uptake of the vaccine. So there you have it. The big hoo-ha is because only a small fraction of the population is fully vaccinated, and the vaccine doesn't prevent anyone from contracting or spreading it anyway**

@MmeLaraque

They may not be fully protected but they are still significantly more protected than without the vaccine. And I’m not suggesting we open up tomorrow, but once the vulnerable have had their second jab then that’s it.

We know it’s not 100% effective but it’s much much much better than having no vaccine at all. It might not prevent it from spreading but it’s likely to prevent many many deaths and hospitalisations, which was always the whole point.

Like anything, people will still die despite the vaccines, but not in the numbers we’ve seen previously. The most vulnerable are vaccinated so that’s the priority.

Regarding the slow up take, well tough. If people are choosing not to take if for whatever reason A- it’s their choice but B- and more importantly, it shouldn’t impact on the rest of society, the young healthy people that it won’t affect, in getting back to normal. Yes we know there will be some that will, in the same way some did of the flu each year unexpectedly

So

bumbleymummy · 20/03/2021 18:58

@sherrystrull

Re the study I linked to in my previous post:

“ The study also found that rate of positive PCR tests with or without symptoms were lower after vaccination and previous infection, suggesting that both vaccination and previous infection are likely to reduce onward transmission, and even when people did get infected after a previous infection there was evidence that the amount of virus present was reduced, making transmission less likely.”

Hope that offers you some reassurance.

tobee · 20/03/2021 19:01

@Dongdingdong

Mumsnet has never respected the EU and been waiting for this moment.

WTAF? If you did a poll of remain vs leave on MN I’d say it would be 90% remain. Leave voters have been subject to a barrage of abuse and nastiness on this forum for years. Then the vaccine fiasco happened and the “EU can do no wrong” brigade went very quiet.

I love the EU. And I have been loudly talking about the crapness of the eu vaccine rollout on here and elsewhere.

sherrystrull · 20/03/2021 19:28

[quote bumbleymummy]@sherrystrull

Re the study I linked to in my previous post:

“ The study also found that rate of positive PCR tests with or without symptoms were lower after vaccination and previous infection, suggesting that both vaccination and previous infection are likely to reduce onward transmission, and even when people did get infected after a previous infection there was evidence that the amount of virus present was reduced, making transmission less likely.”

Hope that offers you some reassurance.[/quote]
That's great to read!

I'd rather have just had the vaccine rather than being poorly with the covid to achieve it though!

MrsFezziwig · 21/03/2021 01:24

It is 11c in Mallorca currently so I am not sure how many Germans are lying on the beaches at the moment!

The same newspaper article which mentioned the German tourists also said they were disappointed to arrive and find the weather cloudy and cool!

MrsFezziwig · 21/03/2021 01:26

Spain letting them in from a hotspot, is another matter.

That is what I was referring to, in response to the poster who said no-one would want to let us in.

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