Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I’ve been looking for the total rather than Covid inpatient stats, can anyone link to them? @Doomsdayiscoming seems to have them but I can’t see them in the helpful list in the first post.

@MRex

I'm amazed we still have a tiny drop in cases with an the additional testing, it's great.

I don’t believe it will ever go above 10k/day again. Maybe next December or January. Might result in 100 deaths per day, probably less.

Fantastic how we are flattening- however I expect the numbers to start to go the other direction within a week or two. The next few weeks will be very interesting to see the effect of schools reopening, it will be a true test of their role in how our waves start to form.

I feel we will start to see the backtracking on the plan to end restrictions by June once that R goes above 1.

Purely speculative but perhaps our third wave will be a longer swell through the summer especially if one of the variants takes hold that isn’t covered by the vaccines. A longer summer school holiday period perhaps starting early July? Followed by another winter January lockdown?

Curious to know what others think.

@SilenceIsNoLongerSuspicious

I’ve been looking for the total rather than Covid inpatient stats, can anyone link to them? *@Doomsdayiscoming* seems to have them but I can’t see them in the helpful list in the first post.

On the dashboard. On healthcare?

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

You can then look by U.K., or by nation.

You can even add up the nations most recent entries. However on Monday and Tuesday (data for weekend) you can get odd fluctuations. The following 5 days (when trending down) are always falls.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Fantastic how we are flattening- however I expect the numbers to start to go the other direction within a week or two. The next few weeks will be very interesting to see the effect of schools reopening, it will be a true test of their role in how our waves start to form.

I feel we will start to see the backtracking on the plan to end restrictions by June once that R goes above 1.

Purely speculative but perhaps our third wave will be a longer swell through the summer especially if one of the variants takes hold that isn’t covered by the vaccines. A longer summer school holiday period perhaps starting early July? Followed by another winter January lockdown?

Curious to know what others think.

Weird.

I’m a pessimist and I think restrictions will be eased sooner than later.

June 21st is so far away!

@boys3

Our school is asking for Monday and Thursday testing, and they've been playing things generally by the book, so I don't think they've been given definite days.

@Doomsdayiscoming no you’re just looking at the numbers and getting caught up in the positive mirage. We have been locked down fairly rigidly for a long time now, it would be very alarming if those numbers didn’t not look how they do now.

Remember how fast the numbers changed before this lockdown was announced? That variant is still around waiting for opportunities to present themselves. Time will tell, I hope you are right and I’m terribly off the mark I really do.

@Doomsdayiscoming why do you expect that vaccine uptake will be lower in the north? North west uptake is above England average in every age band?

@NotOnMute

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

The NHS website has total bed occupancy, COVID and non COVID - in the weekly publications www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Oh how strange - when I replied to that message it was asking about hospital capacity and has now gone!

@boys3

Specimen dates in England, yesterday’s look a bit short, but nothing overly concerning at first glance in the figs released today.

Friday 19th

First day of reporting, 1311 cases added. 14% lower than equivalent last week.

Thursday 18th

Second day of reporting, 2414 cases added taking total to 4055, just under 5% lower than equivalent last week.

Wednesday 17th

Third day of reporting, the number added yesterday looked a bit light (1740). Today 735 added, which is up on recent third day numbers. Total so far 4220, still close to 16% lower than equivalent last week. But some way back from the 25% drop that yesterday indicated. With schools back happy to take a 16% decline.

Tuesday 16th

Fourth day of reporting, 154 cases added, taking total to 4741 just under 11% lower than equivalent last week.

wk commencing Monday 15th

Totals 19885 cases so far, compared with equivalent last week of 21846.

North West

Spec date wise added today
Friday 193
Thursday 431, total 607
Wednesday 107, total 450
Tuesday 31, total 771

Wednesday still looks a bit out of kilter???

Yep - and looking at the various parts of the NW it looks like GM, Liverpool, Cheshire and Lancs all have a sharp dip on Wednesday followed by an increase again on Thursday. Perhaps it is due to timing of LFD testing if they are all doing tests on Thursdays but I suspect there are some delayed cases still to be added

less take of the vaccine in the North generally

Seriously where do you get this nonsense from?

Based on The NHS latest detailed stats release.

Overall take up by region

South West 47%

West Midlands 43.9%

East Midlands 43.7%

North West 43.4%

North East 42.9%

South East 42.5%

East 42.5%

Yorks and Humber 42.4%

London 29.4%

Taking just those aged 55 and over

London at 57.4% lowest by 12 percentage points.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Is this a general guide though *@boys3* ? I haven't received anything that says that, either as parent or staff member. Of course it's the logical time to do it so you're probably right, guidance or no guidance.

If anyone actually continues to test.....

@JanFebAnyMonth. Sorry I should have been clear its the local message where I am. Not a national steer.

Yes it's very clearly London that has the biggest problems with vaccine-hesitant people, and it looks to be related to the higher BME population in London. The UK has one of the highest levels of public support for vaccination generally, compared to other countries in the world. London is a very global city with a lot of people with links to other countries (not just BME people), so I think it's not that surprising that they're more hesitate about getting the jab than people who rely solely on UK news channels and whose friends and family are all British. There's talk also about deprived communities in London finding it hard to get to vaccination centres, though I find it hard to believe it's really any harder in London than in rural areas.

I volunteered at our local GP vaccination hub today - and managed to get rewarded at the end of the day with one of the leftover vaccines . Very few no-shows though, so doesn't seem that so the fuss in the press about the AZ vaccine in Europe has caused much of a problem here.

[quote ceeveebee]@Doomsdayiscoming why do you expect that vaccine uptake will be lower in the north? North west uptake is above England average in every age band?[/quote]
Oh fair enough. Guess London skews it but that’s great for the North.

Just looking at threads such as "Do I really need to continue WFH after I'm vaccinated?", and looking at the problem of people breaking the rules "because I've had my vaccine":

it would be useful to know the size of the difference between the likelihood of catching eg flu and becoming seriously ill or dying of it, with the same risk regarding Covid after (partial or) full vaccination.

Presumably it's possible to calculate and give a comparison? For different levels of local infection rates.

I would think that would be a helpful stat to explain why we'll still need social distancing for the rest of the year.

Now to be fair to Doom ; and nonsense was a bit harsh so apologies for that; inner city areas generally have got lower uptake of the vaccine -whilst nowhere in the, still to be defined, North - is in the lowest 20 councils for uptake, the likes of Manchester, and Newcastle are not that many places higher, and whilst not North nor are the likes of Leicester or Nottingham.

@boys3

Now to be fair to Doom ; and nonsense was a bit harsh so apologies for that; inner city areas generally have got lower uptake of the vaccine -whilst nowhere in the, still to be defined, North - is in the lowest 20 councils for uptake, the likes of Manchester, and Newcastle are not that many places higher, and whilst not North nor are the likes of Leicester or Nottingham.

Haha. I respected the put down. I was speaking without really thinking.

For me, the north is Leicester and above. So I just assumed it would be worse. Wrist well and truly slapped!

London is really worrying actually.

Doesn't London have a younger demographic, so part of the low uptake is simply down to people not being old enough to be eligible?

People might be interested in this which includes a 10 minute presentation by Jonathan Wolf, the co-founder of the Zoe App. He's on at the beginning, about 2 minutes in.

@Bordois

Doesn't London have a younger demographic, so part of the low uptake is simply down to people not being old enough to be eligible?

It does have a lower demographic. But if you compare vaccine uptake just in the older age groups it lags well behind other regions.

[quote ceeveebee]@Doomsdayiscoming why do you expect that vaccine uptake will be lower in the north? North west uptake is above England average in every age band?[/quote]
That isn't take-up, that's just progress so far. Provision of vaccines is also an issue where that's been quite variable. I think until we're at the "everyone has been offered" stage per group we can't declare what the take-up is. London population is younger so had lower percentage vaccinated due to fewer old people; in reverse it may take more time to get through the lower age categories.

There is a noted issue with BAME take-up, I don't think though that we know what that'll look like as more time passes and we get to younger age groups.

@Bordois

Doesn't London have a younger demographic, so part of the low uptake is simply down to people not being old enough to be eligible?

My post above (from RP131 on Twitter) breaks it down as % vaccinated by age group and shows that London has below average uptake in every age band in the 60+ groups. So it’s about lower uptake rather than the younger population

Ahead in the 55-59 group though interestingly.
Link attached in case the photo above is hard to read
twitter.com/rp131/status/1372560265921839109?s=21