Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Rosesformama

Not everywhere is on holiday yet. North West here and we break up Thursday.

In the nw- our authority has finished but I think it’s almost the only one that has

Lancashire have finished already but we’re pushing on to Thursday in Cumbria. We’ve been told to LFT through the holidays (staff)

Is anyone expecting people to log negative home LFTs? Surely most people are using them to pick up a positive then getting them confirmed by PCR?

What do people think?

I still think cases are falling, and the "flattening" is an artifact of LFD increased detection (and even some false positives).

Equally, I think by the end of lockdown as we are now, care homes and individuals are very well protected from cases - the current set of people who need to go into them have all had it recently enough so are themselves pretty immune.

And of course there's vaccinations on a huge proportion of the vulnerable groups. However I think we need more community cases before we can know that it's the vaccine protection rather than lockdown that is preventing the current hospitalisations, because at only 50% preventing infection and 25% at preventing symptoms and with the regular testing we'd see more elderly cases, the same as we see lots of kid cases.

So whilst I trust absolutely that the vaccine is effective, I don't think we can say confidently it's the reason for the lack of hospitalisations.

The fact cases are not rising (falling or flat depending on your thoughts of the change of methodology) despite schools opening does actually I think point to some vaccine reduction of transmission for sure though, but I'm not buying the disconnect just yet, the disconnect is the "protect the vulnerable" that goes hand in hand with lockdown.

And, yes, we're moving towards a position of disconnecting cases & hospitalisations. At least in my area, where the (now very low) number of cases are amongst the 15-19 year olds, which is a shame bubble-wise. Very high take up of jabs (not an ethnically diverse place) so much so that under 50s are allowed to be invited, apparently. Everyone else I know except me, tho!

In my town there are clearly lots of people back in the office & generally out and about. And have been for some time. Not sure on household mixing, but I sense it's creeping since the schools went back. Next few weeks will be interesting.

The

@AyeRobot

Is anyone expecting people to log negative home LFTs? Surely most people are using them to pick up a positive then getting them confirmed by PCR?

Quite a lot of people must be - there were 2.1m LFD tests logged on on Sunday 28th and in-school testing is finished now. I’ve been logging all our negatives but I am definitely a rule follower!

@Lalalablahblahblah

I never put my ethnicity either. I hate being expected to and wish it wasn't expected on forms. I'm mixed race but look sort of ambiguous and always feel like a fraud putting anything down. It makes me feel uncomfortable

It looks like it's not uncommon, I really wasn't sure but considering in a few hours there are three of us on here who either have a partner who doesn't do it or doesn't do it themselves.

I asked my DD and she is like you and says sometimes she doesn't put her ethnicity, sometimes she puts white and sometimes mixed. She says sometimes she identifies more with one than the other.

You are supposed to log negatives. Some schools ask parents to log all results with them AND with the NHS. But I'm sure many people won't, as we've discussed previously. Odd that the number of LFTs is so much lower today than yesterday, by comparison with last week.

There are presumably stats somewhere for how many people refuse to give their ethnicity on forms, perhaps depending on context although I wouldn't have thought that has much of an effect.

@ancientgran - my previous response seems to have gone. My friend puts White British who's British-born Mauritian and Si to her sister and brother. For whatever reason they don't feel Mauritius is really Africa, so nothing else fits. I think ethnicity gets complicated and if anyone needs to know then it might be better to explain what they need to know and why if they want compliance.

Can't quickly find anything that says how many people refuse to answer the ethnicity question(although here's lots of research/guidance on which ethnic and /or racial terms to use). One American bit of research re Medicare forms, quotes 3.7% not answering that question.

Is the big drop in LFTs because it's Tuesday though?

I understood most tests were being done Sunday/Wednesday or Monday Thursday, though everyone will have their own routine. Just a thought.

No, it was in comparison to the Tuesday figures for last week @PurpleWh1teGreen

The system for reporting LFT results was down for several hours on Tuesday morning.

So a lot of results may not have got on the system.

We haven’t been sent tests to do during the holidays, just asked to do one in the morning before returning to school. I know a large part of the country has broken up for Easter so that could account for the drop this week.

@EasterIsComing

We haven’t been sent tests to do during the holidays, just asked to do one in the morning before returning to school. I know a large part of the country has broken up for Easter so that could account for the drop this week.

That's interesting, we're breaking up tomorrow and the children are being asked to test twice weekly throughout the holiday - more kits will be issued to them tomorrow.

We have to keep up twice weekly testing over the holiday and we were supplied enough to do this at the end of term.

We were told to test in the holidays too. I think the system being down for a few hours yesterday sounds like the most likely reason for the very sharp drop. May mean we're in for a bit of a hike today

We have to test through the holidays too. They've been given tests to do twice a week. We normally log them through school and NHS. Over Easter we just have to log with NHS but send school an email if they test positive

We are supposed to, too. It is in DfE guidelines and the test reporting websites send nagging emails.. Lots won't bother. I won't bother. Despite everyone else being super excited about rule relaxations, I still have nowhere to go and no one to see. My life has become somewhat 'safer' as I am now on holiday : other people in the country do it via workplace schemes so my view is that I will do the tests while at the workplace. DS is very very rule compliant so will carry on doing his which is fine with me.

We've been told to test through the holidays, and sent tests home, but I'll put bets that a lot of people won't, and even of those that do, won't register it.
What we might see is if people get a positive, then think they're not going anywhere over the holiday so they'll just get a PCR one done without saying anything about the lateral flow one, so they don't have the worry if it's a false positive.

Breaking news on CNBC - Pfizer 100% effective in 12-15 yo and well-tolerated (sample of 2260 kids)

www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/health/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-adolescents.amp.html

Excellent!

@JanFebAnyMonth

Can't quickly find anything that says how many people refuse to answer the ethnicity question(although here's lots of research/guidance on which ethnic and /or racial terms to use). One American bit of research re Medicare forms, quotes 3.7% not answering that question.

I guess whether 3.7% is significant depends how evenly distributed it is - it doesn't matter if it's 3.7% of each ethnic group who don't answer, but I suspect that isn't the case. I'm sure I've read before that Jewish populations are, for very understandable reasons, often particularly hesitant to self-identify on forms where it isn't clearly necessary.

At the risk of sounding profoundly stupid & getting my arse handed to me, surely Judaism is a religion not an ethnicity?

I totally respect people's right not to answer the question btw, especially given the amount of racist dicks who think it's funny to answer "white English".