Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Also Johnson confirmed second Pfizer dose was ok

It is interesting that the government are using this Cambridge University department to communicate the messages they want to be clear. Maybe they have for a while, but it's the first time I've noticed:

wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/coronavirus/communicating-personal-risk-covid-19-advice-our-studies/

Thanks lonely, very interesting. David Spiegelhalter's department. Their work must be advancing very well at the moment.

Nice graphic @lonely. I imagine they didn't extend it to the older age groups as they know they don't need to worry about them getting their jabs when offered. And the numbers likely to be hospitalised in the older age groups are large so might rather dwarf those in the lower age groups, making the vaccine look less necessary for younger people. The messaging on this is clear - have the vaccine if you're young for your own protection too. It's not just about being a good citizen.

@lonelyplanet

"I missed Boris at 5, not sure why as I did intend to watch him. Did I miss much?"

No not much of a surprise. But I found this slide interesting, shame they couldn't extend it to older groups too.

That is an interesting slide but I agree it would be nice to extend it to older groups.

@Lalalablahblahblah

It's a bit pointless showing that graphic at the moment though isn't it? Most of the people in those groups don't actually have the opportunity to get the vaccine so surely all that does is raise anxiety, when they can't actually do anything about it. It is interesting though.

Maybe they want to ramp up demand, nothing like a shortage to make people keen just look at toilet roll madness. Having said that all the younger people I know want it so don't need persuading.

It's also complete garbage, in that it's not the risk of an individual being hospitalised at that age, so I agree it's pure anxiety raising - something the government has been pushing continuously for the last year.

Because the people in the younger age groups who are hospitalised overwhelmingly have serious co-morbidities, almost all of those individuals would know they were higher risk, and it massively overstates the risk for the general population.

I also firmly believe that such things need to be shown against the risk of other things - air pollution, obesity, (lack of)-exercise, if showing risk of hospitalisation to individuals is actually useful, let's do it with the things that will actually hospitalise them. 7 in 100,000 of the 20 year olds is going out on a road levels!

Lots on this morning about Lenny Henry and friends encouraging vaccination. Does anyone know where they are getting information on ethnicity for people getting the vaccine? Is it the questions they ask when you get the vaccine? I found them a bit rude as I have dual nationality (British and Irish) and when I said that there was laughter and "been doing your DNA then." My DH on the other hand declined to say so he is BAME but not recorded as such. I wonder if he is unusual or if many people do the same.

@Lalalablahblahblah

It's a bit pointless showing that graphic at the moment though isn't it? Most of the people in those groups don't actually have the opportunity to get the vaccine so surely all that does is raise anxiety, when they can't actually do anything about it. It is interesting though.

Yes I agree. I guess they were also saying there is still a risk when you've been vaccinated so don't do anything too stupid. However it would have made more sense to show the risk to older people too, especially with Easter coming up and people wanting to meet up with families.

@ancientgran I wouldn’t be surprised if they were getting their info from GP base records. They seem to be updating their vaccinated/not vaccinated check boxes pretty quickly no matter where the vaccine was done so it will depend on what people have put when they registered at the GP.

On the BBC Live blog:

*They have also been making changes in the background to Test and Trace systems so that contact tracing will be called off if the PCR is negative.

This will be welcome news to those who have been campaigning for this tweak to the system, although it comes too late for anyone incorrectly told to isolate during the reopening of schools in England.*

Anyone find a more official source, as that's pretty worrying as it says that T&T and the advice had not been set up previously to accept a negative PCR, so people have been isolating unnecessarily - harming later compliance and peoples health.

Dashboard delayed (again)

4040 / 56

@Bordois

4040 / 56

That's really good figures today. And not 40,040 cases like it says on BBC news!

(At least) Sub 4000 in hospital in U.K. (3991)

183 less in hospital in England.

Puts England at 10.7% less for the week (Sat to Sat). 4 days to go. If 183 x 4

= 1125 aka 30.6%. Will be huge, yet probably expected after last weeks 19.9%.

[quote Cornettoninja]@ancientgran I wouldn’t be surprised if they were getting their info from GP base records. They seem to be updating their vaccinated/not vaccinated check boxes pretty quickly no matter where the vaccine was done so it will depend on what people have put when they registered at the GP.[/quote]
They still wouldn't have DHs ethnicity then. He never gives it. I think they need to think about that, he is very suspicious about why people want to know, many in his community might feel the same so their figures could be way out.

Or maybe he's an awkward bugger and everyone else gives their ethnicity.

The drop in case rates compared to last week looks to be largely due to a big decline in LFT tests today. 178 LFT cases in England today compared with 1675 last Tuesday. So that's 1500 odd less English LFT cases. Today's total reported cases in England is 3,384 compared with 4,583, so looks to me that a big drop in LFT testing today is the cause of this drop.

Not sure why this is because yesterday's LFT cases was high, which suggested school students/families were still testing and reporting in the holidays. Maybe everyone is out having too much fun in the sunshine today to bother!

@ancientgran DP is the same - he's Jewish, and has a deep rooted aversion to putting that on forms which are personally identifiable.

If he never gives his ethnicity he'll be in the "unknown" category in any analysis. That's not often one the heading writers bother with, but it'll be there in any proper report with the full data in. I don't think there's huge amounts of people don't give their ethnicity to their GP though. Most appreciate that it's not irrelevant to their medical care and risks they run, so doubt the unknown group affects the statistics too much.

Not everywhere is on holiday yet. North West here and we break up Thursday.

[quote PatriciaHolm]@ancientgran DP is the same - he's Jewish, and has a deep rooted aversion to putting that on forms which are personally identifiable.[/quote]
Not just my awkward bugger then.

Actually this is where it comes from. He was born just after the war so the idea of "the state" rounding up people because of their ethnicity wasn't far fetched at all.

He's always said if we get a far right govt he isn't going to provide them with the information of where to find him. I was looking at the history of police force he worked for online and was surprised he wasn't on there as the first BAME officer and they show someone who joined after him. As far as he knows his ethnicity isn't recorded anywhere.

If, like me, you are a white Christian it just isn't something you worry about is it.

@Rosesformama

Not everywhere is on holiday yet. North West here and we break up Thursday.

South West here and all the local schools break up Thursday.

I think we are starting to see the point where it is fairly clear that admissions (and therefore, presumably in due course deaths) are disconnecting from the trend in cases.

Cases have been roughly flat since 1 March (10% fall over the 7 day average between 1 March and 21 March, but given the vastly increased numbers of tests I think that probably evens out to flat). That should feed into hospital admissions 2-3 weeks later but 14-21 March the 7 day average fell by around 21%, and it is continuing to fall after 21 March. What do people think?