Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Thanks that's all very interesting and a bit less worrisome!

This is interesting re shielders' behaviour post first dose:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirusandclinicallyextremelyvulnerablepeopleinengland/22februaryto27february2021

@Firefliess I also don’t think today’s relaxation will cause a spike, however, lots of my children’s outdoor activities are restarting so it is more than just socialising outdoors. These children (all from different schools) are allowed to meet up outdoors in large groups, all exercising and breathing heavily.

all exercising and breathing heavily

And very heavily given their drop in fitness from weeks of little exercise!

@sirfredfredgeorge

all exercising and breathing heavily

And very heavily given their drop in fitness from weeks of little exercise!

Very true. GS was convinced sitting on his behind for 9 weeks hadn't had any effect on his fitness. His first timed 1500m run at school soon changed his mind.

Panorama tonight is about a lab doing covid tests, sounds interesting but that might be because I know someone who is working in one.

4654/23 today.

@ancientgran

4654/23 today.

Those are nice falling figures :)

They are, bit confusing for me though Torbay going down and South Hams going up. I'm not sure if I should be using the front door or the back gate now.

@ancientgran

They are, bit confusing for me though Torbay going down and South Hams going up. I'm not sure if I should be using the front door or the back gate now.

Where does the window on side take you?

Seems like a minor correction for England hospitalisations.

Starting the week (First two days are weekend reporting so can be minimal or even increases in patients) with a big 238 fall (6.5%). Which makes up for the paltry falls at the end of last week. So probably just some dodgy reporting, and this week will see an artificial bounce to make up for it, especially if tomorrow’s (ie Sunday’s data) adds anything to this 6.5%.

Specimen dates for England.

Sunday 28th

First day of reporting 1736 cases added, 26% lower than equivalent last week.

Slightly bigger fall than that for LFDs. 1.808m last Sunday, 1.444m yesterday.

Saturday 27th

Second day of reporting 1819 cases added taking total to 2426. 15% lower than equivalent last week

Friday 26th

Third day of reporting, 397 cases added taking total to 3496, 12% lower than equivalent last week

rest of w/c 22nd March

Thursday 4% lower than equivalent last week.

Wednesday 0.8% higher

Tuesday 12% lower

Monday 4.6% lower.

So far 26557 cases added vs 29079 at the same point last week for w/c 15th March.

LFDs in England 6.28m over past seven days; 7.83m the week before, and 7.6m the week before that.

Where does the window on side take you?

The sea or the moors I imagine, both sound risky tbh, but with the sunny weather the moors is probably safer.

So LFD's on sunday this week down by over 20% - people not taking them, or people not registering the test?

The good news is though, positivity rates are down even more, from 0.125% "positive" to 0.095% "positive", so that's good news - although it could also be that people aren't registering the positives any more either and are going straight to their own PCR through not trusting it as some on this thread have said they'd do.

The fall in LFD positivity does seem a bit strange if the Zoe/ONS claims about stable rates are true given we still have falling older ages, but maybe we're really heavily into the medical staff (the other big consumers of LFD's especially logged ones I'm sure) being very protected with so many now being double dose vaccinated.

Good news anyway!

Those are nice figures @boys3. Falls on both Friday and Saturday particularly encouraging as those days are not likely to be much affected by mass school testing
(which tends to be other days of the week)

Some good data on impact from vaccine over a month for hospitalisation 21 to 4 for example

Listening to briefing

Out of 100k

Think that was my age group so the 40ish banding

Someone else listening may want to add or correct

@sirfredfredgeorge Of course there is one other possibility, which is that people are using the LFTs instead of PCRs and not bothering with either registering it or getting a confirmatory PCR even if positive. I certainly hope that's not the case, but don't think we can entirely discount the possibility - especially if people perhaps have symptoms so are aware that it's likely a true positive and are fearful of the test and trace system kicking in and causing difficulties for them and their families, which would happen if they go for a PCR. We do need the ONS/Zoe data to keep track of things currently.

That is true @Firefliess, I discount it, 'cos I can't imagine someone disengaged enough with the process to ignore a positive entirely to bother doing an LFD at all.

I do agree there may be some who are happy to isolate themselves but want to avoid T&T involvement and annoying people they were in contact with who won't be so generous.

But then I also don't really trust ONS or Zoe on those stats as these rule breaking groups are outside of their evidence so accounting for the disengaged will be tricky for both, again though how they decide to model in the changes in the number of "disengaged rulebreaker" I don't know.

The other thing is that it looks increasingly likely in other countries that willingness to agree with restrictions is waning, I wonder how much the same is here, or if the "steps system" with dates (even if they're pretending it's not dates) is enough to keep compliance for longer. It certainly seems that around me, not much rule breaking (although many people who criticise things which aren't against rules)

But then I also don't really trust ONS or Zoe on those stats as these rule breaking groups are outside of their evidence so accounting for the disengaged will be tricky for both, again though how they decide to model in the changes in the number of "disengaged rulebreaker" I don't know.

Zoe and ONS may not pick up trends immediately but generally "disengaged rulebreakers" end up quickly spreading infections to law abiding family, friends and key workers (e.g. in supermarket). Those cases will be picked up with 5-10 days lag.

I personally like Zoe because many of its users (or, at least, users I know) are working outside of home. They tend to be infected quickly if cases in the community go up. So far Zoe has been spot on with its estimates.

@MRex Where does the window on side take you? If I turn left into the back garden and the South Hams, if I turn right the front garden and Torbay. If I close my eyes and go for a run I could be in Teignbridge quite quickly. Maybe I should look at their figures?

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@Doomsdayiscoming

Seems like a minor correction for England hospitalisations.

Starting the week (First two days are weekend reporting so can be minimal or even increases in patients) with a big 238 fall (6.5%). Which makes up for the paltry falls at the end of last week. So probably just some dodgy reporting, and this week will see an artificial bounce to make up for it, especially if tomorrow’s (ie Sunday’s data) adds anything to this 6.5%.

Monday night stealth update: 8:15pm

+28 for Hospitalisation in England.

So 210 for both days. Pretty huge, probably bloated by the end of last weeks figures.

105 less per day for 5 days to get 20% for the week (ending 2940)

179 less per day for 5 days to get 30% for the week (ending 2573)

Oh and approx 4200 in hospital U.K.-wide.

Might hit sub 4000 on the next U.K. update.

[quote ancientgran]**@MRex* Where does the window on side take you?* If I turn left into the back garden and the South Hams, if I turn right the front garden and Torbay. If I close my eyes and go for a run I could be in Teignbridge quite quickly. Maybe I should look at their figures?[/quote]
Teignbridge looks best, I'm a bit concerned about injuries you'll pick up from running into trees and suchlike though. A wig, a clipboard and a hi-vis jacket may be best. Don't forget it has to be a clicky pen with the clipboard.

Sounds like a plan. I've got the clicky pen but don't know about the rest.

I'm currently stir crazy as my DH isn't doing well and I'm struggling to get him out or to leave him. I've just had my food delivery and I talked to a real live human being for 2 minutes. So that's probably my excitement for this week.

Watched Panorama, quite depressing. I missed Boris at 5, not sure why as I did intend to watch him. Did I miss much?

"I missed Boris at 5, not sure why as I did intend to watch him. Did I miss much?"

No not much of a surprise. But I found this slide interesting, shame they couldn't extend it to older groups too.