Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

That's a decent defence for Canada @ancientgran, hopefully someone can use their facilities soon.

Hopefully they can start making Novavax soon.

It's a tricky situation isn't it.

@ancientgran

Hopefully they can start making Novavax soon.

It's a tricky situation isn't it.

An article the other day suggested it is already in production in Teesside in anticipation. Those doses would not necessary be for the Uk market though.

3862 cases, 19 deaths. Loads of vaccinations, passed 30m for one dose, passed 3.5m second dose.

If we assume 52m UK adults reach 85% vaccinated, with 15m single Janssen doses used plus two doses for others... Then tomorrow marks the halfway point where the UK will have given half the doses required, and will also have vaccinated almost all the most vulnerable adults. Because those doses reported tomorrow will have gone into arms today, I'm going to count the milestone as reached. Halfway.

Yes, there will still be children to be vaccinated (but likely to go down to max 65% vaccinated) and boosters... Call it a third if you want to be the pessimist in the corner.

There looks to be something odd again in reporting for the north east and North Yorkshire. A few zeros which feels a bit coincidental.

Looking closer some have cases with a specimen date of yesterday but have a headline number of cases of 0 eg Middlesbrough.

Did they perhaps also take some older cases off so it nets to zero? I don't see any notes about it.

PCR testing is now to have an option "because my GP told me to take a test": www.cas.mhra.gov.uk/ViewandAcknowledgment/ViewAlert.aspx?AlertID=103151

@Stillmuddlingthrough

Looking closer some have cases with a specimen date of yesterday but have a headline number of cases of 0 eg Middlesbrough.

@Stillmuddlingthrough. Quite a few older adjustments showing for Middlesbrough. Yesterday it’s cumulative case total was 12274 today it’s 12263.

4 cases added for yesterday and 3 to Friday.

Then cases knocked off

18/3 1 case
14/3 2 cases
23/2 1 case
25/1 1 case
19/12 1 case
11/12 1 case
5/11 1 case
3/10 2 cases
2/10 1 case
6/7 1 case
21/5 1 case
19/5 1 case
10/5 1 case
25/4 1 case
20/4 1 case
18/4 2 cases

And added

23/7 1 case

Hello, sorry if this has been covered. Has anyone done any analysis on the age distribution of Covid deaths? Since the early rollout was heavily weighted towards older people, are we seeing the average age of Covid deaths come down?

Chile illustrates that vaccination is not a silver bullet:

"Despite mounting the world’s fastest per-capita Covid-19 vaccination campaign, Chile has been forced to announce strict new lockdowns as it plunges deeper into a severe second wave of cases which is stretching intensive care capacity.

Chile trails only Israel and the UAE in vaccine doses per 100 inhabitants worldwide, but new cases have risen quickly amid mixed health messaging, travel over the southern hemisphere summer holidays and the circulation of new variants."

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/mar/28/chile-coronavirus-lockdowns-vaccination-success

There were problems at governmental level last year:
www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jun/14/chiles-health-minister-quits-over-government-response-to-covid-19

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]Chile illustrates that vaccination is not a silver bullet:

"Despite mounting the world’s fastest per-capita Covid-19 vaccination campaign, Chile has been forced to announce strict new lockdowns as it plunges deeper into a severe second wave of cases which is stretching intensive care capacity.

Chile trails only Israel and the UAE in vaccine doses per 100 inhabitants worldwide, but new cases have risen quickly amid mixed health messaging, travel over the southern hemisphere summer holidays and the circulation of new variants."

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/mar/28/chile-coronavirus-lockdowns-vaccination-success

There were problems at governmental level last year:
www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jun/14/chiles-health-minister-quits-over-government-response-to-covid-19[/quote]
Sounds like they went hard and fast. Probably people started acting differently immediately after their first dose.

It could be that the vaccine Sinovav, which is their biggest supply isn't as effective:

BBC News - Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55642648

I wonder how soon data will emerge about the vaccines Chile used and their efficacy at one vs two doses? I believe they’ve had Sinovac, AZ and Pfizer.

Cross posted

To date Chile has ordered over 88 million doses of vaccine, enough to fully vaccinate more than double its 19 million people. The government’s ambitious goal is to vaccinate 80% of its population by June. This week around 25% had received at least one dose, putting Chile just behind Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the UK in terms of jabs delivered.

The strategy was developed last summer, when the government, realising that an effective programme could win back support from voters angry at its pandemic response, held early price negotiations with companies developing vaccines. It also invited AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac, and CanSino to hold phase III trials in the country.

Its biggest order is for 66 million doses from the Chinese company Sinovac, one of which was given to President Sebastián Piñera in February, just days after the start of a drive to vaccinate all care home residents in Santiago. The city has been hit by more than a third of Chile’s 812 344 infections. More than 20 000 Chileans have died from covid-19.

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n718

Chile's vaccination program has only just ramped up hasn't it? Only a couple of weeks ago they were quite a bit behind us, now they have just overtaken. Most people vaccinated probably haven't had three weeks clear yet.

They've been ahead of us since mid February.

@lonelyplanet

They've been ahead of us since mid February.

That's daily doses though - you need to look at the cumulative numbers to see who's ahead. It does look as if they've started later than us, so will have more people who caught it pre-vacvination still working though to cases and hospital admissions.

It does sound a note of caution about opening up too quickly. Though I think it's also easy to forget quite how locked down we currently are compared to most countries in the world. No foreign holidays or indoor mixing at all allowed here, hospitality and gyms entirely closed, most people still working from home. It's only when I hear on the news about new lockdowns elsewhere that I end up realising how much more has been open in many other countries these last few months. I don't think today's relaxation to allow outdoor small group socialising is going to create a huge spike.

Chile only really started to ramp up first week of February and looking at the graph from LoneleyPlanet you can see a perfect example of "lumpy supply".

With escalating numbers such as the UK had in December/January the options are to give a lot of people a little protection or to give fewer people better protection. I wonder how they are spacing their doses?

Here are the cumulative graphs, the first one is the UK and the second one Chile. It looks as if Chile got to 20% of the population a little before us, but are not hugely different.

but those graphs are assuming 2 doses per person, so the question of dosing strategy is quite meaningful as protection from first dose is much more relevant to reducing the pressure on hospitals.

Thanks for the charts showing cumulative doses @lonelyplanet. It looks to me that the Guardian journalist got muddled up between doses per 100 people (which is close to 50 - ie similar to the UK) and the proportion of the population vaccinated, which is less than 30%, with only 20% more than 2 weeks post vaccination. That suggests that they've been giving second doses out to most people but are well behind the UK in terms of numbers who have at least 1 dose. And means that we shouldn't really be surprised that they have a current outbreak.

This is the comparative cumulative chart for the first dose only (from ourworldindata website).

Chile is still significantly behind the UK.

Yes 34% vaccinated as apposed to 45%.