Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Sorry if this has already been discussed - Long covid report from January: www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/theprevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications
Tables: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/datasets/prevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications

Long covid risks, see Table 4 in particular for the huge increase in risk by age of MACE (major adverse cardiovascular event, a composite of heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke and arrhythmia; diabates comprises both the type 1 and type 2 variants; CKD: chronic kidney disease stages 3-5; CLD: chronic liver disease). I think we should try to watch updates on this research.

There's an update on the number with more typical long covd symptoms here but it doesn't include MACE: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/adhocs/12788updatedestimatesoftheprevalenceoflongcovidsymptoms

Excellent charts, thanks @boys3.

Thanks for those charts @boys3 They're great! My area is lagging towards the bottom of its region - not what I'd have expected. But I guess the people I talk to aren't reflective of everyone who lives here.

Really interesting charts there @boys3. Some big differences. I wonder if it is reluctance or not enough vaccines getting to certain areas that means some are quite a bit lower than others.

Dashboard now updated
4715 cases / 58 deaths

Two messages on the board

• 850 cases have been removed, which were incorrectly reported relating to specimen dates 23-25 March, in primarily in Yorkshire
• no breakdown of cases between PCR and LFD today

Double hospital update for England - never normally get both days. Oddly low numbers for the final two days. Not sure I buy it. Will be interesting to see what happens next week.

Leaves the week to Saturday at 19.8% less (4589 - 3676 = 913 / 4589 x100 = 19.8%) patients in hospital in England.

@ceeveebee

Dashboard now updated 4715 cases / 58 deaths

Two messages on the board

• 850 cases have been removed, which were incorrectly reported relating to specimen dates 23-25 March, in primarily in Yorkshire
• no breakdown of cases between PCR and LFD today

That makes for an interesting specimen date summary for England.

Friday 26th

First day of reporting 1118 cases added, just under 15% lower than equivalent last week. Albeit with usual first day caveats.

Thursday 25th

Second day of reporting 2143 cases added taking total to 3838, just under 5% lower than equivalent last week.

Wednesday 24th

Third day of reporting, with an addition of 31 cases, taking total to 4875, remains 15% higher than equivalent last week

Tuesday 23rd

Fourth day of reporting, net reduction of 347 cases, total now 4211, 11% lower than equivalent last week

Monday 22nd

Fifth day of reporting net reduction of 31 cases, total now 5300, just under 5% lower than equivalent last week.

Starting from Monday 22nd therefore 19342 cases so far this week, vs 19885 at equivalent point last week.

Looks like we might top 30m first vaccinations tomorrow which feels like a momentous milestone.

@Doomsdayiscoming

Double hospital update for England - never normally get both days. Oddly low numbers for the final two days. Not sure I buy it. Will be interesting to see what happens next week.

Leaves the week to Saturday at 19.8% less (4589 - 3676 = 913 / 4589 x100 = 19.8%) patients in hospital in England.

Quite a weird trend in North East though - up from 625 to 780 in one day. But admissions only around 70 a day so must be some reporting issue there?

Looks like Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Thursday are peak LFD test days. Makes sense as guess most will test Sunday night or Monday morning, and then 3 days later.

Quite a weird trend in North East though - up from 625 to 780 in one day. But admissions only around 70 a day so must be some reporting issue there?

The increase happened between March 26 and March 27 so it is theoretically possible there has been a spike in admissions/hospital transmissions happening today. The published admissions numbers stop on March 25.

However, a reporting issue is a much more likely explanation.

Re North East / Yorks case number adjustments

This looks to be the breakdown:

what we had yesterday before

what we have today after

what's changed adjustment

Biggest reductions in County Durham (144 cases) and Sunderland (110 cases)

Graph set by day since just before schools re-opened for LFDs totals in England. Have not bothered including Saturday, as it really is a non-day volume wise and 7 graphs don't really fit very well

Of course if everyone was testing twice a week - ie secondary age DCs and their parents / carers, plus primary school parents / carers - we'd be looking at 40 million tests a week.

Bit of a way to go still.

I'd suggest:

• take up is an issue / best intentions and people forget
• reporting is then likely way less than 100% of those that do actually test

I'd love to know how many tests have been given out over the past few weeks from the lead up to schools going back.

Covax / Gavi allocations up to May. It's a pretty good distribution, if it were me I'd have put more focus on countries with active outbreaks... But it's also good to see so many vaccination programmes getting started.

The link: www.who.int/publications/m/item/first-round-of-allocation-astra-zeneca-oxford-vaccine

@Mrex - wow.

(The thing that really strikes me is 237 million doses Ox/Az, and 1.2 million of Pfizer. The former all non-profit. Yet Az are the wicked, dishonest company not fulfilling their commitments?)

How come New Zealand is on the list of Covax recipients? I thought it was just the poorer countries?
237m is a lot - but there are about 7m people in the world, maybe half of them dependant on Covax (and requiring two shots each), so still a very long way to go. Hopefully countries like the UK who've over ordered will donate actual vaccines to Covax once they've got enough for their population - though presumably some of our orders that are due in the autumn are being converted into the promissed booster shots.

That should of course have read 7 billion people on the planet

I don't know why NZ is on the list unless it's for certain islands where they are responsible for distribution. Either way, I don't see why they need priority over Brazil, Nigeria etc. I suppose we have to trust that those doing the distribution have a method.

The UK government has said many times that they'll give spare doses once they are available. What's being asked for is to donate the doses for 16-50 year olds now and make those UK citizens wait. I've posted my 10 reasons why they can't and won't before, so I won't bore anyone with it again.

There’s a bit of info in this article about Canada and New Zealand’s covax allocations www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/feb/03/canada-to-receive-significant-haul-of-covid-vaccines

It seems Canada despite their large order numbers are worried about speed of receiving it, maybe similar for NZ?
www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-55932997

Thanks @lurker101. It's a bit ropy really, why couldn't Canada and New Zealand expend some effort in the last year to set up some facilities and start manufacture? I'd have more sympathy if they were going to contribute later but still setting up.

Yeah I fully agree. Thank goodness other countries invested, and that AZ have licensed for SII to produce at additional capacity. Some really questionable decisions, especially considering NZ will have next to zero immunity for reopening internationally, so will be even more dependent on vaccination than some other countries. That’s before we even go on to think about vaccine tourism.

Thanks @lurker101. It's a bit ropy really, why couldn't Canada and New Zealand expend some effort in the last year to set up some facilities and start manufacture? I'd have more sympathy if they were going to contribute later but still setting up

Because you don't penalise the people for the bad decisions of their leaders, although every country setting up production would not necessarily have made sense, it just moves the pinch points to the next part of the supply chain, and it's very likely that the drug company partners aren't in a position to support building 50 plants at the same time at the same speed as building 5.

NZ is more weird as they have a sound mitigation strategy in place, so can wait longer, but Canada has a bigger problem to stop it spreading with their vaccinated neighbours.

Remember volumes need to go via population at risk, not population as a whole, and it's very biased towards old population, but of course Brazil and Nigeria are covered with those.

@MRex

Thanks *@lurker101*. It's a bit ropy really, why couldn't Canada and New Zealand expend some effort in the last year to set up some facilities and start manufacture? I'd have more sympathy if they were going to contribute later but still setting up.

In Canada's defence I understand they have built facilities and have been in talks with pharma companies to try and get them to start producing in Canada. They have signed an agreement with Novavax but I don't think their vaccine is approved yet.

I don't know why AZ/Pfizer or any of the others haven't decided to produce in Canada but unless Canada successfully produces a vaccine of it's own they can only produce it if one of the successful companies agrees. I don't know if any Canadian company has tried to produce it's own vaccine but I can't see why companies wouldn't use facilities there but at the same time Canadians can't force them to.

I don't know anything about NZ but have family connections with Canada.