Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks. That Guardian article is interesting.

Here's a probable answer to why we're suddenly seeing more of the Kent variant::

Dr Duncan Robertson, a disease modeller at Loughborough University, believes we are in "essentially a new epidemic". "This is the first time we are lifting restrictions with the new variant - it could take off and those areas with the lowest vaccination rates will be vulnerable."

from this BBC article about a possible "third wave", which has lots of helpful graphs, charts etc:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56529712

It's worrying, how quickly the vaccine take up rate falls as we go down through the age groups.

But the ONS are saying that 94% of people here have either had or will have a covid vaccination when invited.

Surely 94% vaccine confidence in a population is as good as anyone could expect?

@JanFebAnyMonth

It's worrying, how quickly the vaccine take up rate falls as we go down through the age groups.

I think that's mainly because not all have been offered in the under 60s age groups in all areas - some are still working though the 50 somethings. Polling suggests they'll be slightly lower uptake in the young, but not dramatically.

Ah yes you're probably right @Firefliess !

@lonelyplanet I think the Kent strain is now reckoned to be the dominant one throughout the UK. So an increase in Kent strain found via sequencing is almost certain to be down to increased rates of sequencing (rather than spread of the Kent strain in any particular age group)

[quote Firefliess]@lonelyplanet I think the Kent strain is now reckoned to be the dominant one throughout the UK. So an increase in Kent strain found via sequencing is almost certain to be down to increased rates of sequencing (rather than spread of the Kent strain in any particular age group)[/quote]
Plus increased rates of testing, which happens to be in children, who are proportionally more susceptible to the Kent variant than the old version(s).

The vax chart on bbc is interesting.
25% of 30-40yo women vaxxed. Which seems very high for just cev/cv and care/hcp.

Yes it does @HSHorror. Be interesting to know that personal/work reasons split, presumably many more fall into the second category.

And perhaps that factor (caters/HCP) explains the widening gap between the sexes' take-up in the younger age groups too.

Apparently gestational diabetes was added as a condition for group 6 - this could be inflating the 30-40 women eligible?

a disease modeller at Loughborough University

Love to see a disease modeller explain how badly they've done in all their previous published modelling to explain why their new modelling will be more accurate this time?

BTW, I will no longer accept a vaccine if offered until I know that vaccine passports will not happen, I will use my privilege to support people denied access to things due to vaccination status. As I've said before I was already annoyed at greed of vaccinating people with essentially no risk from covid ahead of high risk individuals overseas.

@HSHorror

The vax chart on bbc is interesting. 25% of 30-40yo women vaxxed. Which seems very high for just cev/cv and care/hcp.

Do you think? Given the amount of women who work in care/healthcare roles and generally take up care needs in families (children/parents) I wouldn’t have been surprised if that was a little higher tbh. Maybe my perception is off though, I haven’t got figures to back up that notion.

@HSHorror

The vax chart on bbc is interesting. 25% of 30-40yo women vaxxed. Which seems very high for just cev/cv and care/hcp.

Doesn't seem so surprising to me. I'm sure that about half the women I know (30/40s) seem to be vaccinated - mostly as HCPs (which include a social worker, teacher at a boarding school, genetic counselor, nurse, pharmacy assistant). Unpaid carers are usually women, some in this age group.

"BTW, I will no longer accept a vaccine if offered"

happy not to protect those who cant have a vaccine, happy to encourage the spread of covid to those where the vaccine doesnt work, happy to increase the chance of dangerous variants that will then, because the UK is not self sufficient, be transmitted to unprotected countries.

@MRex

That's weird news *@ancientgran*, keep us updated!

They've done so well, all from one woman deciding it was needed and everyone agreeing, and just getting on with it. This is an interesting article on UK genome testing in general: cen.acs.org/analytical-chemistry/sequencing/200000-counting-UK-sequenced-cases/99/web/2021/02.
And this: theconversation.com/qanda-with-sharon-peacock-coronavirus-variant-hunter-154808.
This is her letter about what they've achieved and the next 12 months: www.cogconsortium.uk/an-open-letter-to-the-cog-uk-consortium/. Interestingly they are handing over to become a permanent "national, public health-led sequencing network", with public health and government taking over in the next 6 months and loads of funding bits have already been given for IT storage upgrades etc.

But sorry, I can't find the article. I did find that India has found a more infectious variant including an E484Q (presumably not much different than K etc). So you know, joy.

Thanks for these interesting articles. I've only just had time to read them.

@HSHorror

The vax chart on bbc is interesting. 25% of 30-40yo women vaxxed. Which seems very high for just cev/cv and care/hcp.

I can believe this. Loads of women about my age (late 30s/early 40s) are HCPs or care workers. And lots of others are CEV.

I meant Lots of women I KNOW! Obviously lots of women are

@sirfredfredgeorge As I've said before I was already annoyed at greed of vaccinating people with essentially no risk from covid ahead of high risk individuals overseas. I was thinking about this earlier today, heard someone on TV talking about if the EU stops vaccines coming here and that they'd be killing people. I did think of the maybe 80 year old in the EU with no vaccine and rising numbers and us getting down to people with very low risk and lower numbers. Judgement of Solomon moment.

I've had the vaccine as a carer of nearly 70 so I don't suppose I'm entitled to judge.

@HSHorror

The vax chart on bbc is interesting. 25% of 30-40yo women vaxxed. Which seems very high for just cev/cv and care/hcp.

My three DsIL have all had the jab, 1 in her 20s, 2 late 30s. Two are HCP and one in social work. Also at work (care home) lots of under 50s vaccinated so it doesn't seem surprising to me. I suppose it depends on who you know/where you work.

I was wondering, if the Kent variant is now the dominant strain and likely has been for a few months, is the data not suggesting that the vaccines are still incredibly effective against this particular variant, given hospitalisation and death rates are plummeting?

@HSHorror

The vax chart on bbc is interesting. 25% of 30-40yo women vaxxed. Which seems very high for just cev/cv and care/hcp.

I'm in this age range and I'm not surprised, as it feels like every day one or two friends my age are posting their vaccination card/sticker on Facebook... None of them are HCP/carers, though, and none have been shielding during the pandemic. Of those who've mentioned the reasons or said they're not sure why they were invited early, some have had it due to high BMI, some due to a previous mental health diagnosis or other health issues that don't actually fall into the categories officially mentioned. Lots of others in the 40-45 bracket locally also got invited early because apparently at least one GP surgery here is getting through everyone quickly.

Doesn't make me feel any better though, as one of the few who hasn't been vaccinated and has to wait until May/June/July/whenever.

is the data not suggesting that the vaccines are still incredibly effective against this particular variant

Unfortunately until restrictions are lessened, we cannot exclude the fact that simply vulnerable groups are being protected by the restrictions (and we know they weren't previously but a lot of lessons learnt in protecting vulnerable groups in hospitals/care homes perhaps) so we can't say absolutely for sure as there are alternative hypothesis which fit the data.

But of course yes you're almost certainly right.

Oh and one friend had it as she's a counsellor in private practice and the British Association for Counselling & Psychotherapy managed to arrange early vaccinations for their members as part of the health/care sector.

@sirfredfredgeorge

a disease modeller at Loughborough University

Love to see a disease modeller explain how badly they've done in all their previous published modelling to explain why their new modelling will be more accurate this time?

BTW, I will no longer accept a vaccine if offered until I know that vaccine passports will not happen, I will use my privilege to support people denied access to things due to vaccination status. As I've said before I was already annoyed at greed of vaccinating people with essentially no risk from covid ahead of high risk individuals overseas.

I don't get this. Why wouldn't you get vaccinated but refuse to show proof? Then you protect all parties you're interested in.