Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@HSHorror

The vax chart on bbc is interesting. 25% of 30-40yo women vaxxed. Which seems very high for just cev/cv and care/hcp.

I can believe that too. I’m early thirties and vaccinated as a carer for my grandad. Lots of my friends are also vaccinated as they are either NHS, CV or got on the spare vaccines as are teachers or police.

@MRex, I understand why people would be uncomfortable about this, but it's a strange way of protesting.

It's like people who do believe in wearing masks deciding not to wear masks only once they became mandatory.

I don't get this. Why wouldn't you get vaccinated but refuse to show proof? Then you protect all parties you're interested in

It doesn't protect the person overseas who would've got a dose earlier, so it provides me more reason not to take it from those.

But in any case because of my privilege I am very unlikely to ever be challenged, that's the whole point on requiring ID, it's used as a stick to beat marginalised groups, by having a vaccine and an app or whatever I am underwriting the system I disagree with. I would need to have the vaccine outside of the system to achieve your goals.

anecdata alert most of the volunteers at the vaccination centre i helped at were women - a mix of ages from about 20-60. We all got given a vaccine, so if that pattern holds then that could also explain the uptake

@Bordois same experience at the ones I’ve helped at. A scheme for furloughed retail, airline and hospitality workers has been operating where they get shifts to volunteer at the centres. Since these industries are quite skewed to younger people, particularly women this would also have an impact.

I don’t want to offend you @sirfredfredgeorge but it does seem like an empty gesture that doesn’t mean much and actually is potentially very harmful to those in your immediate/wider community (some of who will be vulnerable health wise or economically).

I get the point that poorer nations need help with access to vaccines but I don’t think declining one already purchased and issued within the UK does much. It’s a bit like refusing to drink tap water until everybody globally has access to clean water. It doesn’t achieve much.

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of getting vaccinated in the UK while we're ahead of other countries, I do wonder what impact the threat of vaccine passports might have on uptake. The press yesterday we speculating that if pubs started requiring passports that might incentivise some people to get them. I'm sure it might, but my only friend who intends not to get the jab has given me similar reasons to @sirfredfredgeorge - that she wants to express solidarity with those who can't have the jab or choose not to in the face of vaccine passports being brought in, which she feels are an affront to civil liberties. Requiring passports could therefore work both ways, and with the latest ONS polling suggesting 94% of adults currently intend to get the vaccine, we've not much more room to improve and potentially a lot to lose if it goes the wrong way. I think the government is wise to be cautious on this one and try to get as many as possible vaccinated first, while the focus is on shortages and who should get priority. Once the discussion shifts to coercion, that could backfire and fuel people into opposition because they don't like being coerced, or it makes them suspicious.

If anyone feels guilty about having a vaccine a better way to express that would be to donate directly to Gavi www.gavi.org/covax-facility

6187 cases, 70 deaths. We have a case increase.

Yes, the first case increase in a while. Frustrating to see but not necessarily indicative of a longer term trend in increases. The lower the cases we have the more "noise" there will be which could mean we see occasional increases within an overall downwards trend. Only time will tell...

Hospital admissions continue to fall

with all the LTFs happening and not that may of them being confirmed I''m not convinced yet that there is an actual case increase but it's clear that the situation is broadly static and perhaps moving towards a modest increase.

Hopefully as the vaccination effort continues there will be more emphasis on hospitalisations and deaths rather than raw case numbers .

We're already at 55% of adults / 43% of population, with natural immunity on top. Transmission is likely to start to be affected soon, at least in some areas.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Hospital admissions continue to fall

This is the important metric to watch

Cases will rise but I don’t see that is necessarily unexpected or will cause an issue with plan to open

Have they increased though? If you look by date reported they have, but not by specimen dates? There was only 1 day within the last 7 that the number was higher than last week.

[quote alreadytaken]If anyone feels guilty about having a vaccine a better way to express that would be to donate directly to Gavi www.gavi.org/covax-facility[/quote]
Great idea.

I popped this on another thread, it is hidden at the bottom of the OurWorldinData stats:

Vaccination against COVID-19 has now started in 148 locations, covering 90% of the world population

The problem with watching hospital admissions first, is hospital admissions will rise later-approximately 10 days later, I think is the typical hospital admission.

I think they're both important to watch.

24/03/2021 5621 vs 5915 a week before
23/03/2021 5461 vs 5794
22/03/2021 6390 vs 6663
21/03/2021 5436 vs 4373
20/03/2021 4072 vs 4268
19/03/2021 5064 vs 5696
18/03/2021 5600 vs 5905
17/03/2021 5915 vs 6166

So consistently about 200-300 less apart from 21st vs 14th

@MargaretThursday

The problem with watching hospital admissions first, is hospital admissions will rise later-approximately 10 days later, I think is the typical hospital admission.

I think they're both important to watch.

Yes this.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Hospital admissions continue to fall

So heartening to see - NI have had 47 confirmed covid admissions in the last 7 days (down from 72 prior week and a whopping peak of 109 in one day on 8 Jan!) Number in hospital has also dropped by 46 to 143 over the last 7 days with “only” 4 sadly being deaths. Quickly moving in the right direction

“Only” feels wrong, but you understand the sentiment

@MargaretThursday

The problem with watching hospital admissions first, is hospital admissions will rise later-approximately 10 days later, I think is the typical hospital admission.

I think they're both important to watch.

Yes you can watch both but hopefully vaccine will mean we start to see different pattern emerging where case rising does not mean same issue with NHS capacity

We had to react to cases because NHS being overwhelmed was the next step

At some point we have to move from being so worried about cases

They will rise. It’s not unexpected or necessarily too concerning.

At some point I assume releasing case numbers, or even counting them will stop.

Yes this

Why do say think this? Cases are not a condition for next steps, as they used to be.

What are the four tests for easing restrictions?

The coronavirus vaccine programme continues to go to plan

Vaccines are sufficiently reducing the number of people dying or needing hospital treatment

Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions

New coronavirus variants do not fundamentally change the risk of lifting restrictions

But they haven't even risen. It's 37664 this week vs 38614 last week. By specimen date. Still 1k lower.

But yes, I do agree that cases rising would only be a concern if it translated into more people in hospitals. A lot of the cases now are asymptomatic, so something that wouldn't have even been picked up before.

As this purports to be a data and analysis thread perhaps a more measured look at the cases increase might be merited.

I award myself snippiest post of the day 🥇

What was happening last week? Or is that a bit too far back in time to remember? Reporting delays in England, particularly the North West.

Looking at the specimen dates

Thursday 25th

First day of reporting 1695 cases, up 3% as compared with equivalent last week.

Wednesday 24th

Second day of reporting, 2902 cases added, taking total to 4844. 39% higher than equivalent last week.

Except at this point last week we had some reporting delays. So not a like for like comparison. Last Wednesday spec date then had another 1383 cases added on the third and fourth day of reporting. Very unlikely we will see that this week.

Reality though is that the 24th if we do a rough adjustment to last week’s delays is probably still up a a few hundred cases.

tuesday 23rd

459 cases added today, total now 4558, essentially flat, 0.6% lower to be strictly accurate.

Monday 22nd

fourth day of reporting, 119 cases added taking total to 5331. 3.4% lower than equivalent last week.

From Monday overall 16428 cases added in England as opposed to 15232 last week. Adjusting for the delayed reporting it is more like 16428 plays c.16000. So a slight upward trajectory.

Schools where I am don’t finish for Easter until next Thursday, but I’m assuming quite a number of areas finish today.