Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

*positive LFT not produce

I would assume it would count as a false positive only if they got a positive LFD and a negative PCR.

People who think they are positive, either due to already being a contact or having symptoms, I would suspect would be less likely to do a confirming test and accept the LFD. I know I would. It would seem a little positives.
I would be far more likely to retest if I thought I might get a different result.

Maybe they should automatically send a PCR test to anyone who gets a LFD test?

a little pointless, not positive!

If you know you've all been exposed and then 3 of you in the house all get a produce LFT then you'll just accept it rather than go for a confirmation test

If you're testing twice a week though, I think it's unlikely that you'd all test positive on the same first test, as it would mean you all had to have acquired from a 3rd party, and that means you'd have to be pretty rule breaking - and the rule breakers aren't testing twice a week. Otherwise it would just be the index case - even if all of you caught it in any case.

(and of course the LFD's only pick up maybe 50% of positive cases anyway, so more unlikely for everyone in the house to test positive at the same time)

Is there anyone here who works with vaccs or in a GP office?

So, double England hospital data today.

Big falls: 256 and 240. Making it 12.7% for the week (Sat to Sat), three big fall days to go.

At current rate looking at 25-30%, but at this stage anything 20% plus is amazing.

I think we might just hit 2800 in hospital U.K. wide by 12th April. This was the number on “Independence Day” last July, when a multitude of restrictions were lifted.

Broken record I know. But we really need to wake up to the fact that the battle is won, even if the war isn’t.

@Doomsdayiscoming

So, double England hospital data today.

Big falls: 256 and 240. Making it 12.7% for the week (Sat to Sat), three big fall days to go.

At current rate looking at 25-30%, but at this stage anything 20% plus is amazing.

I think we might just hit 2800 in hospital U.K. wide by 12th April. This was the number on “Independence Day” last July, when a multitude of restrictions were lifted.

Broken record I know. But we really need to wake up to the fact that the battle is won, even if the war isn’t.

Oh and, fairly good news, sub 5k in hospital in the U.K. now. (Roughly 4800).

Fewer care home staff have had vaccines than any other priority group. As at 14 March, about 76% of eligible care home staff in England have had the vaccine, compared with 97% of healthcare staff.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55718553

I appreciate the main issue is about unequal distribution, so some areas have very high take-up and others it's still more like 50-60%. That said, 76% actually seems really high to me, especially given we are at the stay where some hesitant people may just want another month or two to get comfortable with the idea. At full population level, 76% should easily be herd immunity.

At full population level, 76% should easily be herd immunity

I don't think it is quite since the increase in R from the B117, but it's way more than enough that very basic measures will keep it below.

John Deeks et al's latest review of LFT studies

www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013705.pub2/full

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]John Deeks et al's latest review of LFT studies

www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013705.pub2/full[/quote]
Key sentence being, I think -

"At 0.5% prevalence applying the same tests in asymptomatic people would result in PPVs of 11% to 28% meaning that between 7 in 10 and 9 in 10 positive results will be false positives, and between 1 in 2 and 1 in 3 cases will be missed."

which suggests a massive 70%-90% of LFT positives are wrong, and we are also missing between 33% and 50% of real cases.

Which supports backing up a positive LFT with a PCR. At face value so far our data suggests that 35% ish of positive LFTs are being confirmed by PCR, but of course that doesn't mean the other 65% are confirmed as negative, it could be that people haven't bothered to do a PCR (as it's only in the past week that significant numbers have been encouraged to do so through the schools plan).

So we are, possibly, identifying 50% of schools asymptomatic cases in the current programme but also identifying thousands of false positives.

I don't think there's any chance that we know the number of tests being done, it seems pretty clear loads of people aren't recording them, and certainly the numbers being recorded and the claimed take-up by individuals is nothing like the same ball-park.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I don't think there's any chance that we know the number of tests being done, it seems pretty clear loads of people aren't recording them, and certainly the numbers being recorded and the claimed take-up by individuals is nothing like the same ball-park.

Very true. In fact my kids both did one yesterday, DS immediately logged on to report it and DD (different schools) just said errrr I don't know how to do that...

@sirfredfredgeorge

I don't think there's any chance that we know the number of tests being done, it seems pretty clear loads of people aren't recording them, and certainly the numbers being recorded and the claimed take-up by individuals is nothing like the same ball-park.

Yes. My dc did their tests this morning. I checked them before we left, chucked them in the bin and took them to school a little late as we had to wait 30 minutes for the result. Got home, sat down and remembered that I hadn't registered them, so had to pull them out of the bin. But shows how easily, even with the best of intentions, it can be missed.

We got two negatives. In this case two negatives don't make a positive.

The weekly surveillance report is out, figures look late so interim reading material: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.

Here's a delightful sentence to read: "In the 70-84 age group age group around 83.5% had antibodies from either infection or vaccination compared to 5.8% from infection alone."

[quote MRex]The weekly surveillance report is out, figures look late so interim reading material: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.[/quote]
Thanks for that. The data in the location of outbreaks in interesting - looks like outbreaks in care homes have fallen dramatically, despite the occasional one still hitting the headlines (and probably the reason why they are now headline worthy) Outbreaks in schools increasing - which is to be expected given they're now fully open, but much lower numbers than in the autumn.

CNBC just reported that Pfizer has dosed first under 12s as part of their trial 6m-11 yes following “good data” from 12-15yr olds and expect to share this data soon.

Dashboard late again today?

On yesterday's figures we reached the point where the UK has given second doses to a higher percentage than France. In 2-3 days the second doses can be expected to exceed Germany's percentage.

@MRex

Here's a delightful sentence to read: "In the 70-84 age group age group around 83.5% had antibodies from either infection or vaccination compared to 5.8% from infection alone."

Incredible

63 deaths

PHE tweet- dashboard delayed, 6397 cases, 63 deaths

Yup that's the weekly average up, I am sure. Opening the schools will do that......