Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Not everyone can go to a physical test centre though. So if you got a positive LFT on Sunday, and ordered a postal PCR test then it would take a couple of days to be received and posted back again so could be up to 3 days before result. Hence why they match for any PCR taken within 3 days of an LFT

Are you sure?

My understanding is that all the people who have been told to SI as contacts stay SId no matter what.

Next week is holidays anyway.

We closed our whole sixth form down so can't really bring them back!!

Yes, Schools would not have opened on the sunday for samples surely, the vast majority of those must be home tests?

A number walk in centre of course, we don't know how many, but I can't imagine there'd be more of those on a sunday than any other day, so the excess to the normal must be home tests surely?

I agree that not everyone can ceeveebee, but remember the assertion was that false positives are okay because you wouldn't be isolating someone and all their contacts for long, it appears that's not the case.

Have to be honest, the whole schol thing is a mess.

Saying the PCR brings back in the positive case (if negative) is great for that child 9and family) but in the meantime, school staff have run about like blue arsed flies tracing, isolating, contacting, dealing with bus companies. PHE, LAs. It is shameful really. Sorry : politics.

I also want to know now whether the poor school deputy head has to contact all the isolaters and tell them 'never mind, as you were'?!

I also want to know now whether the poor school deputy head has to contact all the isolaters and tell them 'never mind, as you were'?!

Yep the delegation of track & trace responsibility to them does mean they do.

Unfortunately though we don't actually know, and the dashboard is designed to hide how many false positives there are, it may be a red-herring if there aren't any.

God, I genuinely wouldn't blame school leaders if they just walked out. Some have.

I don't think that numbers can be written off as false positives on the LFD tests.
You would expect similar numbers of false positives with similar number of lateral flow tests.

Look at these dates a week apart, with the number of tests (approx) and the number tests not confirmed with a PCR, then number confirmed.
8th March: 1 500 000 tests (approx) 837 positives: 419 confirmed
15th March: 1 514 000 tests (approx) 915 positives: 554 confirmed
22nd March 1 067 000 tests (approx) 1595 positives: 85 confirmed

Now if you assume that all the 837 positives on 8th March were false positives then that's approximately 0.055% false positives.
For 22nd March 0.055% gives approximately 595 false positives. So 1k. over that.
So I think there could be a tentative conclusion from that, that there has been some spread in school. However, hopefully the LFD tests will have removed a good number from the schools before they spread it, hopefully slowing the spread down to a level where it doesn't get out of control again.

It does seem odd that such a lot of the 22nd haven't been confirmed. It would be interesting to know how many people are going for the PCR test. I wonder if a fair number haven't bothered because either they know someone has already tested positive of their contacts (which must reduce the likelihood of a false positive, plus they already have to isolate) or they're thinking that by the time they've got a result, it'll be pretty much the end of term-ours finish next Tuesday.

Picture this : JS in my year 12 is SI because of contact with 3 separate LFT positives. 2 of them then get all clear form PCRs. Someone has to figure out that ridiculous venn diagram. Easy to make a mistake...

Don't forget the app too : that is not supposed to be overruled. It instructed 70 of our sixth form (and 5 staff) to SI based on their LFT positives.

@Piggywaspushed

Are you sure?

My understanding is that all the people who have been told to SI as contacts stay SId no matter what.

Next week is holidays anyway.

We closed our whole sixth form down so can't really bring them back!!

dfemedia.blog.gov.uk/2021/03/09/covid-testing-in-schools-who-will-get-tested-how-and-where-will-they-be-tested-who-has-to-isolate-after-a-positive-test-these-questions-and-more-answered/

All pupils, staff, and their households who take their tests at home should report the results by calling 119 or through the online form.

Because tests taken at home are unsupervised, if a pupil, member of staff or a member of their household gets a positive result at home they should report the result and arrange to have a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test by following this link.

In the event that the PCR test is negative – that they do not have Covid 19 – this overrides the lateral flow test if it was taken at home and they should therefore return to school.

Yes, I know that bit : but see my posts above about those instructed to SI as contacts!

Agree we should have a column for “LFD that was PCR negative”
Then we would know how many are due to a failure to confirm and how many are false positive. We just don’t know either way at the moment

You would expect similar numbers of false positives with similar number of lateral flow tests

Except, the LFD's on normal days are test-centre ones, these are more accurate in all validation, they are also a different community (people concerned they may have been in contact hence higher risk than everyone) the home "school" tests done are different.

So I don't agree that the group is the same, not having ones taken in a test centre confirmed is what we expect - hence the "unconfirmed != false positive" is fine, but that doesn't mean excess home tests shouldn't be confirmed. Let's be clear, the walk in centres did not have the capability for any where near the 1.5 million tests done on sunday, they must be home tests.

If the false positive rate is that low, it'll be trivial to report, why is it not being?

Piece on R4 PM about the 1000s of patients who were ambulanced to other hospitals in Jan, which we knew about to, some extent. Remember there were also reports of IC nurses who are usually 1:1 with patients, having to care for 2 or possibly even 3 patients at once? And there was a research article from somewhere (can't remember if it was UK) about the effect this was having on ICU death rates.

The R4 report said that, in some (isolated?) cases,,the nurses were assigned to 3, 4 or even 5 patients at once.

I wish we'd been given a definition of what the NHS being overwhelmed actually meant.....

Not all non-school LFDs are test centre ones. NHS staff, teachers, council workers etc have been testing themselves at home as well

@sirfredfredgeorge am not sure what you mean by "normal days": millions of pupils, school staff and their households are expected to test twice weekly until at least 19 April. This is the 'new normal' test-wise.

it really is bewildering with the LFTs in the mix.
I am guessing during the holidays a lot less will be done (or at least logged). Will be interesting to see how that pans out.
Have schools told kids todo them over the holidays? As a parent I will probably keep doing mine but that's different to getting a teenager to do it

Yes @Frazzled2207: the DfE guidance only changed to doing them twice weekly through the holidays (as opposed to just one test the night before return) last week. So schools should have updated parents and given out extra test kits, but I imagine the message is at best blurred!

only 7 million tests last week, not that many people who've been asked to do them are bothering to log, even if they're doing them.

@sirfredfredgeorge

only 7 million tests last week, not that many people who've been asked to do them are bothering to log, even if they're doing them.

I count myself as one who can’t be bothered to log. I would if I got a positive though

This is the 'new normal' test-wise

Yes, but that would've been the first day in the stats would be last sunday, as previous to that those kids would've been having the tests in their schools, so the first mass home test day would be then. So I was talking about the comparison with the previous normal when those kids tests were not confirmed by PCR at all.

I'm logging DD's, additionally we have to log them with school too! They have issued a timetable for which day each year does them, and you have to report back to school to confirm test has been done and the result.

Ah OK I get you sirfred.

@Frazzled2207

it really is bewildering with the LFTs in the mix. I am guessing during the holidays a lot less will be done (or at least logged). Will be interesting to see how that pans out. Have schools told kids todo them over the holidays? As a parent I will probably keep doing mine but that's different to getting a teenager to do it

I got an email from DD's sixth form college today saying that they now have enough tests so that the students can test themselves twice a week over the Easter holidays and to collect the tests from class tomorrow. We try to do them as a family all at the same time, which has worked ok so far.

@ceeveebee

Agree we should have a column for “LFD that was PCR negative” Then we would know how many are due to a failure to confirm and how many are false positive. We just don’t know either way at the moment

I guess one issue with this is that the unconfirmed are the most likely to be positive. If you know you've all been exposed and then 3 of you in the house all get a produce LFT then you'll just accept it rather than go for a confirmation test. If you're in a low case area and your DC is the only one with a positive LFT then you'd be more likely to assume it's wrong and go for a PCR to confirm. Which is correct in both cases, but would make LFT false positives look higher in the stats than they are, and we can all imagine how that would play out in social media posts (E.g. "HALF were false positive"... But maybe it's half of 5% of cases and actually all of them, therefore only 2.5%).