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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

982 replies

boys3 · 17/03/2021 18:25

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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89
MRex · 23/03/2021 22:48

@Doomsdayiscoming - that's interesting. Did you do any offset for time from infection to hospitalisation? Do you have humidity that you could plot against that?

Firefliess · 23/03/2021 23:28

Exclusive: Children in line for Covid vaccines from August

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/23/exclusive-children-line-covid-vaccines-august/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_Aw3SDXQRqSVx

Telegraph saying there's plans to vaccinate kids from August. That'll help a lot with reaching herd immunity, as well as hopefully paving the way to a less disrupted school system next year.

Doomsdayiscoming · 24/03/2021 06:34

@JanFebAnyMonth

Just a minute though, that graph shows admissions rising with the temperature, that's the opposite *@Doomsdayiscoming* .
Ah! Sorry my bad. My axis is labelled poorly/wrong.

It is a weekly rolling average of the percentage reduction in admissions. So 20% is 20% less, etc.

Doomsdayiscoming · 24/03/2021 06:40

[quote MRex]@Doomsdayiscoming - that's interesting. Did you do any offset for time from infection to hospitalisation? Do you have humidity that you could plot against that?[/quote]
Hi MRex.

That is much harder to calculate. What I propose here isn’t so much to do with the levels of covid/spread etc. It is how those with covid at the time of the colder weather are able to cope. It is possible to spot short term effects like this as the lag is very short (it seems, days to a week), from the cold weather to seeing a decrease in the reduction of patients being admitted.

Longer term effects of weather/season are much harder to ascertain IMO, as you are looking at a longer period of time, and as we all know there are so many variables that can leader to cases rising/falling, it becomes a minefield to interpret.

Humidity again, I assume you mean in terms of transmission, but no I haven’t looked into that.

MRex · 24/03/2021 07:08

Thanks @Firefliess, it's interesting to have August as the suggested timeframe. They don't say if there will be age restrictions, I think Oxford are only testing down to age 6?

@Doomsdayiscoming - ah, I think I'd misunderstood your point, that cold weather literally makes the disease progress more aggressively for people. Maybe. I don't know what could cause that, not ventilating rooms? There could also be other hidden weather correlations.

Bordois · 24/03/2021 07:16

@MarshaBradyo

I’ve just read a comment that the decrease in hospitalisation is due to lockdown

It’s more than that isn’t it? How about effect of vaccine? Is there any data on this, it would be great if there is

I saw a graph on twitter that showed to drop in hospitalisation was greater in 60+ then in younger age groups that implied the vaccine effect was kicking in. I will try to find it again
Bordois · 24/03/2021 07:19

This was from February

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March
Doomsdayiscoming · 24/03/2021 07:42

@MRex

Thanks *@Firefliess*, it's interesting to have August as the suggested timeframe. They don't say if there will be age restrictions, I think Oxford are only testing down to age 6?

@Doomsdayiscoming - ah, I think I'd misunderstood your point, that cold weather literally makes the disease progress more aggressively for people. Maybe. I don't know what could cause that, not ventilating rooms? There could also be other hidden weather correlations.

Yeah, I cannot say for certain.

All I know is that if I was given covid in the midst of winter in a poorly heated house (Hi U.K.) versus being given covid on the beach in south of France in May (not too hot, I’m still British), then I know which would result in a better outcome!

Frazzled2207 · 24/03/2021 08:07

@Firefliess
Interesting re kids. My own will be first in the queue! However I would have thought it most efficient to go round the schools in the early autumn to get kids done. Less faff all round. My kids are far less likely to play up if having it with their friends all together

Firefliess · 24/03/2021 08:21

[quote Frazzled2207]@Firefliess
Interesting re kids. My own will be first in the queue! However I would have thought it most efficient to go round the schools in the early autumn to get kids done. Less faff all round. My kids are far less likely to play up if having it with their friends all together[/quote]
That's an interesting point. You're right that vaccination in school has been shown to be a good was to get high uptake amongst kids.

DD (17) is desperate to be jabbed as she's afraid of being barred from things she wants to do (travel, festivals sneaking in underage to nightclubs) if she's not. We're hoping they'll save enough of the Pfizer vaccine (already licenced down to 16) to do the 16/17 year olds at the end of the adult queue. They're an age group most likely to be catching germs of each other, so less protected than younger kids indirectly via their parents being done, at least once we get to the school holidays. So I guess they could do the 16/17 year olds in August, and then crack though under 16s via a schools programme.

Frazzled2207 · 24/03/2021 08:42

@Firefliess
Agree entirely. 16-17 should be prioritised IMO and then work downwards from there.

I really hope though that under 18s are not barred from doing things this summer just on account on not having been vaccinated. Hardly their fault!

Firefliess · 24/03/2021 08:44

[quote Frazzled2207]@Firefliess
Agree entirely. 16-17 should be prioritised IMO and then work downwards from there.

I really hope though that under 18s are not barred from doing things this summer just on account on not having been vaccinated. Hardly their fault![/quote]
Me too. I don't think they're likely to be barred from places where kids go a lot, as that would be obviously really unfair. Places that are mostly adult only already would seem more likely

lurker101 · 24/03/2021 08:58

@MRex Moderna have started trials on over 6 months old following their trials in older children

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56422415

mumsneedwine · 24/03/2021 09:04

But but but how can they just go round schools and vaccinate. Because if it was that easy surely they could have done that with staff ? And that is apparently far too complicated and difficult.
Seriously I do hope kids get it before the end of the year. Let's hope the vaccine roll out continues apace even with the EU willy wanging. 🤞

MRex · 24/03/2021 09:13

School vaccination might be good for secondary school, but little ones like mine definitely can't be done at nursery, that's not fair to staff nor kids. I'd certainly refuse and try the GP.

ceeveebee · 24/03/2021 09:33

@MRex I agree - whilst primary children currently get the flu vaccination at school, this is a nasal spray so very different to an actual jab in the arm.

ancientgran · 24/03/2021 09:36

I got my polio vaccination at school in the 50s. I was 4 I think but could have been 5. I remember us all being lined up, jumpers and shirts off so just vests on top. Horrible if you were near the end of the queue and you'd watched 70 or 80 kids getting it. I do remember the boys were the ones doing most of the screaming. Needles weren't the nice thin disposable ones they use now, big thick reusable ones that did really hurt. I honestly don't think they were using sterile needles, I think they just got dunked in surgical spirit.

Of course polio was a real killer or life changer for kids in the 50s and seeing kids in calipers wasn't unusual not to mention the news items with kids in iron lungs.

JanFebAnyMonth · 24/03/2021 09:40

More efficiency in doing at least secondary students in school as compared to doing staff - 1 visit = 1000+ vaccinated as opposed to 100+!

This thread is a good illustration of why we can no longer believe positivity rates:

Do I really have to keep logging my lateral flow tests? www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4200724-Do-I-really-have-to-keep-logging-my-lateral-flow-tests

Frazzled2207 · 24/03/2021 09:40

@mumsneedwine

But but but how can they just go round schools and vaccinate. Because if it was that easy surely they could have done that with staff ? And that is apparently far too complicated and difficult. Seriously I do hope kids get it before the end of the year. Let's hope the vaccine roll out continues apace even with the EU willy wanging. 🤞
Because rightly or wrongly teachers weren’t prioritised. At some point kids will be. And it’s not nearly as efficient going to jab say 20 teachers in a school as say 500.

I was jabbed at school several times as a child but thinking about it possibly not at primary.

MarshaBradyo · 24/03/2021 09:42

@Bordois

This was from February
Brilliant thanks Bordois

I can use this next time it comes up

mumsneedwine · 24/03/2021 10:01

@Frazzled2207 we have 272 staff in our school. Would face been v easy to do. But now we have 7 off isolating and 2 positive, and 125 students off too. It's going well this not vaccinating school staff.

Frazzled2207 · 24/03/2021 10:05

@mumsneedwine
I agree teachers should have been vaccinated. My point is it’s not surprising vaccination teams didn’t turn up at the school to vaccinate the staff given that they were never prioritised.
Whereas further down the line school kids will so I would expect mass vaccination at school will be at least considered if not actually implemented.

sirfredfredgeorge · 24/03/2021 10:12

But now we have 7 off isolating and 2 positive, and 125 students off too. It's going well this not vaccinating school staff.

The staff and students would still have had to isolate even if they'd been vaccinated, there was a chance that the two positive teachers would not have been positive so the situation would not have arisen but no guarantee.

Firefliess · 24/03/2021 10:27

@ancientgran I have similar memories for school based TB vaccination in about 1990 - everyone lined up with sleeves rolled up waiting anxiously, a few panicking or feeling faint and being pushed to the front to get it over with, those who'd been done first bragging and trying to wind up those of us still in the queue with horror stories...... I'm sure it was efficient, and good for getting kids done whose parents aren't opposed to vaccination but are a bit untogether and may fail to get them to a GP appointment. Not much fun for the kids though! Take the point that that was secondary age, and younger kids might need their parents with them for reassurance.

amicissimma · 24/03/2021 10:35

"All I know is that if I was given covid in the midst of winter in a poorly heated house (Hi U.K.) versus being given covid on the beach in south of France in May (not too hot, I’m still British), then I know which would result in a better outcome!"

That's interesting as on Sunday The Telegraph had an article saying that Dr Raghib Ali, a senior clinical research associate at Cambridge university's MRC Epidemiology Unit, " said Britain's relatively late lockdown meant more people were infected in the spring, when underlying pressure on the NHS was relatively light, meaning they were protected by antibodies come winter – when the service traditionally struggles to cope.

"Writing for The Telegraph, he that said that, in the absence of a vaccine, lockdowns postpone infections rather than prevent them, suggesting that March and April was a better period in which to catch the virus.
"[he] now argues that countries that locked down early effectively delayed part of their first wave until the winter, resulting in higher overall mortality."

Article here but it's behind a paywall.

I know it's not the same as your argument, but the two factors together: warmer weather (being outside more, higher vitamin D, feeling better) and a less-busy NHS, make me feel instinctively that I'd rather catch Covid (if I must) in the late spring/summer than late autumn winter.

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