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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

982 replies

boys3 · 17/03/2021 18:25

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
89
MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 17:39

I’ve just read a comment that the decrease in hospitalisation is due to lockdown

It’s more than that isn’t it? How about effect of vaccine? Is there any data on this, it would be great if there is

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/03/2021 17:56

The PCR cases reported today are all from tests processed yesterday I believe?

So 668 sampled and processed yesterday? That seems rather fast, implying lots of people are getting test results same day, but I thought it was "most people get the result the next day"

PatriciaHolm · 23/03/2021 17:59

@ceeveebee

The PCR cases reported today are all from tests processed yesterday I believe?
No, not necessarily. They are the results reported yesterday, which doesn't always mean processed, depending on when the reporting is done. And of course processed date isn't always the same as specimen date!
ceeveebee · 23/03/2021 18:08

Some pillar 1 results can be turned around within a few hours in hospital with their own lab.

ceeveebee · 23/03/2021 18:09

The point is that none of the tests processed today are in the figures, even if they were processed first thing the morning. According the the dashboard developer, the files are sent to the dashboard at 8am and it takes all day to de-dupe and process them. So would be unexpected for any of Sunday’s LFDs to be reported as confirmed PCRs today.

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/03/2021 18:16

So would be unexpected for any of Sunday’s LFDs to be reported as confirmed PCRs today

I can't agree with that, we know lots of PCRs were sampled on Monday and their results processed, so I think it's very reasonable to conclude at least some of those were from people who were testing because of a positive LFD that came on sunday as much as somone who got their symptoms on sunday. What we don't know are the relative numbers because we don't have the data on number of LFD's attempting to confirm and number which weren't confirmed.

MRex · 23/03/2021 18:19

@sirfredfredgeorge

The PCR cases reported today are all from tests processed yesterday I believe?

So 668 sampled and processed yesterday? That seems rather fast, implying lots of people are getting test results same day, but I thought it was "most people get the result the next day"

We had two tests for DS with results in under 24 hours, I think the shortest time I've seen mentioned on a thread was 13 hours. Hospitals might be faster in an emergency.
ceeveebee · 23/03/2021 18:20

I’m not sure I get your point. The dashboard shows that only 48 of the LFDs registered on Sunday have been confirmed? If any of the 668 PCRs on Monday 22nd related to a previous LFD they wouldn’t be shown in that column?

They may relate to unregistered LFDs but those wouldn’t be in the 2,201 figure at all?

MargaretThursday · 23/03/2021 18:48

I'd wonder how easily the results would be matched up.

If you get a positive, does the message suggest you confirm it with the PCR and give you a link to click on, for example?

What percentage of people know it's a good idea to confirm with a PCR-I suspect not as many as you would think. Several parents I've spoken to didn't know that, parents that are normally fairly on top of science advice.
And then add in those who won't bother for various reasons to confirm. Ones whose dc really hated doing the test, ones for whom they think isolating for 14 days is not too much of a problem, those who can't be bothered to go to a test site and don't realise you can order them online, those who have had contacts and know they already need to isolate for that time anyway.

I think if one of the dc (or me) was the only one I knew to get a positive LFD, then I'd probably retest. If there were known contacts then I'm not sure I'd bother. As with Piggy's school, if there's 12 positives in one group, the chance of all of them being false positives is tiny.

But I think with the LFDs the thing to look at is if the numbers of positives are increasing. If they're increasing, it's more likely to be increasing with infections than increasing with false positives.

Also I want to know what results in a false positive. It's a different matter if a false positive means an earlier infection, for example. If a false positive means that there was an earlier infection, then we would expect false positives to get fewer as we go along, assuming people don't retest after they've had a positive.
If it's contamination, or a problem on the test, then we'd expect similar numbers.
It's important to be looking at how the numbers change as much as absolute numbers becomes important.

PatriciaHolm · 23/03/2021 18:50

The 48 "LFDs with confirmed PCR" are for specimen date for the PCR, so I suspect few will relate to LFTs done the same day.

None of the 668 in the PCR only column should relate to an LFT, but that relies on people connecting the positive LFT with a positive PCR - I'm not sure how they do that, or how much scope there is not to. It may be that people are getting a PCR to confirm but are not connecting the two in the system.

So at present, in the data we have, there are basically no LFTs that were processed on Sunday that have been confirmed by PCR, as the "LFT confirmed by PCR" specimen date Monday is zero.

ceeveebee · 23/03/2021 18:59

Are you sure about that date point @PatriciaHolm?

The figures in those two LFD columns move between the two columns as the days tick on but always roughly add up to the original “unconfirmed LFD” figure for that specimen date. And the “about this data” says that the case will be reported on the date of their first positive test.

PatriciaHolm · 23/03/2021 19:14

@ceeveebee

Pouriaa answered this one specifically on Twitter yesterday and said that the date that stood was the PCR.

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/03/2021 19:17

Yeah, my understanding is like yours ceeveebee that the specimen date for the PCR confirming the LFT is the LFT date regardless of the actual date the PCR was sampled.

My query is about 2200 LFT's seemingly not being confirmed 48 hours after taking them, and wondering if that is because they weren't confirmed 'cos they weren't positive, or they were confirmed in a timely fashion but don't appear in todays report 'cos despite the individual hearing promptly they don't make the stats until longer, or if the individuals are still waiting for their test result, or if no-one is doing confirmatory testing.

ceeveebee · 23/03/2021 19:22

We shall see over the coming days, if the figure for 21 March continues to add up to the original 2,249 then I think that the question will be answered.

I would expect that we will see quite a lot of movement from the unconfirmed to confirmed now that secondary school testing is being done at home. I can’t think there will be many people who would choose to rely on an LFT and have to self isolate (and their class or contacts) if they have the choice of a PCR

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/03/2021 19:24

Ah, @PatriciaHolm he did.

So that's now more worrying, very low numbers of PCR confirmations, or very long delays, neither of those things are good, how bad they are need to know how many LFD's are not being confirmed to know if its a problem of the tests, or a problem of people not knowing to confirm.

PatriciaHolm · 23/03/2021 19:26

Here is the conversation yesterday with Pouriaa's answer.

I suspect the confusion comes from the fact the "home" LFTs don't "count", not quite in the same way that lab tests do. They are treated rather oddly in that they all appear in the data, but obviously can be overridden by a negative PCR so in terms of date, the actual date of positive is deemed now to be the confirmatory PCR, now we are at a point where we are doing 1.5m+ LFTs a day some days.

If someone has 2 positive PCRs, the first PCR is the date that counts.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March
MRex · 23/03/2021 19:33

Surely the original LFT should be get a new status "PCR negative LFT" or something.

Doomsdayiscoming · 23/03/2021 21:22

So, what’s everyone’s thoughts on weather/temperature on covid hospitalisations? A pretty obvious contributing factor?

Here’s a graph I made cos bored.

I think it’s quite neat.

(Method; took 7 day rolling average of admission in England, and 7 day rolling average of London day time high - couldn’t find an England average, plotted against date).

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March
Doomsdayiscoming · 23/03/2021 21:23

How do I post a picture? Really struggling.

Doomsdayiscoming · 23/03/2021 21:23

My dial up kicked in!

JanFebAnyMonth · 23/03/2021 22:17

Why is there such correlation?? Not obvious to me at all!

Doomsdayiscoming · 23/03/2021 22:22

@JanFebAnyMonth

Why is there such correlation?? Not obvious to me at all!
I assume (I’m not medically trained) respiratory conditions worsen in cold weather.

We had a period of unseasonably warm weather in late Feb. Preceded and followed by fairly cold weather. This inconsistency really highlights the effect.

JanFebAnyMonth · 23/03/2021 22:27

Has to be doesn't it. Am surprised it's so marked though.

herecomesthsun · 23/03/2021 22:31

Data from the presentation today (Johnson/ Vallance/ Whitty) here

www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-23-march-2021

JanFebAnyMonth · 23/03/2021 22:31

Just a minute though, that graph shows admissions rising with the temperature, that's the opposite @Doomsdayiscoming .