Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I think Johnson's speech about the virus washing up on our shores really needs to be seen in political terms not in terms of virus transmission. Clearly the virus is already here, and if fully vaccinated our main concern would be variants occurring anywhere in the world. But he wants to calm down the storm about the vaccines, to show some commonality with the Europeans and to pave the way for some sort of compromise possibly.

If I was him I'd offer up some of our vaccines, but only once they've used up what they've got already. Then we could crack on with our vaccination programme while they sort out what ought to be their first priority of getting vaccinations into arms, and undoing some of the anti vaccination sentiment they've whipped up. Letting us get in with it might also help them in a few months if the vaccines really do work and people can see that in the UK we have resumed normal life.

I also think it’s to do with moving the May 17 date for travel. It’s because MPs have to vote soon too.

@MRex I thought herd immunity wasn’t a thing especially after what they have seen happening in Manaus.

[quote Poorlykitten]@MRex I thought herd immunity wasn’t a thing especially after what they have seen happening in Manaus.[/quote]
There was an article laying out why calculations suggested Manaus had only had about 15% infected. Even "immune escape" variants seem to have severe illness protection from vaccines and slow transmission. There's no reason to think we can't reach herd immunity through vaccination.

Going back to the care home worker vaccine take up statistics, someone from Islington and the other councils at the bottom of the league (mostly more inner city, more deprived) needs to go to Tower Hamlets to find out what they’re doing right. Because they are bucking the trend in a big was.

@ExcusesAndAccusations - that's particularly interesting because they were one of the first areas to vaccinate care home residents and staff, but had below 50% staff vaccinations in late January (www.mylondon.news/news/health/london-covid-boroughs-havent-vaccinated-19701404). It could be the strength of local community messaging, but it might also be that it takes time for confidence in the vaccine to build up for some people. Once they see more and more people successfully vaccinated they may feel safer. It would be great to get their imams to speak with other churches, temples and mosques across London about what they've been doing so far though (on zoom or whatever).

Yes I'd guess that's the factor MRex, in the absence of other known factors. Like we hope will happen in Europe.

Have just listened back to Boris yesterday, he said that, as we've seen before, when a wave hits Europe, "it washes up on our shores." But yes I agree it was probably a politically motivated statement. The public may not realise that though!

A question on care home workers - do we know how the numbers are calculated per Borough? Is there a possibility that where a care home worker works across more than one Borough (which seems likely to me, but please correct me if I’m wrong) and is unvaccinated they’re being counted more than once? I imagine there would be many care home workers working as bank/agency and across many homes/boroughs, which I think if I remember correctly was part of the issue with care home outbreaks spreading between homes last year.
And where is that list from? There is one Borough missing

If care home workers don't get decent sick pay they may not want to risk losing a few days to vaccines side effects.

@lurker101

A question on care home workers - do we know how the numbers are calculated per Borough? Is there a possibility that where a care home worker works across more than one Borough (which seems likely to me, but please correct me if I’m wrong) and is unvaccinated they’re being counted more than once? I imagine there would be many care home workers working as bank/agency and across many homes/boroughs, which I think if I remember correctly was part of the issue with care home outbreaks spreading between homes last year. And where is that list from? There is one Borough missing

@lurker101 it a specific tab the the nhs weekly vaccinations update file. Rates for every upper tier council area, plus there should be some methodology notes.

vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html

This is interesting. Like the fact that apparently Italy have used 111% of their vaccine supplies - would this be the Australian consignment they sequestered?

It'll be the extra doses in vials as others have extra too e.g. Denmark's Moderna. When the EC agrees to steal vaccines, I'd have thought it would have to go into general EU distribution rather than be kept by the country that took it? Or am I assuming there's a plan where none exists?

I was going to add... also because most of the excess is Pfizer.
But then I looked at the figures. Italy have 5,681,469 doses administered from 4,546,620 supplied. I thought it was occasionally 6 doses and best case your vial of 5 doses gives 7. They had 909,324 vials so have got over 6.25 doses out per vial. It looks like they're consistently being incredibly frugal and careful. (That or it's a reporting error.)

I don't think this has been mentioned yet, but I think it's worth flagging; the latest ONS Deaths bulletin, released today, says this -

"In Week 10, the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 4.4% below the five-year average (511 fewer deaths); this is the first time that deaths have fallen below the five-year average since the week ending 4 September 2020."

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending12march2021

So deaths are now back to the levels we would expect in a normal year; so far, no excess deaths have been registered for that week.

Given week 10 is the week ending March 12, so 2 weeks ago, and the steady decline in announced deaths (as well as infections/hospitalisations) since then, I think it's safe to say we'll be at the same "no excess deaths" point for a while now.

spec date wise for cases added today for England

Monday 22nd

First day of reporting, 2146 cases added, marginally higher than the 2126 last week.

1m LFD tests vs 1.5m last Monday

Positives from PCRs 12% lower 668 for yesterday as opposed to 756 at equivalent point last week. Slightly more LFTs 1478 vs 1370.

Sunday 21st

Second day of reporting 1980 cases added taking two day total to 4328, 34% up. When fully reported Sunday 14th had 3648 cases.

Saturday 20th 272 cases added, total 3134, 3.6% lower.

Friday 19th

Just 102 more cases, just under 12% down overall (total 4092).

w/c 15th overall

31497 added vs 32125 at equivalent point for the prior week.

I think hospitalisation has well and truly become disconnected from positive cases.

At least sub-3k in hospital come 12th April are baked in.

Thanks @boys3 I’ve found it now 😊

Sunday 21st has a lot of unconfirmed LFTs - 2200 - I am not sure what the equivalent was for 14th i assume it would be the total of confirmed and unconfirmed which is just over 1,000.
Assume lots of secondary school home tests are being done on Sundays - would make sense to be testing just before coming back into school after the weekend?

Secondaries here certainly asking for tests to be done on a Sunday evening - which would tie in with a high number of LFTs reported on the 2nd day.

Sunday 21st has a lot of unconfirmed LFTs - 2200

What is the cut off time for PCR's today, 'cos you would've hoped the worst case for most of the sunday LFD's would be test centre on Monday morning, result Tuesday morning, so you would expect to have them confirmed by then, certainly if we're going to say "false positives don't leave you isolating for long"

The fact the dashboard doesn't distinguish "negative pcr after LFD from no pcr done after LFD" is pretty annoying for that.

@Doomsdayiscoming

I think hospitalisation has well and truly become disconnected from positive cases.

At least sub-3k in hospital come 12th April are baked in.

yes I notice the number of daily admissions has now sunk to the 300s

meanwhile while I definitely see the advantage of LFTs the (false?) positives are definitely keeping up the number of cases. Hopefully in terms of restrictions going forward it will be the hospitalisations and deaths that are more important now .

@Doomsdayiscoming

I think hospitalisation has well and truly become disconnected from positive cases.

At least sub-3k in hospital come 12th April are baked in.

As in hospitalisation will start to stay low even if cases rise?

That would be good

Yes the common testing patterns suggested seem to be mainly Sunday/Wednesday evening, with some Monday and Thursday mornings

The PCR cases reported today are all from tests processed yesterday I believe?