Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@sirfredfredgeorge

Good to see they're working then, that's 1914 cases that wouldn't have been picked up without them

Not even the biggest advocate of LFD's have suggested a zero percent false positive.

Of course not, but false positive's are pretty rare, so won't be a huge number of those 1914 cases. The vast majority of those will be proper positives and therefore good they have been caught.

Anyone got any insight as to why Scotland’s numbers are rising slightly? Is it because fewer of them have had it already so there are more susceptible or because their school lockdown was greater than the English one, so there is a greater level of mixing now?

@Doomsdayiscoming

eg looking at 15th March, 549 LFTs were later confirmed with a PCR
920 were not. Not necessarily 920 false positives, but quite a lot of LFT tests do not a positive PCR make.

if primary school they wont be doing lfts

To suggest 5 individual classes had positive with-symptom PCR's in a borough with so few cases would be stunning, I'm sure like many primary schools the advice on "parents" testing regularly has been extended to young children, I know many of the primary school advice around here has been for the kids to test...

[quote Frazzled2207]@Doomsdayiscoming

eg looking at 15th March, 549 LFTs were later confirmed with a PCR
920 were not. Not necessarily 920 false positives, but quite a lot of LFT tests do not a positive PCR make.[/quote]
Yikes thanks.

1/3 seems a poor conversion rate really.

Behind the curve: they are PCR testing all LFTs positives now right?

@Racoonworld

Wow 17 is brilliant. And cases remaining steady, despite schools open for a few weeks now. Surely this means we can have the relaxations on 29h March?

Some secondary children have only had a total of 7 days in school so far, because of the staggered return for initial testing. Too early to see the full effect. We'll just be starting to see it this week and then many (most?) schools break up for Easter, although some continue until next Wednesday or Thursday.

Scotland case is interesting. I am guessing it is a combination of:

• Lower acquired immunity (more susceptible population left, especially in comparison to places like London);
• Lockdown fatigue (Scottish restrictions dragged out for too long last summer so people might be getting tired of the endless "stay at home" message);
• Weather factor - when temperatures rise / sun comes out, "crowds flock to beaches and parks". Press and social media complain and sometimes throw tantrums but cases tend to go down - indoor socialisation gets replaced by outdoor socialisation where the risk is lower.

But the relaxations on 29th were always going to happen whatever, that is simply stage 2 of Step 1 (or is it step 2 of Stage 1, I get confused?!).

Of course not, but false positive's are pretty rare, so won't be a huge number of those 1914 cases

The latest most up to date estimate of false positives was 1 in 1000, which with 1.7 million tests is 1700, so you'd need to be claiming at least half the best estimate so far rate to get to 50/50.

(now I actually think the number of tests is even higher than 1.7 million but people don't log, but would if it's a positive so the rate is actually different and we won't know at all what the false positive or true positive rate is.)

@JanFebAnyMonth
I think so and because no 'business' openings they don't need official 'notice'. So I think it will happen.

@Doomsdayiscoming
not necessarily. I think most (poss not all) schools will have switched to home tests now which means you can cancel out LFT positives with a PCR positive. But there's nothing to force you getting a PCR. I also wonder if the PCR positives always get 'matched up' with the positive LFTs already in the system. You'd hope so, but I'm sure there is scope for some to not be 'paired'.

@sirfredfredgeorge

if primary school they wont be doing lfts

To suggest 5 individual classes had positive with-symptom PCR's in a borough with so few cases would be stunning, I'm sure like many primary schools the advice on "parents" testing regularly has been extended to young children, I know many of the primary school advice around here has been for the kids to test...

it would certainly be interesting to know. However our primary school has said precisely nothing about encouraging parents to test. Quite a lot of parents are however.

@sirfredfredgeorge

And just found out that there are 5 classes currently self isolating in our primary school now (including my DSs)

Are they all confirmed LFT confirmed PCR or do you not know?

All confirmed PCR

I should say - at least 3 were LFT later confirmed by PCR (2 were staff members who do twice-weekly LFTs, the other the child of a cautious parent who was LFTing the whole family). Don’t know if the others did LFTs first

Is Scotland also not going up slightly because a lower % of the population has been vaccinated? Ergo, when people get fatigued and mix, the impact is greater.

@ceeveebee

I should say - at least 3 were LFT later confirmed by PCR (2 were staff members who do twice-weekly LFTs, the other the child of a cautious parent who was LFTing the whole family). Don’t know if the others did LFTs first

Well as frustrating it is for all concerned it does sounds like an outbreak could have been stopped in its tracks

@Frazzled2207

of the 5342 cases today 1914 are (as yet unconfirmed) LFTs in England. That's a lot.

Sorry for being thick but where can you see which case was a result of which test, or have you calculated this from rates?

Going back to the new Astra Zenecca trial results and the 100% reduction in hospitalisation versus the real world data of 94% from the real world Scottish data - the other big difference is that in the trial they had two doses 4 weeks apart. The initial Scottish (and English) real world data is based on one dose.

(I think the Scottish data is easier to compare than the English data as it gives the total reduction in hospitalisation rather than splitting it into the two components of reduction in catching covid and reduction in hospitalisation if you do catch covid - it's here if anyone hasn't seen it www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n523 )

You can if you look just at England and scroll down a bit. Be aware that some of the LFT that are unconfirmed from today or yesterday will change to confirm ones in a day or two.

Thanks - I swear it wasn't showing for me just now on my phone! Wasn't sure if it was under cases or testing.

Yeah only info for England but not sure the other nations are doing them.
The false positives stay in the system (some are “converted” to lft with positive pcr) so while it’s good that we have a record of how many convert and don’t, it just shows how skewed the current numbers are when as many as a fifth could be false positives

m.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-in-israel-285-new-cases-17-percent-of-tests-return-positive-662662

(The headline/link is wrong, it's 1.8%!)

Good news from Israel. As an aside, the article states that an R below .8 means the virus is receding. Do epidemiologists differ on definitions around R?

New York variant, capable of evading vaccines à la South African:

amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/02/25/health/variants-coronavirus-new-york-city/index.html

Found in UK:
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/14422972/new-york-variant-found-in-the-uk/amp/

Cristina Pagel points out a few holes in Boris's statement that the European third wave will inevitably "wash up on our shores" soon:

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1374092822350020617?s=20&fbclid=IwAR3lnD6S8o-fCHDJCd-31jteZIfdikKcp1YhnlkMeqN0BS633_4KGsJP1DU

@lurker101

Amazing to see on the Interactive Map how many London MSOAs are now suppressed! With a very carefully planned route you could travel from as far west as Putney through North and Central London to Faversham West in Kent without leaving a “Suppressed” MSOA! It’s been a long time since it’s looked like that. Feeling positive today.

I love this. We can also follow a suppressed MSOA path down to the coast in East Sussex and West Sussex.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Cristina Pagel points out a few holes in Boris's statement that the European third wave will inevitably "wash up on our shores" soon:

[[https://mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1374092822350020617?s=20&fbclid=IwAR3lnD6S8o-fCHDJCd]]-31jteZIfdikKcp1YhnlkMeqN0BS633_4KGsJP1DU

That isn't exactly what he said though, he said "feel the effects". The EC vaccine dramas and impact on our food / other goods supply chain will certainly be felt, as will the likely cancellation of any EU holiday plans (except Ireland) due to the growth of E484K variants. The vaccination programme plus T&T are working really well right now, but we're still months from reaching herd immunity level (and some areas have lower vaccination rates than others), so cases will get in and there will be outbreaks. If those cases are soon and Breton variant then that has the potential to cause problems.