Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MRex The Breton variant worries me most.

The possibility of other similar undetectable ones worries me. It does make you wonder why China suddenly started the anal swabs as a way to check for covid.

I'm fine with the idea of anal swabs, to be honest I'd prefer it to throat (I vomit easily, and would find it easier for DS too to just dip it in a fresh poo). Not in public though. (Having visions of a long line of people queuing for a stadium where they have to do anal swabs on the way in...)

twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1373649045433032704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1373649045433032704%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-56474181
Boris Johnson tweeting that there were a record breaking 873,784 vaccines administered yesterday. I assume that's the whole of the UK, not just England. (Doesn't say how many were first it second doses).

(My phone wants to autocorrect Boris as Virus!)

Wow!

Tweet from Hugo Gye

anal swabs are presumably just as ineffective against the "Breton" variant, as if it's simply undetectable because it's not present in the throat/nose mucus then it's also got a completely different transmission system too (although washing hands pretty important still!) So it must be that the reason it's not detectable is that the parts the PCR reproduce on must be different.

That'll soon be addressed with a new test.

Thanks for the breakdown @feelingblue

5,312 new cases reported today. Up a little on last Sunday (4,618) About 100 of the extras are additional LFT undertaken yesterday compared with last Saturday, so mostly it's an increase via PCR testing.

252 less in hospital in England.

That makes it 24.4% (1589) less for the week (Sat through Sat).

Hoping for another 20% this week to take England to approx 3500.

Thanks @MRex that's really helpful.

I think today’s reported cases include around 300 for the NW region which relate to Wednesday 17th and seem to have been delayed by a day or so (most probably should have been in Friday’s reported figures)

specimen dates in England; looks like the Wednesday catch up has fed through.

Saturday 20th

First day of reporting 1086 cases added as compared with 795 equivalent last week.

Friday 19th

Second day of reporting 2223 cases added taking to 3534, 10% lower than equivalent last week

Thursday 18th

Third day of reporting 411 added, taking total to 4466 4.6% lower than equivalent last week

Wednesday 17th

Fourth day of reporting with 648 cases added (in contrast to 94 for equivalent this time last week) taking total to 4868, still 4.7% lower than equivalent last week

wk commencing Monday 15th

Tuesday still almost 10% lower, and Monday 3% lower.

So far 24331 cases added as compared with equivalent point for wk commencing 8th of 25606, so this week so far showing a 5% decline.

Once again Saturday proving a deeply disinterested day for LFDs, 184730.

@Piggywaspushed

Positives starting to roll in in my school : largely sixth formers.

Several areas I look at, where I live and neighbouring areas, where my kids live etc. all seem to be showing increases in children. Lots of yellow on the heat map turning green or green turning blue. Not sure if it is happening everywhere but clear in all the areas I check.

It is making me worry about the coming weeks. Lots of people out and about here and when I went down to the beach there was a big group of people doing some water based stuff but were obviously an organised group. I know it spreads less outdoors but I don't think they are supposed to be doing this yet.

Surely we always expected cases to rise when starting to open up... its latterly impossible for them not too... as long as hospitalizations and deaths are coming down that is now all that matter since they have said a zero covid approach is impossible.... Will be interesting to find out the age groups of the cases... this will be the real eye opener.

There is a lot of complacency about. I really do think traffic levels are completely pre pandemic normal.

I do know in my borough last week it was women aged 40-49 chatterbox.

Thanks for the breakdown by specimen date @boys3. So looks like the overall trend is still slightly downwards, today was just a bit of a catch up day for reporting.

If cases do rise significantly among children I do think that will be a problem. Firstly because it's impossible for Covid to circulate purely in one age group - so some older people will catch it. And secondly because of the level of distribution it causes in kids' education and lives if they are endlessly being told to self isolate for 10 days at a time.

If cases do rise significantly among children I do think that will be a problem

But we have absolutely zero evidence of any rise in kids, because they changed the testing rules and there's absolutely no way to tell, the system has been set up to trash the statistics to be able to see if there's an increase, and at the same time cause maximum disruption of education.

@Chatterbox1987 this is based on the dashboard detailed data yesterday. It won't have drastically changed with today's figures; but worth another look in a few more day's time.

@Firefliess

Thanks for the breakdown by specimen date *@boys3*. So looks like the overall trend is still slightly downwards, today was just a bit of a catch up day for reporting.

If cases do rise significantly among children I do think that will be a problem. Firstly because it's impossible for Covid to circulate purely in one age group - so some older people will catch it. And secondly because of the level of distribution it causes in kids' education and lives if they are endlessly being told to self isolate for 10 days at a time.

But if all older age groups are vaccinated then is that an issue? Not sure if you mean in the next couple of months or long term. By the time it’s more prevalent older age groups will be vaccinated to higher proportion.

On disruption at some point we won’t close classes and child with symptoms will stay home?

.

The challenge of keeping any outbreak confined to children is obviously hardest over the next couple of months while the other age groups are not vaccinated. But even once they are, big outbreaks among children will unavoidable spread to older people who are unvaccinated or for whom the vaccine doesn't work.

And in terms of the disruption, we could - in time - change the rules are only require children who actually have Covid to isolate, not all their contacts (or maybe resurrect the idea of daily LFTs for contacts, allowing them into school if negative) But there don't seem to be any plans for that. I done really see any plan at all for children in the coming year. Teenagers in particularly have been unfairly blamed for a lot during this pandemic. I worry that some older people might start wanting to avoid under 18s, or places (pubs, restaurants, etc) making them unwelcome if they are unvaccinated and Covid left to spread unchecked among them.

@sirfred I agree that the introduction of all the extra testing for pupils has messed up the stats at the moment, but that shouldn't be a permanent problem. We should be able to see in a week or two whether rates are actually going up fast in schools, or whether it was just a one off increase at the start of term. And the ONS and React studies too will give data - we just need to wait a little longer for it.

@Firefliess

The challenge of keeping any outbreak confined to children is obviously hardest over the next couple of months while the other age groups are not vaccinated. But even once they are, big outbreaks among children will unavoidable spread to older people who are unvaccinated or for whom the vaccine doesn't work.

And in terms of the disruption, we could - in time - change the rules are only require children who actually have Covid to isolate, not all their contacts (or maybe resurrect the idea of daily LFTs for contacts, allowing them into school if negative) But there don't seem to be any plans for that. I done really see any plan at all for children in the coming year. Teenagers in particularly have been unfairly blamed for a lot during this pandemic. I worry that some older people might start wanting to avoid under 18s, or places (pubs, restaurants, etc) making them unwelcome if they are unvaccinated and Covid left to spread unchecked among them.

@sirfred I agree that the introduction of all the extra testing for pupils has messed up the stats at the moment, but that shouldn't be a permanent problem. We should be able to see in a week or two whether rates are actually going up fast in schools, or whether it was just a one off increase at the start of term. And the ONS and React studies too will give data - we just need to wait a little longer for it.

I think it’ll be tolerated (unvaccinated) and we’ll see change to rules to lower disruption.

Maybe after June 21 it all adults vaccinated. Really hard to say though, esp as nothing has been said on it.

Or all adults..

@sirfredfredgeorge

If cases do rise significantly among children I do think that will be a problem

But we have absolutely zero evidence of any rise in kids, because they changed the testing rules and there's absolutely no way to tell, the system has been set up to trash the statistics to be able to see if there's an increase, and at the same time cause maximum disruption of education.

Locally I'm looking at tests from the 4th March when schools started testing and all under 14 were negative. Schools returned on the 8th, by the 10th the 5 to 9 year old had turned green and on the 11th the 0 to 4s and 10 to 14 year olds had joined them and all remain green. Probably very small numbers but it did seem to change quickly.