Marsha, there are lots of reports that the Telegraph and other media published the hoped for timescales AFTER a government media briefing. Perhaps they interpreted what was said optimistically, it it was following a government briefing which focused on the fact they had increased vaccine supply for the end of March (that’s the increas in doses being seen now) and it was full steam ahead....ie, not a sudden stop, which has had to happen.
Regarding when everyone would be offered and when everyone will actually have their vaccines is 2 different things. You can consider people have been offered the vaccine when the national booking site opens up to their age. That’s the point when everyone in that group is eligible to book. Not everyone looks there or knows and that’s why letters are sent out too. They can arrive a week later. It wasn’t unrealistic to think all 40s could have been eligible to book on the website by the end of March or Easter. And then people book over a period of time. Some book as soon as the booking site will allow them (sometimes before the front page is updated with their age) and others as soon as the front page updates and others when they get their letter. Some don’t book then because they don’t want to go the mass centres which can involve a journey and instead want to wait for a GP local based invite which might come at a similar time as the national invitation or can be 2-3 weeks later as GPs follow up those who haven’t booked. Then there are those who need several phone calls to actually book (just disorganised) or who need a home visit or a chat with the GP as they are hesitant.
Any individual group takes ages to be done and is never done in total. There are still over 80s and over 70s not done.ll.not because they haven’t been eligible and invited, but because of a variety of these reasons above. The GPs have to keep ‘mopping up’ and will be doing so long after the 18s have all been invited. It’s just the reality. But once the majority have booked, they don’t just wait for the last ones to be done but move into the next group and do mop up at same time. It makes sense when you think about it....we need speed with this, rather than insisting every person over 80 has accepted a vaccine before moving o to the next group. So, all over 50s wouldn’t have been jabbed by the time it was offered to 40s. Some would have booked for 2 weeks ahead and be waiting to go and some wouldn’t have booked for all the reasons mentioned earlier. It was never likely all 40s would have actually been jabbed by Easter. What would have been possible was that it was open to booking for all 40s by Easter or even the end of March. The it’s up to people to actually get on and book and attend. GPs would later then follow up those who didn’t.
It’s a complex system. People are invited in priority order by the national system. GP led system is at slightly different points across the country, largely reflecting different age demographics. But people don’t get jabbed in exact order. Some don’t book, some don’t attend....and the programme keeps rolling out, even when they don’t. They are followed up (often many times) but that’s alongside the rollout to younger groups, not instead of rolling out to younger groups.
60s were offered 2 weeks ago, 55s last week, 50s this week, so 45s could well have been booking next week. That’s what the media said and that’s what the rollout pattern looked like. And that was with factoring in 2nd doses and mop up of those not done in earlier groups. That was the plan. But now supply means there’s enough to offer to all the 50 s who will book and do the mop up and do the 2nd doses which absolutely must happen....but not enough toe spandex the rollout behind that.
45+ are just unlucky the supply problem came as it was about to get to them. It could have happened 2 weeks ago and impacted 50s.
The over 45s haven’t just ‘got ahead of themselves’ and been expecting something there was no basis of . The system was moving speedily towards them being offered, Sir Simon said at briefings to the public (about 2-3 weeks ago when phase 2 was mentioned) that there would be a move immediately from phase 1 (over 50s) to phase 2 (under 50s) and the government briefed the media at the end of last week about how brilliantly it was going and they then reported 40s were imminent. But it’s true that the government official timescales never give dates for individual grouos and only ever gave 15 April and end of July as dates for phase 1 and 2. But within those dates, people following have a sense and the media reports and government indicates where individual age cohorts might be within those broad timeframes. That did happen and it is that which has now changed.
Upper 40s didn’t imagine it or get ahead of themselves or want to queue jump or deny 2nd dosers their jab or the 80s who still haven’t been done e theirs. The government was geared up to rollout to 40s and had to pull back. The letter on NHS England to vaccine providers (the letter which caused the fuss on Weds and is still there) clearly tells sites to pull back and close bookings and not post the slots they were expecting to post. It was a very real step change.